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CEFC research has identified South Australia, NSW, ACT, Victoria and Western Australia as states with best policy settings and levies for businesses to recycle waste and reduce operating costs.

China's concerns about air pollution from burning coal is one reason behind the emissions slowdown. China coal image from www.shutterstock.com

For the third year in a row, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry have barely grown, while the global economy has continued to grow strongly. This level of decoupling of carbon emissions from global economic growth is unprecedented.

Global CO₂ emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and industry (including cement production) were 36.3 billion tonnes in 2015, the same as in 2014, and are projected to rise by only 0.2% in 2016 to reach 36.4 billion tonnes. This is a remarkable departure from emissions growth rates of 2.3% for the previous decade, and more than 3% during the 2000s.

Given this good news, we have an extraordinary opportunity to extend the changes that have driven the slowdown and spark the great decline in emissions needed to stabilise the world’s climate.

This result is part of the annual carbon assessment released today by the Global Carbon Project, a global consortium of scientists and think tanks under the umbrella of Future Earth and sponsored by institutions from around the world.

Global CO₂ emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and industry. Emissions in 2016 (red dot) are based on a projection. Fossil fuel and industry emissions

The slowdown in emissions growth has been primarily driven by China. After strong growth since the early 2000s, emissions in China have levelled off and may even be declining. This change is largely due to economic factors, such as the end of the construction boom and weaker global demand for steel. Efforts to reduce air pollution and the growth of solar and wind energy have played a role too, albeit a smaller one.

The United States has also played a role in the global emissions slowdown, largely driven by improvements in energy efficiency, the replacement of coal with natural gas and, to a lesser extent, renewable energy.

What makes the three-year trend most remarkable is the fact that the global economy grew at more than 3% per year during this time. Previously, falling emissions were driven by stagnant or shrinking economies, such as during the global financial crisis of 2008.

Developed countries, together, showed a strong declining trend in emissions, cutting them by 1.7% in 2015. This decline was despite emissions growth of 1.4% in the European Union after more than a decade of declining emissions.

Emissions from emerging economies and developing countries grew by 0.9% with the fourth-highest emitter, India, growing at 5.2% in 2015.

Importantly, the transfer of CO₂ emissions from developed countries to less developed countries (via trade of goods and services produced in places different to where they are consumed) has declined since 2007.

CO₂ emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and industry for the top 4 global emitters.

Deforestation and other changes in land use added another 4.8 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2015, on top of the 36.3 billion tonnes of CO₂ emitted from fossil fuels and industry. This is a significant increase by 42% over the average emissions of the previous decade.

This jump in land use change emissions was largely the result of increased fires at the deforestation frontiers, particularly in Southeast Asia, driven by dry conditions brought by a strong El Niño in 2015-16. In general, though, long-term trends for emissions from deforestation and other land use change appear to be lower for the most recent decade than they were in the 1990s and early 2000s.

The carbon quota

When combining emissions from fossil fuels, industry, and land use change, the global economy released another 41 billion tonnes to the atmosphere in 2015, and will add roughly the same amount again this year.

We now need to turn this no-growth to actual declines in emissions as soon as possible. Otherwise, it will be a challenge to keep cumulative emissions below the level that would avoid a 2℃ warming, as required under the Paris Agreement.

As part of our carbon budget assessment, we estimate that cumulative emissions from 1870 (the reference year used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to calculate carbon budgets) to the end of 2016 will be 2,075 billion tonnes of CO₂. The remaining quota to avoid the 2℃ threshold, assuming constant emissions, would be consumed at best in less than 25 years (with remaining quota estimates ranging from 450 to 1,050 billion tonnes of CO₂). Ultimately, we must reduce emissions to net zero to stabilise the climate.

The carbon budget to keep mean global temperature below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels with more than 66% probability, showing used carbon budget (black) and remaining carbon budget (red). Values rounded to nearest 50 billion tonnes of CO₂. The remaining quotas are indicative and vary depending on definition and methodology. Rogelj et al. 2016, Nature Climate Change

Pep Canadell receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Earth Systems and Climate Change hub.

Corinne Le Quéré is affiliated with the UK Committee on Climate Change.

Glen Peters receives funding from the Research Council of Norway.

Rob Jackson receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation and Departments of Energy and Agriculture. He is a member of Stanford's Natural Gas Initiative, an industry affiliates program, working to reduce methane emissions.

Former staff members face up to five years in prison if convicted of lapses at Queensland coal gasification site

Five former Linc Energy executives have been charged by the Queensland government with breaching environmental law over the operation of its underground coal gasification site in Chinchilla.

In September the former chief executive Peter Bond was charged with three indictable offences and last week was summonsed on two additional charges of failing to ensure the company complied with the state’s Environmental Protection Act.

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Skywatchers are preparing for the 'supermoon' as the moon makes its closest approach since 1948.

The impact of America's new President on clean energy in the US and Australia is difficult to predict. But there are a couple of forces even he can't Trump: physics and economics.

Originally published in the Manchester Guardian on 17 November 1916

The bracken is past its best, withered to a dull, uninteresting brown; its crippled stems, stiff and splintering, prick painfully as we wade through the wood where so short a time ago the fronds were breast-high. The ferns vary in autumn beauty according to their kind, some remaining dark green when their tips are curled and dead, grey or almost black; the osmunda, however, rightly named royal, increases in beauty as it ages. It is now a splendid golden orange, a wonderful colour when the sun’s rays, somewhat rarely, light it up.

Amongst the beeches the dappled fallow deer, rustling through the leaf-drifts, slowly approach the carriage-drive through the park, but immediately they reach the gravel bound rapidly across. The bucks, full-antlered, call the does, as if urging haste; their voices are a strange mixture of bleat and grunt. These bucks are still excited by recent nuptial contests, but the successful ones have collected and retain their harems. After racing over the road the herd at once slows down to a walk on feeling grass beneath the feet, and the bucks and does alike pass on with a light, elastic gait. It is curious that semi-domestic animals should be so nervous when crossing a man-trodden pathway, for they pay little attention to passers-by when they are feeding a few yards away.

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Dr Luke Kemp says the Paris climate agreement needs to be amended to deal with 'renegade states' who may withdraw in the future—including the US—if President-elect Trump follows through on recent threats.

Host of Brave Wilderness YouTube channel travels around world trying to get animals and insects to bite him – and give viewers a ‘vicarious experience’

One of Coyote Peterson’s most popular YouTube videos shows him writhing around in agony on the ground. He’s just been stung by a tarantula hawk, a giant wasp that is considered to have the second most painful sting of any insect.

For the first 15 seconds Peterson is unable to speak. He just screams and grabs at the dirt.

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The absence of climate change as a leading topic in the election was a failure of the media – and it’s now their responsibility to get Americans talking about it

Imagine the world was facing upheaval on a scale not seen during modern civilization, a change that would imperil the world’s great cities by the rising seas and snuff out species at at the fastest rate since the dinosaurs disappeared. Then imagine you were a journalist, had repeated chances to ask the next president of the United States about this and decided to not do so.

The apparent failure of the media during the presidential election has been multifaceted and fiercely debated. But the absence of climate change as a leading topic in the election of Donald Trump is perhaps the single greatest rebuke to the idea that power should be held to account for the benefit of this and future generations.

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The Royal Ballet and the School of Sport, Health and Applied Science (SHAS) at St Mary’s University, Twickenham have joined forces to deliver sports science support to dancers.

Transparent wood and cement generated by bacteria - New materials promise to change the way we build houses in the future.

Transparent wood and cement generated by bacteria - New materials promise to change the way we build houses in the future.

The history and future of Indigenous-environmentalist relations in Australia.

Airedale, West Yorkshire Far from being robust birds, these visitors from Scandinavia can suffer terribly when the temperature drops

The little grebes have changed into their smart off-season outfits – smoky-brown, with a dark cap worn low on the brow – and moved upriver, westward, to winter with us. The quickening of the current has brought a dipper down from the river’s higher reaches. In a hawthorn that overhangs the water, redwings gorge on the dull red fruit.

These aren’t the first redwings I’ve seen this season: since the turn of October they’ve been skipping through high overhead in threes and fours and fives, calling seep, seep. The warden, hunkered in the adjoining meadow on autumn “vismigging” (visible migrant) duty, pointed out to me their distinctively irregular wingbeats.

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What would happen if water became scarce? It's a prospect that keeps Sarah Wheeler awake at night

Activists and scientists at UN climate talks in Marrakech now fear a change in US policy

As news of Donald Trump’s victory reached Marrakech on Wednesday, the many thousands of diplomats, activists, youth and business groups gathered in the city for the UN’s annual climate conference were left in shock and disbelief that the US could elect a climate-change denier as president.

Some of the younger activists were in tears. “My heart is absolutely broken at the election of Trump,” said Becky Chung, a delegate for youth advocacy group SustainUS from California.

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Every day, tiny brightly coloured birds are offering a critique of our environmental management, if only we could understand what they were saying.

EU concerns are growing that some oil-rich nations that have not yet ratified the deal could now try and slow action on reducing emissions

Concerns are mounting that Donald Trump’s victory could embolden some fossil fuel-rich countries to try unpicking the historic Paris climate agreement, which came into force last week.

Saudi Arabia has tried to obstruct informal meetings at the UN climate summit in Marrakech this week, and worries are rife that states which have not yet ratified the agreement could seek to slow action on carbon emissions. Trump has called global warming a hoax and promised to withdraw the US from the Paris accord.

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Government divisions over approach to climate change plan are bridged, but targets will be reviewed in 2018 to consider their impact on industry

Germany’s coalition government has reached an agreement on a climate change action plan which involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95% by 2050, a spokesperson said on Friday.

The plan, which will require German industry to reduce its CO2 emission by a fifth by 2030, and Germany’s energy sector to reduce emissions by almost a half, will be reviewed in 2018 with a view to its impact on jobs and society.

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Donald Trump’s win could be catastrophic for the world’s climate, as well as international diplomacy, as American leadership is transformed

This November is likely to have profound implications for climate change – but not in the way that was anticipated just a week ago. The Paris climate deal came into force on 4 November but Tuesday’s election of Donald Trump as US president casts an ominous shadow over the agreement and the chances of avoiding dangerous global warming.

Trump is a highly erratic figure, so predicting his actions can be problematic. But we do know that he wants to withdraw the US from the Paris accord, which aims to keep the global temperature increase below a 2C threshold, that he believes climate change to be a “hoax” and that Barack Obama’s warning that global warming is a threat on a par with terrorism was “one of the dumbest statements I’ve ever heard in politics.”

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