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Australia's oceans are heating up. Richard Rydge/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO have released their fourth biennial State of the Climate Report.

State of the Climate 2016 provides an update on the changes and long-term trends in Australia’s climate. The report’s observations are based on the extensive climate monitoring capability and programs of CSIRO and the Bureau, which provide a detailed picture of variability and trends in Australia’s marine and terrestrial climates. The science underpinning State of the Climate informs impact assessment and planning across all sectors of the economy and the environment.

One of the report’s key observations is carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. A key component of global CO₂ monitoring is the joint Bureau and CSIRO atmospheric monitoring station in Cape Grim, Tasmania, one of three premier global baseline monitoring stations in the world, along with Mauna Loa in Hawaii and Alert in Nunavut, Canada.

CO₂ concentrations at Cape Grim passed through 400 parts per million for the first time in May 2016, and global concentrations are now at their highest levels in the past two million years.

It takes time for the climate system to warm in response to increases in greenhouse gases, and the historical emissions over the past century have locked in some warming over the next two decades, regardless of any changes we might make to global emissions in that period. Current and future global emissions will, however, make a difference to the rate and degree of climate change in the second half of the 21st century.

State of the Climate focuses on current climate trends that are likely to continue into the near future. This acknowledges that climate change is happening now, and that we will be required to adapt to changes during the next 30 years.

While natural variability continues to play a large role in Australia’s climate, some long-term trends are apparent. The terrestrial climate has warmed by around 1℃ since 1910, with an accompanying increase in the duration, frequency and intensity of extreme heat events across large parts of Australia. There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a lengthening of the fire season in most fire-prone regions since the 1970s.

Annual mean temperature changes across Australia since 1910. State of the Climate 2016 Trends from 1974 to 2015 in annual 90th percentile of daily Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) at 38 climate reference locations. Trends are in FFDI points per decade and larger circles represent larger trends. Filled circles represent statistically significant trends. Trends are upward (in red), except for Brisbane airport (in blue). State of the Climate 2016

Observations also show that atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere have led to an average reduction in rainfall across parts of southern Australia.

In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia. There has been a decline of around 11% since the mid-1990s in April–October rainfall in the continental southeast. Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997.

Australia’s oceans have also warmed, with sea surface temperature increases closely matching those experienced on land. This warming affects both the marine environment and Australia’s terrestrial climate, due to the large influence of surrounding oceans on our weather systems. Sea levels have risen around Australia, which has the potential to amplify the effects of high tides and storm surges.

Trends in sea surface temperature in the Australian region from 1950 to 2015. State of the Climate 2016 Estimates of the change in ocean heat content over the full ocean depth, from 1960 to present. Shading provides an indication of the confidence range of the estimate. State of the Climate 2016

The report has new findings compared to State of the Climate 2014.

Significantly, we report that warming in the global oceans now extends to at least 2,000 metres below the surface. These observations are made possible by the Argo array of global floats that has been monitoring ocean temperatures over the past decade. When we talk about the climate system continuing to warm in response to historical greenhouse gas emissions, that is almost entirely due to ongoing ocean warming, which these observations show is now steadily in train.

The other new inclusion is the science of extreme event attribution.

In the past five years, an increasing number of studies, using both statistical and modelling techniques, have quantified the role of global warming in individual extreme events. This complements previous science which partly attributes a change in the frequency of extreme weather, such as an increase in the number of heatwaves, to global warming.

In Australia, this includes studies that used the Bureau’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to essentially predict observed extreme events in a modelled climate with and without an enhanced greenhouse effect.

In particular, studies of record heat experienced during Spring in 2013 and 2014 have shown that the observed high temperatures received an extra contribution from background global warming.

These studies are an initial step towards understanding how climate change could affect the dynamics of the climate and weather system. In turn, this work provides greater intelligence for those managing climate risks.

State of the Climate 2016 can be read on either the Bureau or CSIRO‘s websites. The online report includes an extensive list of references and useful links.

Watch the State of the Climate 2016 summary video.

CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and the Department of the Environment and Energy have provided a comprehensive portal for climate projection science, data and information called Climate Change in Australia. This website includes regional climate projections, a publication library, guidance material and a range of interactive tools.

Karl Braganza is the manager of the Climate Monitoring Section in the Bureau of Meteorology's Environment and Research Division. The Bureau of Meteorology provides Australians with environmental intelligence for their safety, sustainability, well-being and prosperity. Our weather, climate and water services include observations, alerts, warnings and forecasts for extreme events.

Steve Rintoul works for CSIRO. He receives funding from the Australian Climate Change Science Program and the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre.

Misleading "live" video from the International Space Station stuns the internet.

This symbolic threshold (Carbon dioxide levels bring climate change into a ‘new era’, 25 October) is one of many very real tipping points the world will experience on a path of climate change due to human effects. The tipping points we should also be paying attention to are the mass extinctions, global warming, melting ice and complete habitat changes we are currently seeing worldwide. Soon we will recognise these not as symbolic thresholds but more as points of no return. The Paris and Kigali agreements are both important for slowing down the climate trend wiping out animal and plant species worldwide. But both are just bandages to the real problem of resource management and consumption practices exacerbating the problems to unsustainable limits.
Caroline Hernandez
Chevy Chase, Maryland, USA

• Join the debate – email guardian.letters@theguardian.com

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Benefit cuts | Third runway | Landlines | Charity shops | Football numbers

Both Aditya Chakrabortty (Opinion, 26 October) and Ken Loach in his film I, Daniel Blake highlight the horrors created by the destruction of social security by austerity and bureaucracy. However, they are in danger of recreating the pernicious distinction between the deserving and undeserving poor. Homelessness, unemployment, ill-health, sanctions and the denial of benefits make some people angry, uncooperative and even violent. Our outrage should not just be on behalf of the nice people.
Ruth Eversley
Paulton, Somerset

• I am told yet again that the decision (Heathrow expansion) is “good for business” (Report, 26 October). We have seen big business drive this country’s economy into one of low wages, low skills, and low productivity. Add in rubbish roads, stuffed trains and minimal housebuilding, plus massive financial misconduct and the trashing of people’s pensions, and it may be “good for business” – but it’s not good for most of us.
Ray Chalker
London

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One of the most demonised patients in history - Gaetan Dugas - has been convincingly cleared of reports he spread HIV to the US, say scientists.

Europe may be performing better in EY’s influential rankings, but the UK has fallen to its lowest position yet, reports BusinessGreen

Earlier this year it was starting to look worryingly like Europe was slamming into reverse gear with its clean energy policy. In its biannual report on renewables investment, released in May, consultancy EY reported that countries across the continent were becoming less attractive to investors as the pipelines of clean energy projects slowed following widespread subsidy cuts and a perceived “scaling back” of ambition.

Almost without exception, European markets slipped down the rankings while emerging economies across Latin America, Asia and Africa took their place near the top of the league table thanks to government plans to deploy green energy as a fast, relatively cheap way to develop their grids.

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Countries including US, Europe, Australia vehemently oppose small hunts by coastal communities but Japan says are unjustly barred from a traditional food source

Japan pleaded with the world’s whaling watchdog Wednesday to allow small hunts by coastal communities, arguing that for three decades these groups had been unjustly barred from a traditional source of food.

The issue of “small type coastal hunting” is a key dispute between pro- and anti-whaling nations gathered in Slovenia for the 66th meeting of the International Whaling Commission (IWC).

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A $100m initiative to listen for radio signals from aliens is targeting a star with an unusual dimming pattern.

Government claims oil extraction is causing minimal disturbance to the Unesco biosphere reserve in the Amazon

Ecuador has confirmed that oil drilling has begun under the country’s Yasuní national park, one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots.

But the government claims that there has been only minimal disturbance to the Unesco biosphere reserve in the Amazon rainforest since extraction of 23,000 barrels of oil a day began last month.

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Scientists are planning to release millions of modified mosquitoes in urban areas of Brazil and Colombia, in an effort to tackle Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses.

State of the Climate report from CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology says human activities have driven ‘significant changes’ to Australia’s climate

Carbon emissions from human activities have driven significant changes to the climate in Australia, including about 1C of warming and an increase in extreme hot days and fire weather, according to the latest State of the Climate report released by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology.

This year the report includes new information on the cause of extreme weather, pointing the finger clearly at carbon emissions from human activities, as well as the latest findings on warming in the oceans.

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Campaigners say leaked documents show ‘undue influence’ by the food industry after plans to limit acrylamide - found in starchy foods such as crisps, cereals and baby foods - are weakened

The European commission has dropped plans to legally limit a pervasive but naturally occurring chemical found in food, that is linked to cancer, just days after lobbying by industry, the Guardian has learned.

Campaigners say that leaked documents revealing the legislative retreat show “undue influence” by the food industry over EU law-making and a “permanent scandal”, although the issue is complex.

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A Dundee-born scientist dies in Antarctica after the snowmobile he was driving fell into a crevasse.

The transport secretary, Chris Grayling, tells BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that building the third Heathrow runway over the M25 rather than tunnelling under the motorway would be a cheaper and quicker way of completing the project

• Listen to the full clip on BBC Radio 4 Today’s website
• Build Heathrow third runway on ramp over M25, minister says

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Millions of pounds are being spent unblocking drains all because of wet wipes being flushed down the toilet.

Syrian refugee Firas el Jasmin struggled to find work in Turkey because of his disability, so took to the streets with his son to collect recyclable material which he sells on to support his family

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Training mums and dads as "super parents" can dramatically improve a child's autism, a study shows.

Six months on from the coral bleaching event, the coral reefs to the north of Port Douglas remain severely damaged.

Victorian government to shift solar feed-in tariffs to time-of-use pricing, in move to better reflect the value of the state’s rooftop solar generation, and their environmental benefits.

Letter to trading standards body calls for manufacturers to remove ‘misleading’ labelling to prevent wipes from blocking sewers and washing up on beaches

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