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The winners and losers of Antarctica’s great thaw
When you think of Antarctica, you probably picture vast, continuous ice sheets and glaciers, with maybe a penguin or two thrown in. Yet most Antarctic plants and animals live in the permanently ice-free areas that cover about 1% of the continent. Our new research predicts that these areas could grow by a quarter during this century, with mixed prospects for the species that currently live there.
Besides everyone’s favourite Emperor and Adélie penguins, terrestrial Antarctic species also include beautiful mosses, lichens, two types of flowering plants, and a suite of hardy invertebrates such as nematodes, springtails, rotifers and tardigrades, many of which are found nowhere else on Earth. Tardigrades – tiny creatures sometimes nicknamed “waterbears” – are so tough they can survive in space.
Antarctica’s ice-free areas are currently limited to a scattering of rocky outcrops along the coastline, or cliff faces, or the tops of mountain ranges. They form small patches of suitable habitat in a huge sea of ice, much like islands.
As a result, the plants and animals that live there are often isolated from each other. But as Antarctica’s climate warms, we expect ice-free areas to get bigger and eventually start joining up. This would create more habitat for native species, but also new opportunities for non-native species to spread.
Our study, published today in Nature, forecasts that climate change will expand Antarctica’s ice-free areas over the course of this century. Under the most severe scenario that we modelled (which is also the one on which the globe is currently tracking), more than 17,000 square km of new ice-free area could emerge across the continent by 2100.
This would increase the current total ice-free area by nearly a quarter. The majority of this new ice-free land will be on the Antarctic Peninsula, which could have three times as much ice-free area as it does today.
Projected Antarctic ice melt this century. Lee et al. (2017) Nature Brave new worldAs the ice-free areas expand, the distances between them will decrease, giving plants and animals more opportunity to spread through the landscape. On the Antarctic Peninsula, which has already warmed more than anywhere else in Antarctica, many of the ice-free patches will expand so much that they will start joining together.
Will this increase in habitat availability benefit the plants and animals that live there? It will definitely provide new opportunities for some native plants and animals to expand their range and colonise new areas. The warming climate may also give a boost to species that are currently hampered by the lack of warmth, nutrients and water. Some Antarctic mosses, for example, are expected to grow faster as temperatures rise, and Antarctica’s two flowering plant species are already expanding southward.
However, the potential benefits seem likely to be outweighed by the negatives. The joining-up of habitat patches could allow species that have been isolated for much of their evolutionary past to meet suddenly. If the newcomers to a particular area outcompete the native species, then it may lead to localised extinctions. Over the coming centuries this could lead to the loss of many plants and animals, and the homogenisation of Antarctica’s ecosystems.
Antarctic aliensAn even bigger concern is that Antarctica’s great thaw could provide new opportunities for species to invade. Antarctica’s best bulwark against non-native species is its harsh climate and extreme weather, to which native Antarctic species have spent many thousands of years adapting.
A native Frisea springtail. Melissa HoughtonWe already know that many plants and invertebrates are reaching Antarctica, most often in food or cargo shipments. As the climate warms, some of these non-native species may be able to establish themselves on the Antarctic Peninsula, and the increasing connectivity will allow them to easily move through the landscape. Many of these animals and plants may become invasive, competing with the native species for space and resources.
We don’t know how Antarctica’s species will cope with the increasing competition. But if the sub-Antarctic islands provide any indication, the outlook is depressing. Australia’s World Heritage-listed Macquarie Island, for example, was severely impacted by invasive cats, rats, rabbits and mice (although it has since been declared free of these pests after an intensive eradication effort).
Several non-native species have already come to Antarctica, including the invasive annual meadowgrass Poa annua (a common weed around the world), which has colonised newly ice-free areas left behind by retreating glaciers. It is thought to outcompete Antarctica’s native plants, although we don’t yet know what the impact will be on animals.
Invasive meadowgrass on Macquarie Island. Laura WilliamsHumans – both scientists and tourists – are key transporters of non-native species to the continent, and tourist numbers continue to grow (almost 37,000 visited in the 2016-17 summer).
Biosecurity is paramount for the ongoing protection of Antarctica. If bags, shoes, clothes and field equipment are not properly cleaned and inspected before arriving on the continent, then non-native seeds, microbes and insects could be transported to Antarctica and begin to spread.
We call for protection of ice-free areas that will remain intact in a changing climate, and for the Antarctic scientific and tourism communities to pinpoint key areas where greater biosecurity and monitoring for invasive species may be needed.
Jasmine Lee is also affiliated with CSIRO. She receives funding from from the Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment - Equity Trustees Charitable Foundation, the Ecological Society of Australia, and the Australian Antarctic Science Program (Project 4297).
Justine Shaw receives funding from Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Programme through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub
Richard Fuller receives funding from the Australian Research Council.
Cockatoos play drum solos to attract mates – video
Researchers have captured footage of cockatoos in North Queensland, Australia, playing drum solos with little sticks and pods in an attempt to attract the opposite sex
World has three years left to stop dangerous climate change, warn experts
Former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres among signatories of letter warning that the next three years will be crucial to stopping the worst effects of global warming
Avoiding dangerous levels of climate change is still just about possible, but will require unprecedented effort and coordination from governments, businesses, citizens and scientists in the next three years, a group of prominent experts has warned.
Warnings over global warming have picked up pace in recent months, even as the political environment has grown chilly with Donald Trump’s formal announcement of the US’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement. This year’s weather has beaten high temperature records in some regions, and 2014, 2015 and 2016 were the hottest years on record.
Continue reading...How San Francisco is leading the way out of bottled water culture
The city is not just restricting sales but working to ensure people have access to safe high-quality tap water
Americans drink enough bottled water each week to circle the globe two times around. That was one of the many alarming facts that motivated politicians in San Francisco to pursue a progressive environmental regulation no other major US city had dared – a ban on bottled water.
The liberal California city had previously led the way on banning plastic shopping bags, but the 2014 proposal to restrict bottled water was more modest. Although the board of supervisors voted unanimously to phase out the sale of single-use plastic water bottles, the rule only applied to city property.
Continue reading...Robots to mine the ocean floor: the risks and rewards of deep-sea mining – video
On the seabed, where the water is as dark as ink, lies a vast treasure of untouched resources. Nautilus Minerals will use remote-controlled robots to steamroll the bottom of the Bismarck Sea off the coast of Papua New Guinea – but this emerging technology could forever scar the landscape of the sea
Continue reading...Climate change is an energy problem, so let's talk honestly about nuclear
Fear of nuclear energy runs deep but it may be the most efficient and clean energy source we have, albeit with complications
Of all the hazards facing humankind, climate change is the single greatest threat we have ever faced. In a few short decades, we have altered the climate more than we ever thought possible and now, in the midst of the greatest heatwave recorded in decades in the hottest year on record, we are finally beginning to countenance the scale of problem before us.
The poorest of the poor have been the first to suffer – droughts and food shortages are already imperilling the lives of countless millions, with ensuing conflicts threatening even more. We have rendered some areas uninhabitable, and the number of climate refugees will only increase. Even we privileged folk in the western world are no longer immune, with the dangers steadily encroaching.
Continue reading...China's informal army of recyclers keep plastic bottles out of landfill
In the global rush for bottled water, China leads the way. But while cities lack official recycling schemes, some residents are turning the tide of plastic waste into cash and keeping it out of landfil in the process
In the great global rush for bottled water, nowhere is thirstier than Asia. Demand is predicted to surge by more than 140% across the region this decade, to account for one-third of the global total by 2020.
China leads the way. The country accounted for 28% of the global demand for polyethylene terephthalate (Pet) bottles in 2015. Consumers bought 73.8bn bottles of water in 2016, up more than five billion on the previous year.
Continue reading...A million bottles a minute: world's plastic binge 'as dangerous as climate change'
Exclusive: Annual consumption of plastic bottles is set to top half a trillion by 2021, far outstripping recycling efforts and jeopardising oceans, coastlines and other environments
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A million plastic bottles are bought around the world every minute and the number will jump another 20% by 2021, creating an environmental crisis some campaigners predict will be as serious as climate change.
New figures obtained by the Guardian reveal the surge in usage of plastic bottles, more than half a trillion of which will be sold annually by the end of the decade.
UK risks becoming 'dumping ground' for plastic after Brexit
UK will not be bound by EU deal and opposition MPs say Tory government unlikely to have political will to develop equivalent system
The UK risks becoming the “dirty man of Europe” after Brexit with no plan to deal with the millions of plastic bottles dumped by consumers every week, according to politicians and leading environmental campaigners.
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Continue reading...Flying ant day: when virgin queens and male drones mate on the wing
After warm weather and summer rain, flying ants emerge from nests for a mass mating event to ensure survival and dispersal of the species
A steady stream of black ants scurries in and out of a crack in the patio. They have been living there quietly for weeks. Perhaps you tried to get rid of them – especially if they were taking sugar from the kitchen or crawling across your bedroom. Perhaps you ignored them, or marvelled at their ability to navigate over apparently featureless paving stones back to their nest.
Then we have a spell of warm weather, a summer downpour, and when it stops there are winged explorers erupting from the ground – welcome to flying ant day!
Continue reading...Mayors of 7,400 cities vow to meet Obama's climate commitments
‘Global covenant of mayors’ to work together on climate change whether current White House resident agrees or not
Mayors of more than 7,400 cities across the world have vowed that Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris accord will spur greater local efforts to combat climate change.
At the first meeting of a “global covenant of mayors”, city leaders from across the US, Europe and elsewhere pledged to work together to keep to the commitments made by Barack Obama two years ago.
Continue reading...Climate scientists just debunked deniers' favorite argument | Dana Nuccitelli
And in the process, illustrated the difference between skepticism and denial
Whenever they hold one of their frequent hearings to reject and deny established climate science, congressional Republicans invariably trot out contrarian scientist John Christy, who disputes the accuracy of climate models. In doing so, Christy uses a cherry-picked, error riddled chart, but there’s a nugget of truth in his argument. Although the discrepancy isn’t nearly as large as Christy’s misleading chart suggests, atmospheric temperatures seem not to have warmed quite as fast since the turn of the century as climate model simulations anticipated they would.
Continue reading...Swarm of bees take up temporary residence in New York's Times Square – video
Around 30,000 honey bees swarm on a ledge at One Times Square, where the New Year’s Eve ball drop happens, in New York. Andrew Coté, a fourth generation beekeeper of AndrewsHoney.com, was called to the rescue and used a vacuum to suck up the bees, who he said were looking for a new home
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