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A new study shows how a switch in a major climate system could accelerate global temperatures to a 1.5C limit, but some scientists are challenging the assumptions

In the Brazilian city of São Paulo, more than 80 experts, including dozens of climate scientists, gathered back in March for a giant planning meeting

As part of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the group from 39 different countries were starting their work on a major report that will tell governments and policy makers what kind of impacts they can expect when global warming reaches 1.5C.

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The tropical Pacific has a large say in how fast the world warms. GTS Productions/Shutterstock.com

Global warming is rapidly approaching 1.5℃, but according to our new research, conditions in the Pacific Ocean over the coming decades will determine how fast we get there.

In a paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters, we use climate model simulations to quantify how fast global average temperatures will reach 1.5℃ above the pre-industrial average – one of the crucial benchmarks of the Paris Climate Agreement.

The Paris deal calls for governments to pursue the aim of keeping global warming below 1.5℃. But our results suggest that we could hit that level before the end of the next decade if the Pacific Ocean moves into a state we have nicknamed the “cranky uncle” for its effects on global temperatures.

Faster warming

Global temperature records have tumbled in recent years: 2016 was the world’s hottest year on record, the third record-breaking year in a row.

Although human emissions of greenhouse gases are the primary driver of these rising temperatures, there are other factors at play. The climate system is an unwieldy beast, containing a variety of erratic feedbacks and complex mechanisms.

One mechanism with which many people are familiar is El Niño and La Niña, a see-sawing of warm waters across the tropical Pacific every two to seven years. Climate scientists were not at all surprised to see record global temperatures in 2015 and 2016, because of the large El Niño that ended last year.

Another, lesser-known cycle in the Pacific Ocean is the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Since El Niño and La Niña are Spanish for the “the boy” and “the girl”, we have nicknamed their slower-moving relatives the “cranky uncle”, El Tío, and the “kind auntie”, La Tía.

Like El Niño, warm phases of the IPO provoke a temporary acceleration in global temperature, but over much longer periods, lasting between 10 and 30 years.

The cool La Tía phase of the IPO since around 2000, and its associated slowdown in the rate of global warming, may have lulled us into a false sense of security.

Scientists are now concerned that the next El Tío phase could be on its way, which might sustain the relatively rapid global warming seen over the past few years.

Our research

With this in mind, we decided to investigate how soon we are likely to surpass the 1.5℃ level, both with and without the influence of the IPO.

We used climate model simulations to project global temperatures. The models show temperatures varying significantly from year-to-year and decade-to-decade, as we see in the real world. The centre point of the model projections indicates that the 1.5℃ level would be reached just before 2030, with 75% of the model projections crossing 1.5℃ before 2032.

With the recent slowdown period in mind, we wondered how the next IPO phase, El Tío or La Tía, would influence global temperature. We found that the rate at which global average temperature approaches the 1.5℃ level is influenced significantly by the IPO.

The influence of the IPO on global temperatures towards 1.5°C. Author supplied

El Tío phases are responsible for an acceleration in global temperature. The centre point of the El Tío projections passes the 1.5℃ level in around 2027, and a quarter of our projections pass 1.5℃ as early as 2024.

For La Tía, the projected rate of warming is reduced, and the centre year is 2031 – the kind auntie gives us a little more breathing space.

So, is the Paris agreement a failure?

No. The Paris agreement is a critically important step in the right direction.

Although we will soon surpass the 1.5℃ warming benchmark, we still have a chance to turn around and head back down the hill. But to reduce global temperatures, we need not only to reduce our net emissions to zero, but to move swiftly into net negative carbon emissions territory. That means that overall we will need to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, not add more.

But we are a very long way from that point. There is a lot of work to do.

The implications of swiftly rising global temperature are many and varied. Our group and other scientists have quantified the changing likelihood of extreme events such as heatwaves, coral bleaching, droughts and floods.

For the next few decades we have to accept that we are likely to see more extreme events as the effect of continued rising global temperatures takes its toll.

We can’t hide from our cranky uncle, but we can limit climate change and its impacts. Although the political will for evidence-based climate policy seems to be waning in some quarters, the message from climate scientists has not changed:

We need swift global cooperation to dramatically reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Ben Henley receives funding from an ARC Linkage Project and is an associate investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

Malte Meinshausen receives funding from an ARC Future Fellowship.

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Locals at Dooagh, Achill island, had got used to their sandless beach, which storms in 1984 turned into just rocks and pools. But a freak tide at Easter has brought hundreds of tonnes of sand back to the bay off Ireland’s County Mayo coast

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An ancient creature

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Cross-section of MPs urge £612m pension fund to show greater leadership and “take climate change seriously”

A campaign calling on parliament’s £612m pension fund to divest from fossil fuels has won the backing of 50 MPs from across the UK’s main political parties.

The Divest Parliament campaign has announced it has secured support from a cross-section of MPs from Labour, the Conservatives, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, SDLP and Plaid Cymru, who are all urging the Parliamentary Contributory Pension Fund (PCPF) to show greater leadership on tackling climate change.

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Administrator Scott Pruitt, in choosing not to renew nine members’ terms, has ‘eviscerated’ board of scientific counselors, says chair

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A daring Australian Museum expedition to Balls Pyramid near Lord Howe Island has succeeded in its search for the rare and elusive Lord Howe Island stick insect

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A new study finds that explaining the techniques of science denial makes people resistant to their effects

After receiving misinformation from the anti-vaccine movement, including its founder Andrew Wakefield, immunization rates plummeted in a community of Somali immigrants in Minnesota, causing a measles outbreak among their children. It’s a disturbing trend on the rise in America that shows the importance of immunization and the dangerous power of misinformation.

A new paper published in PLOS One by John Cook, Stephan Lewandowsky, and Ullrich Ecker tests the power of inoculation; not against disease, but against the sort of misinformation that created the conditions leading to Minnesota measles outbreak. Inoculation theory suggests that exposing people to the tricks used to spread misinformation can equip them with the tools to recognize and reject such bogus claims.

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While travelling across the country’s vast swampland – the Sudd – doing medical assessments, Chandra Gilmore, International Medical Corps’ South Sudan famine response team leader, took photographs and notes

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The French collection was incinerated by Australian biosecurity officers due to missing paperwork.

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The tragic death of Mike Hall, hit by a car in an Australian road race, left a hole in the world of endurance cycling. Craig Cunningham is one of many he inspired to ride an audax and experience the thrill of these most extreme rides

On 31 March I remember waking and looking at my phone to find an abundance of posts commemorating the life of cyclist Mike Hall. Hall was hit by a motorist in Australia and killed, just hours from completing the Indian Pacific Wheel Race which saw contestants ride across Australia unsupported, with the hardest riders pushing themselves for as much as 20 hours a day.

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Email mix-up blamed after historically significant plant samples incinerated by quarantine officials

Australian biosecurity officials have destroyed historically significant plant samples from 19th century France and damaged the reputation of Australian researchers, the head of the peak herbaria body has said.

In two separate incidents, quarantine officials have incinerated specimens sent to Australian research facilities from overseas.

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Transformation of former coal plant to 42MW solar farm in north Queensland set to begin with $60m from CEFC taking it to financial close.

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