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One big mess: the market has failed to deliver on cheap, reliable energy. Shutterstock

The only way the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) could be blunter in its report on the state of our electricity system would be to stick a neon sign on top of its Melbourne head office saying “The market has failed”.

AEMO’s Advice to Commonwealth Government on Dispatchable Capability, released today, shows there are significant but manageable risks of the lights going out in South Australia and Victoria over the next two summers. And beyond 2018, AEMO will need more tools if shortfall risks are going to be dealt with.

The conclusions about the short-term risks are not surprising. AEMO has issued several reports over the past year or so telegraphing supply shortfalls in the next couple of years.

What is surprising is its view that action needs to be taken when Liddell, the AGL-owned power station in New South Wales, closes in 2022. That is five years away, and AGL has been trumpeting the decision at every opportunity, but AEMO is clearly not confident that the market will respond by delivering new generation, or storage, or demand response, to fill the gap.

Read more: AGL rejects Turnbull call to keep operating Liddell coal-fired power station

AEMO recommends immediate development of a strategic reserve that it can deploy to prevent loss of power over the next few summers. A strategic reserve is basically back-up generation (or storage or demand response) that is used only in an emergency.

AEMO’s job is to make sure there is enough generation available – that supply equals demand. A strategic reserve will deliver the capacity – be it gas generation, storage or demand response – that it needs to meet any shortfall. Neither coal nor wind and solar can fulfil this function. Coal takes too long to come online, while wind and solar provide intermittent supply so there is no certainty that renewable energy will be there when needed.

Read more: Managing demand can save two power stations’ worth of energy at peak times

A strategic reserve is an insurance policy, only to be used in extreme circumstances. And like any insurance policy it has a cost – a cost that will be passed on to consumers. Of course, if electricity keeps being delivered as required over the next two summers, governments and consumers may well consider this money well spent.

But a strategic reserve does not deal with the second problem AEMO is seeking to solve: that not enough dispatchable generation is being built in the National Electricity Market. Even with backup generation controlled by AEMO, Australia will still need new generation to provide day-to-day power when existing power stations such as Liddell close.

AEMO’s second major recommendation is the immediate “development of a longer-term approach to retain existing investment and incentivise new investment in flexible dispatchable capability in the NEM”.

Read more: The government’s new energy plans will leave investors less confident than ever

Since it was set up 20 years ago, the NEM has delivered sufficient generation to meet demand, and at a reasonable cost. But this report makes it clear that AEMO believes this is no longer the case and that changes to the market are needed.

The report is understandably silent on what this “longer-term approach” might look like, given that market design is tricky. But the report is unequivocal that a new mechanism needs to be in place by the time Liddell closes. If not, supply shortages – and the associated loss of power to consumers – will be far more likely.

AEMO has provided the federal government with a pathway to securing electricity supply for the foreseeable future. There will be costs, but all governments will have greater assurances that the lights will stay on.

What AEMO hasn’t done is call out the policy instability that has been a major reason we have got ourselves into this mess. Commentators, Chief Scientist Alan Finkel, and numerous industry players – including the Big Three owners of generation in Australia – have all long been arguing that the major barrier to investment in the NEM has been the dog’s breakfast that is climate change policy.

The federal government can use this report to satisfy critics within its own party that there is a plan to ensure enough dispatchable generation in the NEM.

But the government must not use AEMO’s report as a get-out clause that allows it to continue to avoid creating an effective emissions reduction policy in the electricity sector. If anything, the report should stand as a stark warning to politicians of all stripes about what happens when you get policy so badly wrong.

Bipartisan agreement on the only politically acceptable emissions reduction policy – a Clean Energy Target – may not be sufficient, but remains absolutely necessary, to ensure there is enough generation to meet Australia’s electricity needs.

AEMO has shown it is willing to do its job. It is now up to our politicians to do theirs.

David Blowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

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If you’ve been following media coverage of the post-hurricane flooding in Texas during the last couple of weeks, you will have seen many images and accounts of people evacuating with their pets.

You will no doubt also have seen emergency responders and volunteers rescuing abandoned pets and stranded horses and livestock. Similar stories play out during all types of natural disasters, whether they’re floods, cyclones, or bushfires.

An estimated 63% of Australian households have at least one pet – one of the highest rates of pet ownership in the world – and including those pets in your emergency plan can be vital.

Last week a New South Wales coronial inquest into the 2015 Hunter Valley floods heard that an elderly resident who drowned refused to leave her home without her dog and bird, prompting parliamentary questions to the NSW minister for emergency services over provisions for animals in emergencies.

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I have spent the past three years leading a project on animal management in emergencies, which considers the challenges for emergency responders, as well as owners of pets, horses, pet livestock, animal-related businesses, and livestock farmers.

Recently we have teamed up with a community-led group in the Blue Mountains, Blue ARC Animal Ready Community, to focus on identifying and helping to solve local challenges and barriers to emergency preparedness and planning for animals.

Research suggests people often forget to include their chooks in household emergency plans. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

So if you have animals, what can you do to protect them? The first thing to do is check general resources on emergency plans. Unfortunately there is no Australia-wide emergency response approach, so it’s important to make plans that are suited to your own situation and the help you have available.

Here are my top tips for taking care of your animals in an emergency:

• It sounds obvious, but creating an emergency plan that includes pets is the first step. If you don’t have a household plan, the Australian Red Cross Rediplan is a good place to start. Consider a range of potential emergencies in your planning: heatwaves, prolonged loss of power, floods, cyclones and bushfires. Most importantly, think about every creature in your household: our research suggests that chooks are popular but often not considered when it comes to emergency planning.

• Plan to leave early. Evacuating with animals can take longer, especially when you have multiple types of animals or need to make multiple journeys. Don’t plan to leave animals behind, or plan to leave a household member behind to take care of the animals. Stay aware of weather conditions and emergency warnings.

• Have an emergency kit for your animals: fill a “go bag” (or box) with items you’ll need if you need to leave in a hurry. If you have essentials you can’t afford to leave in a box, make a checklist and know where they are. There are some excellent checklists available online to get you started.

• Plan where you will take your animals. Emergency services can’t help evacuate your pets or larger animals in emergency situations, and not all evacuation centres will accept them. The official position is that your animals are your responsibility, so you need to know where you’ll take your animals and how you’ll get them there. Most people rely on taking them to friends or family, but this can sometimes mean that different animals need to go to different places.

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• Plan for what will happen if you’re not at home, or can’t get back home. No one likes considering this situation, but it is often a reality. Speak to neighbours or nearby friends about what you would like them to do if you’re not home (and offer them your support if they’re away). Make sure you have contact numbers for neighbours and those who might be able to help in these situations.

• If you have horses or other large animals, find a buddy. Horses, and other large pet livestock, are special cases in emergencies: their size means that there are additional challenges in their handling, loading, transportation, and relocation. Many equine groups have guidance for horse owners, and advocate buddy systems to help owners. There are also networking systems, such as Walking Forward Disaster Relief Team, that help horse owners prearrange safer places to relocate their animals ahead of emergencies.

• Hardest of all: practice your plan. Most emergency preparedness advice suggests that you practice your plan, but it’s particularly important with pets. It’s better to find out early that your ideal plan doesn’t work in practice. Finding work-arounds, and making a plan B and C, is far easier without the threat of imminent danger.

Remember, your animals depend on you. Plan for all the human and non-human animals in your household, and stay safe.

September 16 and 17, 2017, is the NSW Rural Fire Service-led Get Ready weekend, with various bushfire awareness and preparedness activities being planned across the state. To support that event in the Blue Mountains we have co-developed, with Blue ARC and the Resilience and Preparedness Group, posters and flyers encouraging residents to make an emergency plan for all the family, including links to useful resources.

Mel Taylor receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre

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