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Toyota has imported three Mirai hydrogen fuel-cell sedans to demonstrate the technology to Australian officialdom and motorists over the next few years.

You can only truly understand the weather by flying above the clouds. NASA

Bob Walker, an adviser to US President-elect Donald Trump, has set alarm bells ringing by recommending that NASA’s climate monitoring programs be axed.

But his dismissal of the “politicised science” at NASA’s Earth Science Division shows an ignorance of the breadth, role and significance of its contributions to society in the United States and worldwide.

It’s unclear what exactly Walker means by his comment that “future programs should definitely be placed with other agencies”. Is the plan merely to shuffle the deckchairs – same science, different badge — or is it code for cutting the research observation and monitoring efforts altogether?

If the former, it is hard to see what it would achieve, beyond risking a loss of expertise as other agencies attempt to develop the same capabilities as NASA. But the latter is a frightening prospect, because it would effectively take us back to what climate scientists refer to as the “pre-satellite era”.

The global climate system is, well, global. There are places where there is no one around to take measurements, such as the vast expanses of our oceans, the central desert of Australia, and the Arctic and Antarctic regions. But what happens in these remote areas affects the climate elsewhere; the atmosphere has no boundary and the oceans are linked.

Before satellites, the patchiness of weather and climate observations for much of the globe made it hard to detect the patterns that govern rainfall, temperatures and winds.

Now we have a continuous global view of Earth, courtesy of NASA’s Earth observation satellite program. Cutting this research and returning to the pre-satellite era would leave us ignorant not only of Earth’s climate processes, but also of whether or not our environmental policies are effective.

The value of satellites

For more than three decades in the early 20th century, the British meteorologist Sir Gilbert T. Walker searched the sparse climate records for patterns that could explain why the Indian monsoon failed in some years. After some laborious number-crunching, he put forward the concept of the “Southern Oscillation”, describing sea-level pressure differences between Darwin and Tahiti in the South Pacific. His Southern Oscillation Index is still used today.

When sea-level pressure is lower in Tahiti than Darwin, it causes wind patterns that bring drought to India and northeast Australia, Walker suggested. But the Southern Oscillation was only part of the story.

Almost half a century later, in the late 1960s, early NASA satellite data provided an unprecedented look at the patterns of clouds above the Pacific Ocean. This helped the meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes to link Walker’s sea-level pressure oscillations with other variables such as wind, rainfall (clouds) and ocean temperature variations right across the tropical Pacific.

Crucially, he identified a low-rainfall zone in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific – of which Walker, with his patchy data, had been completely unaware. The “chain reaction” between the atmosphere and ocean now known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation emerged in part from NASA satellite imagery.

A visualisation of the strong El Niño that developed in 1997, using NASA sea-surface height data from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. NASA

Of course, the holy grail when it comes to El Niño is to forecast events ahead of time, because El Niño is a major factor in bringing droughts and floods to countries bordering the Pacific Oceans. This has huge consequences for millions of livelihoods. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology uses NASA satellite and model data to forecast an impending El Niño three to six months ahead of time, while real-time observations help to assess the impacts once the event actually arrives.

This level of forecasting and monitoring was a pipe dream in the pre-satellite era. The same could be said about a host of other global phenomena – from severe storms, to massive wildfires, to air pollution.

Verifying policy decisions

If President-elect Trump really needs yet more certainty that human-induced global warming is not a hoax and that the recently enacted Paris Agreement will have a meaningful impact, then one of the best ways to achieve this would be to boost NASA’s Earth Science Division.

NASA satellites recently demonstrated the success of US and European environmental regulations in improving air quality over the past decade. NASA has also been central to monitoring the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol, the global agreement to safeguard the ozone layer. By keeping a close watch on the size and extent of the ozone hole, NASA has helped to show that it is beginning to recover and that the policy is working.

Our advice to Trump

Gilbert T. Walker wrote in 1940:

I think that the relationships of world weather are so complex that our only chance of explaining them is to accumulate the facts empirically.

His present-day namesake and Trump adviser Bob Walker also says “we need good science to tell us what the reality is”. One of President-elect Trump’s best chances of achieving this aim is to continue funding scientists to observe Earth from space.

So our advice to Trump is to look beyond the cheap talk about politicisation and appreciate the importance of the work done by NASA’s Earth Science Division. This is not, as Bob Walker asserts, “politically correct environmental monitoring” (whatever that is), but essential data that are already being used to ensure society’s health and wellbeing.

As for climate change science, the division’s reports on global temperatures are solely based on robust data. What’s being politicised here is not the science but the story that the science tells: that the planet is warming. Let’s not shoot the messenger.

Helen McGregor receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the University of Wollongong. McGregor is a member of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, the American Geophysical Union and the Australasian Quaternary Association.

Jenny Fisher receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Department of the Environment, NASA, and the University of Wollongong. Fisher is a member of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and the American Geophysical Union.

JinkoSolar has completed delivery on 140 MWdc of PV modules for the North Star project located in Chisago County, Minnesota

On 25 November 2016, environment Ministers endorsed the report on the review and agreed to revise the Strategy based on the review’s findings.

Women of science around the world sign a pledge to combat discrimination in the wake of the US election.

Ephemeral wetlands are poorly understood habitats and are being lost to future generations as a result of poor land-use practices, warn scientists.

Memo to media: Ignore what Trump says, focus on what he does and who he appoints.

Victoria Coalition vote against rise in solar feed in tariff suggests it wants solar to be paid less than brown coal fired generation.

There were signs at COP22 that several countries have begun the long-term planning needed to avoid dangerous climate change.

The Australian and Queensland governments are investing more than $45 million over six years to tackle sediment run-off.

The world needs to produce more food to feed a growing population, but is automation and sensor technology the answer?

Plans to expand Heathrow Airport are set to breach the government’s climate change laws, advisers warn.

South Australia wholesale prices fall below Queensland and NSW, despite some more $14,000/MWh price events engineered by peaking gas plants.

Scientists are warning there’s now so much space debris in low-Earth orbit that action needs to be taken.

A controversial pesticide, linked to a decline in insect species, may soon be banned in Canada.

While much of the media focus at this month’s climate meeting in Marrakech (COP22) was on US President-elect Donald Trump, there were signs that several countries have begun the long-term planning needed to avoid dangerous climate change.

During the conference, four countries – Germany, Canada, Mexico and the United States – presented their 2050 climate plans. Under Article 4 of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, all countries are asked to prepare mid-century, long-term strategies to bring greenhouse gas emissions down to low levels.

A common theme from COP22 was the emphasis on long-term strategies to help guide short-term actions. When launching the 2050 Pathways Platform, Laurence Tubiana, the outgoing French high-level climate champion, stated that if you don’t have a plan for the long term, you can’t know what a good decision is today.

Climate change in 2050

The German Climate Action Plan 2050, approved by the German cabinet this month, foreshadows a reduction in greenhouse gases of up to 95% below 1990 levels by 2050. It covers energy, buildings, transport, industry, agriculture and land use, and sets specific milestones and targets for each sector.

As part of its plan, the German government will set up a commission to work with industry and trade unions on the energy transition to 2050. The commission will consider economic development, structural change and social compatibility to accompany climate action. Australia could also consider such an approach to achieve a just transition to a net zero carbon economy.

The United States Mid-Century Strategy sets out several different pathways by which the United States can cut emissions by at least 80% below 2005 levels by 2050 while maintaining a thriving economy. The pathways portray a transformation to a low-carbon energy system using solar, wind, nuclear, hydro and carbon capture.

Under the plan, nearly all fossil fuel plants without carbon capture are to be phased out by 2050. The plan also shows that the land sector in the United States could sequester 23-45% of economy-wide emissions in 2050 by expanding forests and increasing the carbon stored in croplands and grasslands.

Canada’s long-term plan aims to reduce emissions by 80% or more below 2005 levels by 2050. Mexico will reduce its emissions by 50% from 2000 levels. Both plans outline detailed pathways for achieving these emissions reductions.

To support countries, states, cities and businesses to prepare long-term low-emission plans, the 2050 pathways platform initiative was launched at Marrakech. Already 22 countries have started to formulate 2050 plans, including China and India, as have many states, cities and businesses.

New policies and technology

Developing a long-term plan helps identify the policy measures and technological advancements that are needed now. To this end, Marrakech also hosted the first Low-Emission Solutions Conference associated with a climate congress. The conference brought together technical experts, scientists, academics, business and politicians to brainstorm and exchange information about the technological and policy pathways needed to reach net zero carbon emissions.

The Sustainable Development Solutions Network director, Professor Jeff Sachs, told the conference that we need more than political will to make this transition.

We need to mobilise scientists, engineers and experts to identify what the new energy and economic system will look like and to devise pathways to a net zero carbon economy. This will help businesses to identify risks and opportunities and help governments not to waste money on technologies that are not compatible with the long-term goal.

The four pillars of decarbonisation

The conference highlighted the four basic elements of deep decarbonisation. These also underpin the Australian Deep Decarbonisation Pathway Plan developed by ClimateWorks and ANU.

First, there needs to be ambitious energy efficiency across the economy. This includes “smart grid” technologies, green buildings and greater fuel economy in vehicles.

Second, we need zero-carbon electricity supplied by renewables or a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage. The contributions of each of these to the energy mix will depend on country circumstances and on whether carbon capture can be made commercial.

Third, we need a shift to electrification using zero-carbon electricity. This means using electricity to power vehicles and switching from gas to electricity in homes.

Finally, non-energy emissions are reduced by storing more carbon in forests and land as well as reducing methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases from agriculture, waste and industry.

The Australian government has committed to review its climate policies next year and to consider a long-term emissions reduction target. This is an opportunity for Australia to use these four elements of deep decarbonisation and join other countries in preparing a 2050 deep decarbonisation plan.

Already, South Australia, Victoria, NSW and the ACT have pledged a target of zero net emissions by 2050, with South Australia and the ACT signing the UN’s Under 2MOU (a memorandum between states and regions to keep global warming below 2℃). A number of states, including Queensland, have also set ambitious renewable energy targets.

2050 may seem a long way off in the short time frame that dominates so much of modern politics. By 2050 Donald Trump will be 104 and presumably will exert limited influence over global politics.

However, it is worth noting that the children entering our schools next February will still be in their thirties in 2050. They will have a real interest in ensuring that we start planning for their future and taking action now.

John Thwaites is Chair of Monash Sustainable Development Institute and ClimateWorks Australia. These organisations receive funding from governments, business and from philanthropic foundations including the Myer Foundation, the Ian Potter Foundation and the Harold Mitchell Foundation. John Thwaites is a global Co-Chair of the Leadership Council of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network.

ClimateWorks is funded by philanthropy through The Myer Foundation with Monash University. ClimateWorks Australia also periodically conducts research with funding from Federal, State and local governments and from private companies; all our work is focused on supporting strong emissions reductions in Australia. The author has no other relevant affiliations

It is staggering that in 2016, the hottest year on record, the chancellor can present a budget that has no mention of climate change (Report, 24 November). Indeed, most policies and spending plans are heading in the wrong direction. We have more money for new roads and fracking keeps its subsidy, but cuts to the local authorities who subsidise bus services. 

The freeze on fuel duty is another backward step and shows that the government cares nothing about climate change, air pollution or public health. Last year saw a record number of vehicles on our roads, especially in rural areas where bus services have been decimated. The government could bring us healthier air and less congestion by raising fuel duty and using the money to reverse the devastating cuts to buses. We need to give people the choice of travelling by public transport, walking and cycling, but that can only happen if we make the polluter pay and use the money raised to invest in things that are good for our health and our environment.
Jenny Jones
Green party, House of Lords

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The claim that Greece may receive an unfair exemption to increase lignite use (Report, 3 November, theguardian.com) is not justified – it is based on misinterpretations:

1) Greece is not trying to “revive its lignite-based model”. In fact, retirements of fossil fuel plants in 2014-23 amount to 4,095MW, including 2,671MW of lignite capacity.

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Move hailed as first formal reintroduction of a once native mammal in the UK

Large populations of wild beavers living in the southern and western Highlands of Scotland are to be allowed to expand naturally after ministers granted them protected status.

For the first time since it was hunted to extinction about 300 years ago, the beaver will be officially designated as a native British species,the Scottish environment secretary announced on Thursday.

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Environmental groups hope Utah, Nevada and Grand Canyon will be included in rapid conservation efforts as Trump plans to expand fossil fuel extraction

Barack Obama’s administration is rushing through conservation safeguards for large areas of public land ahead of Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House, presenting a conundrum for the new president’s goal of opening up more places for oil and gas drilling.

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