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For too long, no one suspected that any car manufacturer was cheating. Instead it was thought to be a weakness in the test

It is amazing that the Volkswagen and diesel emissions scandal was not discovered earlier. In 2003 nitrogen dioxide alongside London’s Marylebone Road increased by around 20%. As we approached the 2010 legal compliance date, concentrations from traffic went up, not down, and diesel cars were shown to be much more polluting than the official tests led us to believe.

However, according to the EU parliament’s recent inquiry, no one suspected that any car manufacture was cheating. Instead it was thought to be a weakness in the test.

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No matter how hard we dig, the Earth's resources are ultimately finite. Mining image from www.shutterstock.com

Our economy and society ultimately depend on natural resources: land, water, material (such as metals) and energy. But some scientists have recognised that there are hard limits to the amount of these resources we can use. It is our consumption of these resources that is behind environmental problems such as extinction, pollution and climate change.

Even supposedly “green” technologies such as renewable energy require materials, land and solar exposure, and cannot grow indefinitely on this (or any) planet.

Most economic policy around the world is driven by the goal of maximising economic growth (or increase in gross domestic product – GDP). Economic growth usually means using more resources. So if we can’t keep using more and more resources, what does this mean for growth?

Most conventional economists and policymakers now endorse the idea that growth can be “decoupled” from environmental impacts – that the economy can grow, without using more resources and exacerbating environmental problems.

Even the then US president, Barack Obama, in a recent piece in Science argued that the US economy could continue growing without increasing carbon emissions thanks to the rollout of renewable energy.

But there are many problems with this idea. In a recent conference of the Australia-New Zealand Society for Ecological Economics (ANZSEE), we looked at why decoupling may be a delusion.

The decoupling delusion

Given that there are hard limits to the amount of resources we can use, genuine decoupling would be the only thing that could allow GDP to grow indefinitely.

Drawing on evidence from the 600-page Economic Report to the President, Obama referred to trends during the course of his presidency showing that the economy grew by more than 10% despite a 9.5% fall in carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. In his words:

…this “decoupling” of energy sector emissions and economic growth should put to rest the argument that combating climate change requires accepting lower growth or a lower standard of living.

Others have pointed out similar trends, including the International Energy Agency which last year – albeit on the basis of just two years of data – argued that global carbon emissions have decoupled from economic growth.

But we would argue that what people are observing (and labelling) as decoupling is only partly due to genuine efficiency gains. The rest is a combination of three illusory effects: substitution, financialisation and cost-shifting.

Substituting the problem

Here’s an example of substitution of energy resources. In the past, the world evidently decoupled GDP growth from buildup of horse manure in city streets, by substituting other forms of transport for horses. We’ve also decoupled our economy from whale oil, by substituting it with fossil fuels. And we can substitute fossil fuels with renewable energy.

These changes result in “partial” decoupling – that is, decoupling from specific environmental impacts (manure, whales, carbon emissions). But substituting carbon-intensive energy with cleaner, or even carbon-neutral, energy does not free our economies of their dependence on finite resources.

Let’s get something straight: Obama’s efforts to support clean energy are commendable. We can – and must – envisage a future powered by 100% renewable energy, which may help break the link between economic activity and climate change. This is especially important now that President Donald Trump threatens to undo even some of these partial successes.

But if you think we have limitless solar energy to fuel limitless clean, green growth, think again. For GDP to keep growing we would need ever-increasing numbers of wind turbines, solar farms, geothermal wells, bioenergy plantations and so on – all requiring ever-increasing amounts of material and land.

Nor is efficiency (getting more economic activity out of each unit of energy and materials) the answer to endless growth. As some of us pointed out in a recent paper, efficiency gains could prolong economic growth and may even look like decoupling (for a while), but we will inevitably reach limits.

Moving money

The economy can also appear to grow without using more resources, through growth in financial activities such as currency trading, credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities. Such activities don’t consume much in the way of resources, but make up an increasing fraction of GDP.

So if GDP is growing, but this growth is increasingly driven by a ballooning finance sector, that would give the appearance of decoupling.

Meanwhile most people aren’t actually getting any more bang for their buck, as most of the wealth remains in the hands of the few. It’s ephemeral growth at best: ready to burst at the next crisis.

Shifting the cost onto poorer nations

The third way to create the illusion of decoupling is to move resource-intensive modes of production away from the point of consumption. For instance, many goods consumed in Western nations are made in developing nations.

Consuming those goods boosts GDP in the consuming country, but the environmental impact takes place elsewhere (often in a developing economy where it may not even be measured).

In their 2012 paper, Thomas Wiedmann and co-authors comprehensively analysed domestic and imported materials for 186 countries. They showed that rich nations have appeared to decouple their GDP from domestic raw material consumption, but as soon as imported materials are included they observe “no improvements in resource productivity at all”. None at all.

From treating symptoms to finding a cure

One reason why decoupling GDP and its growth from environmental degradation may be harder than conventionally thought is that this development model (growth of GDP) associates value with systematic exploitation of natural systems and also society. As an example, felling and selling old-growth forests increases GDP far more than protecting or replanting them.

Defensive consumption – that is, buying goods and services (such as bottled water, security fences, or private insurance) to protect oneself against environmental degradation and social conflict – is also a crucial contributor to GDP.

Rather than fighting and exploiting the environment, we need to recognise alternative measures of progress. In reality, there is no conflict between human progress and environmental sustainability; well-being is directly and positively connected with a healthy environment.

Many other factors that are not captured by GDP affect well-being. These include the distribution of wealth and income, the health of the global and regional ecosystems (including the climate), the quality of trust and social interactions at multiple scales, the value of parenting, household work and volunteer work. We therefore need to measure human progress by indicators other than just GDP and its growth rate.

The decoupling delusion simply props up GDP growth as an outdated measure of well-being. Instead, we need to recouple the goals of human progress and a healthy environment for a sustainable future.

James Ward works for the University of South Australia. He is also privately affiliated with Sustainable Population Australia.

Keri Chiveralls works for Central Queensland University.

Lorenzo Fioramonti, Paul Sutton, and Robert Costanza do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Activists will challenge permission granted to Cuadrilla for test fracking sites near Blackpool as pressure mounts over the cost of policing the protests

The government will go to court this week to defend test drilling at a fracking site in Lancashire as it comes under pressure to pay hundreds of thousands of pounds to cover the cost of policing anti-fracking protests.

The high court in Manchester will hear two cases on Wednesday that pit Sajid Javid, the communities secretary, against protesters who oppose the permission granted to fracking companies for test sites near Blackpool.

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Figure rises for second consecutive year, says Massachusetts’ top shark expert, warning of ‘public safety issue’ despite no deaths in state’s waters since 1936

Great white sharks are swimming toward the waters off Massachusetts in rising numbers, scientists say, after a second consecutive year showing an increase in predators to Cape Cod.

The latest data from a multiyear study of the ocean predators found that the number of sharks in waters off the vacation haven appeared to be on the rise, said Greg Skomal, a senior scientist with the Massachusetts division of marine fisheries, and the state’s top shark expert.

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MPs condemn ‘waste of money’ as documents show controversial £2bn privatisation has cost taxpayers at least £1m in banking and legal fees

The troubled £2bn privatisation of the Green Investment Bank has already cost at least £1m of taxpayer money in consultancy fees, official documents have revealed.

Ministers have promised that the sale of the bank, which has invested in green projects from offshore windfarms to energy-saving street lights, will deliver value for taxpayers’ money. An announcement on the sale to Australian investment bank Macquarie was expected in January but has yet to materialise amid strong political opposition.

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A giant green sea turtle has been released off the Florida Keys after convalescing from an injury.

There's a roaring international racket in hazardous e-waste. This is the story of how one of our biggest banks discovered its e-waste dumped on West Africa's notorious Agbogbloshie dump in Ghana.

Manu National Park in Peru threatened by roads, oil/gas operations, narco trade, gold-mining, logging and ‘human safaris’

Just under half of UNESCO’s World Heritage sites are under threat, the WWF asserts. Sites deemed threatened include the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, the Pantanal in Brazil and the Virunga National Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo - and 111 others.

But what about the Manu National Park in Peru’s Amazon, which UNESCO calls the most biodiverse place on earth and was declared part of a biosphere reserve in the 1970s? In south-east Peru and stretching for 1.7 million hectares from the tropical Andes to the lowland forest, Manu is home to extraordinary biodiversity and Harakbut, Matsigenka, “Matsigenka-Nanti”, “Mashco-Piro”, Nahua, Quechua and Yine indigenous peoples.

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Rapidly growing Canada goose population is health hazard but quarter of King’s students sign petition to spare the birds

It’s been an exacerbating week for Philip Isaac, domus bursar at King’s College, Cambridge University. It all started with an impassioned letter from students which, invoking the words of Gandhi, called for the peaceful coexistence of scholars and geese. It was only a matter of time before the press got wind of the petition. Journalists flocked to cover the story of the college that’s murdering its wildlife.

Related: Make a honk for rare geese | Patrick Barkham

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Trump administration’s zeal for deregulation seen by environmentalists as a recipe for fossil fuel cronyism, runaway climate change and toxic water crises

Scott Pruitt, administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, caused conniptions among scientists this week by claiming that carbon dioxide isn’t the primary catalyst of global warming. Conservative groups and industry, on the other hand, heard hints that a cherished goal may be within reach.

In 2009 the EPA determined that greenhouse gas emissions “endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations”, opening the door to regulation. Donald Trump’s crusade against government strictures could target this finding, effectively making it official US policy that burning fossil fuels poses no threat to Americans, despite a mountain of scientific literature to the contrary.

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South Uist Though we cannot see the hunters their presence is signalled by the waders that suddenly rise in flocks

Far in the distance the craggy peaks of Skye have been rendered Alpine-like by the overnight snow. Away to the north the high hills of Harris also bear a covering, and even South Uist’s less lofty heights have a dusting of white. There is a hint of warmth in the morning sun, but what makes this a glorious day to be outside is the complete absence of wind, for with even a light breeze it would be skin-flayingly cold.

We’re not the only ones to appreciate the calm, dry weather, for there are aerial predators abroad and the machair is full of birds for them to prey upon. Though we cannot see the hunters their presence is signalled by the groups of waders and starlings that suddenly rise in dense panicked flocks.

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Hector Ruiz has made it his mission to convert cars in Mexico City to run on electricity.

A video captures the moment plankton ingest a plastic microfibre.

From an endangered ground-dwelling bird with whiskers like a cat, to a huge glider that is almost like a 'flying koala', Booderee National Park sounds, and is, like no other.

Scientists say there hasn't been enough time for the corals to recover from damage in 2016.

The CSIRO finds Australia's wheat production has flatlined because of climate change; and is there any hope for a free trade deal with India?

Our new study improves estimates of the rate of ocean warming - a critical component of climate change

New research has convincingly quantified how much the Earth has warmed over the past 56 years. Human activities utilize fossil fuels for many beneficial purposes but have an undesirable side effect of adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at ever-increasing rates. That increase - of over 40%, with most since 1980 - traps heat in the Earth’s system, warming the entire planet.

But how fast is the Earth warming and how much will it warm in the future? Those are the critical questions we need to answer if we are going to make smart decisions on how to handle this issue.

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All of the methods of catching moles described in your article (The long read, 8 March) rely on the violent crushing of a sentient creature. Society wouldn’t tolerate killing a dog in this way, yet moles have a nervous system similar to dogs’ (and humans’), which strongly suggests they are capable of feeling pain and thus suffering. As the article indicates, the total cost of mole “damage” is very low but as it is part of the routine, casual cycle of killing practised by country dwellers we’re expected to accept it. All this because of a few piles of earth on a lawn.

The destruction of wildlife should be prohibited unless absolutely necessary – and only after there is evidence that damage is substantial, cannot be prevented by other intervention and that the killing can be done humanely.

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The recent killing of a rhino in a Paris zoo marks a shocking new development in this ruthless global trade but rhino experts remain optimistic that the situation can be reversed

On the black market it is reputedly worth more than its weight in gold or cocaine, and this week the lure of rhino horn brought the bloody business of poaching to a zoo near Paris. There, in the dead of night, criminals broke in, shot a white rhino called Vince three times in the head and then hacked off its eight-inch horn with a chainsaw.

The attack marks a shocking new development in a crisis that sees more than three rhinos killed every day in their southern African homelands. Trade in rhino horn is completely illegal but demand from Vietnam and China fuels poaching and smuggling, putting the rhinos at risk of extinction.

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The week’s top environment news stories and green events. If you are not already receiving this roundup, sign up here to get the briefing delivered to your inbox

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