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Reports of Sahara dust in late autumn are a signal to search for birds displaced from the desert and on to our shores

Some Novembers see southern Britain bathed in unseasonably warm sunshine, in that phenomenon known as an Indian summer. But few can match the events of early November 1984, when temperatures reached highs of 19°C, and balmy, southern breezes made it feel more like June than late autumn.

Then, on 9 November, car-drivers from Sussex to Yorkshire discovered their cars covered with a thin layer of fine, pale yellow dust. Amazing though it may seem, this really was sand blown here from the Sahara desert, more than 2,500km (1,500 miles) to the south.

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Recent centuries have seen a big jump in the rates of erosion in the iconic chalk cliffs on England’s south coast, a new study finds.

Iconic southern coastline is eroding 10 times faster than the past few thousand years due to human management and changes in storm intensity

The iconic white cliffs of southern England are eroding 10 times faster than they have over the past few thousand years, a new study has revealed.

The cause of the huge acceleration is likely to be human management of the coastline, which has stripped some cliffs of their protective beaches, as well as changes in storm intensity. Climate change, which is bringing higher sea levels and fiercer waves, will make the erosion even worse, say scientists.

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The Broken Hill Mayor is calling for a summit to address the management of the Darling River system as the city's water crisis ends.

The journal Climatic Change has published a special edition of review papers discussing major natural hazards in Australia. This article is the first in a series looking at those threats in detail.

Recent floods in New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria have reminded us of the power of our weather and rivers to wreak havoc on homes, business and even, tragically, lives.

As Dorothea Mackellar poetically pointed out, “droughts and flooding rains” have been a feature of Australia throughout history, so maybe we shouldn’t be all that surprised when they happen.

However, we also know that the reported costs of flooding in Australia have been increasing, most likely through a combination of increased reporting, increased exposure through land use change and population growth, and changes to flood magnitude and severity. So it is critical that we understand what might be causing these changes.

This was the question we asked in our review on how flood impacts have changed over time in Australia and how they may change in the future. We found that despite decades of research in these areas, there are still many gaps in what we know.

Copping a soaking

We know that floods depend not just on how much rain falls, but also on how wet the ground is before a heavy rainfall, and how full the rivers are. We also have evidence that the storms that generate heavy rainfall will become more intense in the future, because as the atmosphere warms it can hold more moisture.

This is particularly the case for storms that last just a few hours; in fact we think that these storms are the most likely to show the largest increases. In urban environments this translates to an even greater flood risk, because the concrete and hard surfaces allow this intense rain to run off quickly through storm drains and into creeks and rivers, rather than seeping into the landscape.

In larger catchments and rural areas the story is more complicated than in cities. If the soil is very wet as a result of rain over the previous weeks and months, then when a big storm hits there will be a lot of runoff. In contrast, if the soil is dry then flooding is less likely to be a problem.

Engineers currently use simple models to estimate this relationship between soil wetness and storm rainfall. But our research indicates that these simple models will need to be replaced with longer-term simulations that model all of the previous rainfall leading up to the storm.

Simple models use simple assumptions to translate rainfall risk into flood risk. But if these assumptions are incorrect, our estimates of flood risk (that is, the probability of a given flood magnitude occurring in any particular year) could be wrong. Flood risk is used to guide infrastructure assessment through cost-benefit ratios, so getting it right is important.

One of the reasons that catchment wetness varies is because of climate cycles like El Niño and La Niña. We have some idea how these and similar ocean cycles affect our climate, including the fact that they can cause fluctations in flood risk over decades-long timescales.

The difficulty here is that for most locations we only have 50 to 60 years of recorded river flow data. This makes it hard to separate out the influences of these climate cycles from other trends in flood data, such as the effect of increasing urbanisation.

There has been progressively less monitoring of streamflow in Australia over the past few decades, and this makes it even harder to understand regional changes in flood risk. Governments need to prioritise investment in data collection to allow us to improve our estimates of the risk of flooding and the associated damages now and in the future.

The recent work by the Bureau of Meteorology to develop a comprehensive set of high quality streamflow gauge data is a step in the right direction, but much more investment is needed in these areas.

Finally, we recommend that continued research into the fundamental changes likely from climate change is required. This requires climate models to be run at a range of resolutions to enable all the important climate processes for extreme rainfall to be properly represented.

Recent pressure on CSIRO’s climate modelling capabilities is concerning – the scientific questions are by no means fully answered on these topics. It is great to see the recent funding of the ARC Centre of Excellence on Climate Extremes. The work of these researchers, combined with ongoing efforts across Australia, will be important to provide better assessments on climate changes. This can help engineers and hydrologists continue to provide accurate flood risk estimates.

Fiona Johnson receives funding from the Australian Research Council and World Health Organisation.

Chris White receives funding from various Tasmanian State Government research funding programs, Wine Australia and the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC.

Seth Westra receives funding from the Australian Research Council and various State Government research funding programs.

Bushfires have been the most common natural disaster in New South Wales over the past decade, according to our study published today in Nature’s Scientific Reports.

Our study, the first of its kind, looked at disaster declarations in local government areas (LGAs). We found 207 disasters affected the state between 2004 and 2014. Bushfires were the most common, responsible for 108 disaster declarations, followed by storms (55) and floods (44).

By looking at where disasters were declared, we found a “hotspot” in northern New South Wales, which includes some of the state’s most disadvantaged communities.

This suggests that to help communities prepare for disasters, we need to address underlying causes of disadvantage.

There’s nothing natural about a disaster

Disasters are a regular part of life for communities across the globe. So far in 2016, disasters have cost US$71 billion and claimed some 6,000 lives. Globally, the number and cost of disasters is rising.

Australia has a long history of natural disasters, from catastrophic bushfires to flooding rains. Many people are asking whether such disasters are becoming more frequent, and what we can do to better prevent and prepare for them.

Despite the way we talk about them, fires, floods and storms are not inherently natural disasters. Though they may threaten social systems or the environment, they are more accurately classified as natural hazards.

A disaster occurs when a natural hazard overwhelms a social system’s capacity to cope and respond. Instead, disasters require many agencies and a coordinated response. Many factors such as vulnerability, resilience and population density influence a how a community copes with hazards.

Natural disasters are therefore socially constructed, and this is in Australian legislation on how disasters are declared.

What types of disasters are most common in NSW?

Using data on local government areas (LGAs) involved in Natural Disaster Declarations we examined three types of sudden hazards - bushfires, floods and storms. We found that LGAs in New South Wales were involved in disaster declarations on 905 separate occasions.

Across the state, 27 LGAs experienced no disaster declarations. All of these were located within the Greater Metropolitan Region around Sydney. The highest numbers of disasters declared were in Clarence Valley (21), Richmond Valley (16), Narrabri (15) and Nambucca (15).

While bushfires were the most commonly occurring type of disaster event, floods affected the highest number of LGAs. Bushfire and storm disasters were most common in 2012-13, and floods in 2010-11.

By analysing these data we found a cluster or hotspot in the state’s north east. LGAs here were much more frequently involved in disaster declarations than elsewhere.

What’s causing these disasters?

We found clear differences between the number and type of disaster declarations in different years. We wondered if disasters were linked to El Niño (which can lead to hotter, drier weather in Australia) and La Niña (which can lead to cooler, wetter weather).

We did indeed find that bushfires were more common in hot, dry El Niños, and floods and storms in wetter La Niñas. But the relationship wasn’t “statistically significant” - which is how scientists decide how important a statistical finding is.

This suggests that for NSW at least, the strength of El Niño and La Niña is not a good predictor of the number of bushfire, storm or flood disaster declarations that will be made. This might be for two reasons.

First, the declaration of a disaster is based on its socioeconomic and human impacts – not the physical size or intensity of the actual event. And second, we only have a good data set of disaster declarations back to 2004, a very short period of time to look for detailed patterns.

We also compared disaster declarations to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas data, a dataset that ranks communities on their relative social disadvantage. Research shows that vulnerable, disadvantaged communities are more susceptible to hazards and disasters.

We found that of the most disadvantaged LGAs in NSW, 43% were found in the state’s disaster hotspot.

While we don’t know exactly why so many disadvantaged communities are found in the disaster hotspot, this demonstrates the role that social disadvantage plays in influencing susceptibility to disasters. This builds on other recent studies about inequality and disadvantage in Australia.

The key message for Australia, and the world, is if we do not deal with the root causes of inequality, injustice, disadvantage and poverty, no amount of spending on disaster risk management will stem ever increasing disaster losses.

What can we do?

The overlap of disadvantage and disaster declarations presents a challenge to communities, disaster managers and governments. Increased funding to address social disadvantage in these communities may increase resilience to natural hazards, preventing them from becoming disasters.

Even Sydney, where all of the LGAs with no disasters were found, shouldn’t become complacent. Areas with less experience of hazards have lower awareness of the risks, and respond less effectively as a result. So even though metropolitan areas are typically better off, if a disaster were to occur, the population here would likely be less prepared to cope with the impacts.

Community outreach and education programs may help increase general awareness of the risks and help communities become better prepared. Similarly, more training and deploying emergency services personnel to disasters elsewhere could help gain insight and experiences which can be brought home.

The 2011 Queensland floods demonstrated the need for better education, risk communication and community awareness.

With flood disasters the most widespread across NSW, it would be prudent to focus on educating communities about floods to increase resilience and help them cope. Increasing resources for the State Emergency Service will also allow for more effective planning, mitigation and response strategies to be developed and implemented.

The damage bill from recent flooding across NSW topped A$500 million. The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted an above-average 2016-17 cyclone season. It is an apt time to pause and reflect on what drives people’s understanding of disaster risk and community resilience.

Dale Dominey-Howes receives funding from AusAID, the Australian Research Council, the Global Resilience Partnership and the Australian National Disaster Resilience Program.

Eleanor Bruce receives funding from ACIAR and the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research.

Ruby E. Stephens currently works for the NSW Government. The views expressed in this article are solely her own and are not representative of this organisation.

Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Thomas Sewell now works for the NSW Government and is also a volunteer member of the NSW State Emergency Service. The views expressed in this article are solely his own and are not representative of the opinions of either of these organisations.

My former colleague Palmer Newbould, who has died aged 87, was a champion of scientific nature conservation, an innovative university teacher and a generous, warm-hearted man with broad interests.

His nature conservation work was based mainly in Northern Ireland, where wide-ranging conservation legislation was introduced only in 1965. Palmer served on two statutory committees in the 1970s – the Nature Reserves Committee and Ulster Countryside Committee – before becoming chairman of the Council for Nature Conservation and the Countryside in 1989, for which he was appointed OBE. He was also a Northern Ireland representative on the UK’s Joint Nature Conservation Committee and served on Ireland’s Nuclear Energy Board.

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Research suggests ecological impact assessments carried out for windfarms are not adequately predicting bat activity or risks

Hundreds of bats are being killed in collisions with wind turbines in the UK each month, despite ecological impact assessments predicting that many windfarms were unlikely to affect such animals, according to a new study.

All UK species of bats are protected by law, and ecological impact assessments - carried out before construction of windfarms or other sites - should weigh up the risks for local habitats and wildlife. But new research suggests that such assessments are simply not up to scratch.

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Life in the southern hemisphere appears to have recovered more quickly than expected from the asteroid strike that wiped out the dinosaurs.

Surcharges of 40% on beef and 20% on milk would compensate for climate damage and deter people from consuming as much unhealthy food

Climate taxes on meat and milk would lead to huge and vital cuts in carbon emissions as well as saving half a million lives a year via healthier diets, according to the first global analysis of the issue.

Surcharges of 40% on beef and 20% on milk would account for the damage their production causes people via climate change, an Oxford University team has calculated. These taxes would then deter people from consuming as much of these foods, reducing both emissions and illness, the team said.

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As the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust celebrates its 70th birthday we would like to see your pictures from around the country – in all seasons

Almost 70 years ago to the day Peter Scott – son of Antarctic explorer Captain Scott – opened Slimbridge, the first of nine Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT) centres across the UK.

Related: David Attenborough unveils UK's newest nature reserve in east London

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Marrakech summit buoyed by gathering momentum but threatened by the possibility of climate change denier Donald Trump entering the White House

UN talks to implement the landmark Paris climate pact opened in Marrakech on Monday, buoyed by gathering momentum but threatened by the spectre of climate change denier Donald Trump in the White House.

Diplomats from 196 nations are meeting in Morocco to flesh out the planet-saving plan inked in the French capital last December.

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The European Space Agency’s director general says he expects to have at least an interim report on the Schiaparelli crash within the month.

From science denial to xenophobia to misogyny, Trump brings out the worst in Americans, and wants to reverse 50 years of progress

In September, Hillary Clinton came under fire for suggesting that half of Donald Trump’s supporters belonged in “a basket of deplorables” consisting of “the racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic – you name it.”

Labeling people in such a disparaging manner is not a constructive approach. However, research has shown it’s true that Donald Trump brings out the worst characteristics in Americans. Only about half of Trump supporters think global warming is real, and twice as many Republicans are unsure about the evidence as they were a year ago. Hostility towards women and racial resentment correlate with Trump support almost as strongly as party affiliation. Xenophobia, misogyny, and denial of science and facts are the defining characteristics of Donald Trump’s candidacy.

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We asked readers living in the area to share their thoughts with us, one month on after Lancashire council’s rejection of a fracking site was overturned

I felt so strongly about the Cuadrilla proposal that I demonstrated outside Lancashire County Council in Preston on two occasions when the council were voting on the applications.

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‘The officers cautiously unzipped the bag and found this gorgeous boy,’ Queensland police say of Alfred the joey

A woman taken into custody by Queensland police has stunned officers by handing over a baby koala she had been secretly carrying inside a zipped canvas bag.

The East Brisbane woman, 50, was asked if she had anything to declare after her arrest on unrelated matters by officers on patrol in the city’s south on Sunday night. She produced the bag, saying it contained a joey.

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Environment minister Steven Miles calls on federal government to fast-track extra $1.65m for agency tasked with protecting the reef

Queensland’s environment minister has flagged concerns that the agency tasked with protecting the Great Barrier Reef is running as a “shell of its former self” amid the underfunding of a cornerstone program.

Steven Miles called on the federal government to fast-track an extra $1.65m for the main “on-water” management program for the reef, which had seen no increase to its funding since 2008.

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The Chevin, Otley, West Yorkshire Dry stone walls intrigue because there is a hint of the impossible about them. They stand as if by sleight of hand, artificial but organic

A gentle, mysterious, monosyllabic presence, Alan Dickinson was, to my childhood imagination, less a man and more a wildling from some semi-mythical moorland tribe. He looked as rugged as Almscliff Crag and smelled of woodchip and weather. I viewed him with quiet awe.

The husband of Andrea, my childminder, Alan was of farming stock, and his occupation was building dry stone walls. He has shaped my image of this trade ever since: inscrutable men stacking stones in windswept, lonely places where walls define the landscape.

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By including Toma in my film at the Great Barrier Reef I want to show how environmental disasters are creating a lonely world for our children

The short film I’ve made with the Guardian stars my son, Toma, aged four years and five months. That’s a little scary for me to write, since, up until this moment, my husband, Avi, and I have been pretty careful about protecting him from public exposure. No matter how damn cute we think he’s being, absolutely no tweeting is allowed.

So I want to explain how I decided to introduce him to you in this very public way.

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Exclusive: In Under the Surface, a special Guardian film, the award-winning writer and environmental campaigner Naomi Klein travels to the Great Barrier Reef with her son, Toma, to see the impact of coral bleaching caused by climate change. In a personal but also universal story, Klein tells how she wants him to bear witness. ‘Just in case, amid the coral that is still alive, he can find something beautiful to connect with, something he can carry with him as he navigates life on a warmer, harsher planet than the one I grew up on. Because climate change is already here – and kids are on the frontlines’
Extra footage supplied by David Hannan

• Naomi Klein: Climate change is intergenerational theft. That’s why my son is part of this story

• Help us continue to cover the stories that matter. Support the Guardian with a monthly or one-off contribution

• Great Barrier Reef: a catastrophe laid bare

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