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All countries will have to reduce emissions. Coal image from www.shutterstock.com

The Paris climate agreement was an important success for climate diplomacy as nation states showed a strong will to cooperate on climate action.

But instead of imposing binding national emission targets, the Paris Agreement is based on voluntary country commitments (known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions- INDCs). This poses some challenges.

First, the INDCs proposed so far are not enough to limit warming to well below 2℃, aiming for 1.5℃, as agreed in Paris. The INDCs shift a large burden of the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to after 2030.

Second, the INDCs cannot, yet, be verified and compared in a transparent manner to build mutual trust over time.

Third, countries lack incentives to increase their level of ambition without reducing their competitiveness as well as securities that other countries do not free-ride; to counteract this the right institutions are needed.

Lastly, the INDCs do not automatically become national law after a country ratifies the Paris agreement. Only the promise to review and revise INDCs every five years is legally binding. Countries have to make an additional effort to include their proposed climate policy in their other national policies – for example to counteract the expansion of coal power plants.

Raising the bar

To be effective, the Paris agreement, or any international agreement, has to address these challenges. In this respect, sufficiently high national carbon prices that increase over time would be a meaningful climate policy instrument for three main reasons.

First, carbon prices are relatively easy to compare and represent a transparent indicator of the ambition level of national climate policies.

Second, a carbon price drives up the cost of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, rendering high-emission forms of energy (such as coal power) unprofitable over the long term and low-emission technologies (such as wind and solar) competitive.

Third, the additional revenue from carbon pricing could remain in the respective countries and be used to achieve other societal targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals.

When negotiating international carbon prices, for example in the context of the G20, individual countries would pledge to increase their domestic carbon price levels via emission taxes, fossil energy taxes, or emissions trading schemes featuring a price floor.

However, these price increases would only come into effect if other countries were likewise implementing high prices. This strategy would circumvent the concern that carbon pricing leads to competitive disadvantages. It would also include a sanctioning mechanism if participants were to lower their carbon prices.

Sharing the burden

A truly global coordination and increase of carbon prices can only occur if an effective burden sharing scheme is implemented. To engage developing countries, transfer payments are necessary. A particular country would receive international support if they accept a national carbon price.

Funds would have to increase with the price level, compensating for higher emissions reduction costs. Reducing the level of ambition would lead to a loss of international support.

This mechanism in turn increases the trust that other countries will pursue ambitious climate policies themselves. The climate finance envisaged in the Paris Agreement could be a main pillar of this strategy.

This article was co-authored by Christian Flachsland, head of governance group, and Ulrike Kornek post-doc in the governance group at the Mercator Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change.

Ottmar Edenhofer will be in Australia from 13-17 June and will present public lectures in Brisbane (University of Queensland), Canberra (ANU) and Melbourne (Climate and Energy College).

Ottmar Edenhofer is Director of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change.

The zoo in Georgia's capital Tbilisi has been slowly re-populating with animals, after flooding last year killed nearly half of its former residents.

GREAT MOMENTS IN SCIENCE: How did the Bitcoin virtual money system get started? Dr Karl takes a bite out of history.

Long-distance flights enable aerial hunters to feed their young whatever the weather

For Britain’s breeding birds – especially those migrants that spend only a short time here before heading back to their winter home in Africa – June is a crucial month.

Plentiful sunshine – June is usually the sunniest month of the year in England and Wales, thanks to the long hours of daylight – provide the vast amounts of insects and invertebrates that these birds require to feed their young.

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Coal is a relatively cheap, abundant and well-established source of energy. Ray Hornsay/Flickr, CC BY-SA

As the world moves to combat climate change, it’s increasingly doubtful that coal will continue to be a viable energy source, because of its high greenhouse gas emissions. But coal played a vital role in the Industrial Revolution and continues to fuel some of the world’s largest economies. This series looks at coal’s past, present and uncertain future.

The availability of efficient and reliable energy for industrial, agricultural and household use is critical for productivity growth and improvement in human wellbeing. But many people across the planet live in a state of energy poverty.

The energy-poor are people living without electricity services and clean energy – for cooking, lighting, heating and other daily needs. According to the World Bank, one-third of the world’s economies have severe energy crises and about 1.1 billion people lack access to electricity.

A large population in developing economies, particularly in Africa, relies on traditional biomass sources of energy that themselves cause problems, such as severe deforestation and carbon pollution. What’s more, many inhabitants of these countries face power outages of up to 20 hours a day.

An economical and sustainable energy source for deprived populations is clearly needed.

Enter coal

Coal is a relatively cheap, abundant and well-established source of energy, but it’s also a major source of carbon pollution. Hence the controversy about whether burning coal can end energy poverty in the coming decades.

In the past, coal has occupied a significant share in the energy mix of developing economies, but it has been under attack due to its emissions, which include sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide.

Amid calls for the use of efficient and clean technologies for electricity generation, the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal has already embarked on dynamic pathways to achieve energy efficiency and sustainability and combat carbon emissions. China’s initiatives for boosting the use of renewable energy sources, cutting the use of high-ash coal and resuming import tariffs on coal have reshaped the global energy mix landscape.

Coal is a relatively cheap, abundant and well-established source of energy, but it’s a major source of carbon pollution. Señor Codo/Flickr, CC BY-SA

Likewise, other developing countries including India are changing their energy mix by shifting their focus to renewables to reduce their reliance on coal-based energy. Although more than 50% of India’s new electricity generation is expected to be met by renewables, the country still needs to rely on coal-based generation to meet expanding demand.

The World Bank has already paused funding for new coal power generation except for exceptional cases, leaving a question mark over coal as a cure for global energy poverty.

But the slowdown in world coal demand is partly due to China’s structural shift away from construction and export-led manufacturing, which has significantly reduced coal prices. This has, in turn, slashed revenues of many exporting countries. And the collapse in prices is resulting in the closure of many mining businesses as companies are unable to recover production costs.

Still, energy-poor developing economies need coal as a cheap and readily available resource to provide electricity for their growing populations unless they find a way to completely replace it with alternative renewable sources.

Current and future trends

Many developing economies are facing a huge shortfall in electricity and are expanding their energy production capacity. This situation is likely to intensify as the world population increases. By the end of 2030, developing countries will need about 950 terawatt-hours electricity to meet their energy needs.

Consider India, which has the second-largest population in the world. It accounts for only 6% of global energy consumption and has 240 million people without access to electricity. With another 315 million Indians expected to move to urban areas in the next few decades, the country’s energy demand is likely to surge in the coming years.

Neighbouring Pakistan is facing a serious energy crisis and many people in that country are spending more than 12 hours each day without electricity. The new Pak-China economic corridor has created an opportunity for the country to use indigenous Thar coal reserves to generate 6,600 megawatts (MW) power, expanding its installed capacity of 24,829 MW by 25%.

According to global statistics, coal contributed to 39% of the world’s energy mix in 2014. The World Coal Association claims that about 1 billion people around the globe have received electricity from coal-powered energy generation. And that the industry has created 7 million jobs worldwide.

A large population in developing economies is reliant on traditional biomass sources of energy that themselves cause problems. Colleen/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

Many developing economies, including China and India, are connecting millions of their inhabitants to coal-based electricity systems. Over the last two decades, China has been able to electrify about 700 million households through coal-fired energy production.

India is still meeting the majority of its energy demand from coal-fired electricity generation and was among the world’s three largest coal importers in 2015.

Prospects of coal energy

Energy poverty is a major human and environmental crisis. A balanced energy mix with a high degree of physical safety, low environmental hazards and sustainable supply prospects is essential for poverty alleviation and energy security.

But, in the face of competing alternative energy sources, the role of the coal industry in energy poverty alleviation has become even more challenging.

While renewable energy sources are in their infancy and facing many uncertainties, developing economies have a long way to go before they can completely abandon fossil fuel energy sources. Indeed, these countries need major structural reforms and risk-tolerant investment capital in the renewable sector if the twin goals of reduced carbon emissions and the elimination of energy poverty are to be achieved.

All that means the coal industry will potentially remain a major part of the world’s energy mix. But it needs drastic measures to produce clean and efficient energy if it is to play a role in energy security and poverty alleviation without the adverse environmental effects that threaten to introduce other risks to water, global climate and food security.

The author would like to thank Associate Professor John Steen and Dr Jo-Anne Everingham for their valuable comments on this article.

This is the third article in our series on the past, present and future of coal. Look out for others over the next week or two.

Shabbir Ahmad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Scientists warn that global warming target will be overshot within two decades, as annual concentrations of CO2 set to pass 400 parts per million in 2016

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will shatter the symbolic barrier of 400 parts per million (ppm) this year and will not fall below it our in our lifetimes, according to a new Met Office study.

Carbon dioxide measurements at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii are forecast to soar by a record 3.1ppm this year – up from an annual average of 2.1ppm – due in large part to the cyclical El Niño weather event in the Pacific, the paper says.

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A big spike in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels means the greenhouse gas is about to pass a symbolic threshold.

Research shows the legal sale in 2008 catastrophically backfired – but two African nations want to repeat the stockpile sell-off

A huge legal sale of ivory intended to cut elephant poaching instead catastrophically backfired by dramatically increasing elephant deaths, according to new research.

The revelation comes just months before a decision on whether to permit another legal sale and against a backdrop of more African elephants being killed for ivory than are being born. In 2015 alone, 20,000 elephants were illegally killed.

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Scientists say they have developed a better way to predict how diseases such as Lassa fever jump from animals to humans.

Leading scientists have been particularly vocal in arguing against the UK leaving the European Union. But how would Brexit really affect UK science, asks Tom Feilden.

In open letter charities say environmental evidence should lead Welsh government to stop plan that would cut through wetland

Ten leading environmental charities have claimed a proposed section of motorway that would cut through wildlife-rich wetland represents “ecological destruction on an unprecedented scale”.

The charities have written an open letter to the Welsh government calling for it to scrap £1bn plans to build a 14-mile stretch of motorway through the Gwent Levels near Newport in south Wales.

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Analysis of Peabody Energy court documents show company backed trade groups, lobbyists and thinktanks dubbed ‘heart and soul of climate denial’

Peabody Energy, America’s biggest coalmining company, has funded at least two dozen groups that cast doubt on manmade climate change and oppose environment regulations, analysis by the Guardian reveals.

The funding spanned trade associations, corporate lobby groups, and industry front groups as well as conservative thinktanks and was exposed in court filings last month.

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Lobbying from the petroleum industry may have convinced Republicans to denounce a carbon tax

On Friday, the US House of Representatives voted on a Resolution condemning a carbon tax. As The Hill reported:

Lawmakers passed, by a 237-163 vote, a GOP-backed resolution listing pitfalls from a tax on carbon dioxide emissions and concluding that such a policy “would be detrimental to American families and businesses, and is not in the best interest of the United States.”

Six Democrats voted with the GOP for the resolution. No Republicans dissented.

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New research is first to establish the link and builds on other evidence that children are particularly vulnerable to even low levels of pollution

A major new study has linked air pollution to increased mental illness in children, even at low levels of pollution.

The new research found that relatively small increases in air pollution were associated with a significant increase in treated psychiatric problems. It is the first study to establish the link but is consistent with a growing body of evidence that air pollution can affect mental and cognitive health and that children are particularly vulnerable to poor air quality.

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There's a lot more to Sunshine State politics than just the major parties, with a record number of names crowding the Senate ballot paper -- including a few very recognisable ones.

The Stiperstones, Shropshire We might have been walking towards a future devoid of the riveting, other-worldly call of the curlew

A few Sundays ago, Mary Colwell-Hector and I were walking with a bunch of ornithologists and conservationists along the Stiperstones ridge. The scent of gorse drifted on warm air. Sunlight moved over the heather and farmland finding sheep, meadows and cattle. But our talk was more of what wasn’t there. We should have been seeing curlew, returned from the coast to breed here in the Shropshire-Powys borderlands.

The British Trust for Ornithology estimates that 68,000 breeding pairs remain in the UK – about 46% of the 1994 figure. “But where are they? They’re not here, and they’re not in Wales or Ireland,” said Mary, the former producer of Shared Planet, who is walking 500 miles through Ireland and England to highlight fears about the decline of these distinctive waders.

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Amid a series of reports detailing the poor state of the reef, Malcolm Turnbull is promising improved water quality and clean energy for the region

Malcolm Turnbull has promised that a re-elected Coalition government will protect the Great Barrier Reef by tackling its two biggest challenges – climate change and water quality.

The prime minister will pledge to set up a new $1bn reef fund with $1bn – taken from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation’s $10bn special account – to invest in projects that will improve water quality, reduce emissions and provide clean energy in the reef catchment region.

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Controlling our homes with the tap of an app may have hidden energy costs. Smart home image from www.shutterstock.com

Light globes that change colour with the tap of an app, coffee machines you can talk to, and ovens that know exactly how long to cook your food: our homes are getting smart. These devices, just a few examples of what is known as “the internet of things” (or IOT), have been called the “next great disruptor” and “the second digital revolution”.

One of the great hopes of this revolution is that it will help households save energy. Sensors can turn off lights and appliances when not in use, or turn the heating down when people go to bed. Smartphone apps can provide households with more insight into the energy use of their appliances.

While estimates vary widely, industry proponents suggest that emerging connected home technologies could help households reduce their energy bills by 10-25%. Such claims are largely speculative given the absence of robust “before and after” research.

Social research from Australia and the UK is revealing ways in which IOT might also increase energy demand. We have identified three “hidden” energy impacts which are rarely considered in IOT research or energy-saving predictions.

New updates and hardware

Estimates of the true energy and data costs of IOT are currently vague. In part, this is due to the variety of possible impacts within the home, within distributed information infrastructures, and in the production, transportation and disposal of goods.

For example, one estimate suggests that the data servers required to power the internet already produce as much greenhouse gas as the airline industry (around 2% of global emissions). Some predict that server electricity use will treble in the next decade.

While IOT is still a relatively small (and largely unknown) part of this growth, its share is likely to increase substantially in coming years.

As with smartphones and other computers, updates for connected devices add to growing data traffic and hence energy consumption by data centres and transmission networks.

There may also be more energy demand from the increasing need for data centres, control rooms and home networks located within people’s homes (as observed in some of our research). This hard infrastructure takes up space, runs on energy and may require air-conditioned cooling or heating to keep it operating normally.

The rapid emergence of new software for household appliances such as fridges and washing machines may encourage more frequent upgrading of these devices – as seen with televisions and computers over recent years.

Given that it also takes energy to make appliances, discarding and upgrading devices that aren’t smart enough would undermine policies intended to reduce electronic waste (e-waste) and reduce embedded energy.

New needs

Like the industrial revolution of the home, which raised cleanliness expectations and resulted in more energy and water consumption overall, devices like smart thermostats might also raise expectations for comfort, particularly if air-conditioned heating and cooling is used more often and in more rooms.

For example, home automation company Lutron promotes the creation of “pleasance” - a seductive concept promising the perfect combination of luxury, relaxation, pleasure and comfort - all enabled by smart tech.

This vision permeates a range of ambience and aesthetic connected technologies, such as mood and scene lighting, automated water fountains, smart toilets and whole-house audio-visual systems.

By themselves, such features may be relatively low-power. But they add to existing services and are likely to require a degree of always-networked, always-ready standby power consumption.

In one recent estimate, connected devices were forecast to grow globally from 10 billion in 2014 to between 30 billion and 50 billion by 2020. With potentially billions of networked devices in the not-too-distant future, globally these impacts could be considerable.

With more devices at our fingertips, we are also using them more often. Instead of watching only one television, multiple family members can use their tablets and smartphones at the same time. Even though each individual device might be super efficient and battery-powered, it may add up to more energy demand overall.

Even devices marketed to save energy might increase it. For example, some smart apps allow householders to switch their heating or cooling off remotely when they forget.

However, they also provide new opportunities to turn it on remotely. As one article suggests: “if you want the aircon roaring before you come home … use the app to turn it on before you get home”.

Having more connected devices can also create more complexity. This is opening up markets for new devices that integrate and consolidate technologies across the home.

For example, virtual helpers like Amazon’s Echo (Alexa) and the Google Home Assistant can do everything from turning on your lights to playing your favourite music. These devices are new additions for most homes, consuming small amounts of energy in their own right, but adding to the energy demands of distant data servers.

New services

New services are also emerging, such as smart versions of mattresses and fridges that monitor health and assist with sleep, diet and medication patterns.

The security industry is also rapidly evolving to provide surveillance features which allow constant home monitoring from a distance and enable lights and appliances to be switched on to deter burglars. Devices also provide live-stream video sent to smartphones and tablets so householders can check on the activities of their children and pets.

All these devices involve various forms of energy demand, which includes powering the devices themselves. They also transmit data over the internet and make greater use of streamed media content; another key component of the growing energy used by the internet.

That does not mean that IOT has nothing to offer: the devices we have described above arguably have many benefits.

But we do need to pay more attention to these hidden impacts as governments and households embrace these technologies for their promoted energy-saving benefits.

Yolande Strengers receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Energy Consumers Australia. She is affiliated with the Sociological Association of Australia (TASA).

Janine Morley and the DEMAND Centre receive funding from the RCUK Energy Programme and EDF as part of the R&D ECLEER Programme.

Larissa Nicholls receives funding from Energy Consumers Australia.

Mike Hazas receives funding from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Professor Andrew Blakers says Australia receives thousands of times more solar energy from the sun each year than all the fossil fuel use combined.

The 19th century glassblower’s intricate sculptures of marine life are a window on the ocean 150 years ago, says ecology professor Drew Harvell

In the 1860s, when the Bohemian glassblower Leopold Blaschka began sculpting models of underwater creatures, the Industrial Revolution, population growth and climate change had yet to take their toll on marine biodiversity. Over three decades, using techniques that still baffle experts, Leopold and his son, Rudolf, handmade about 10,000 marine sculptures, each one rendered in minute detail: impossibly delicate anemones, livid orange cuttlefish – creatures at once alien and unnervingly lifelike.

In a world before scuba diving, underwater photography or ocean life surveys, the Blaschkas’ models proved an invaluable educational resource, with universities worldwide purchasing collections of glass specimens. One of the largest, with 570 models, belongs to Cornell University in the US, where until recently it was all but forgotten, stowed in a warehouse in a state of disrepair. As a young professor in the 1990s, Dr Drew Harvell began cataloguing the collection, discovering a “time capsule” of 19th-century marine biology. “There’s value in the entire collection,” she says. “It’s what you could see 150 years ago, frozen in time.”

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