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Trade Minister Steven Ciobo, speaking on Q&A. Q&A

The Conversation is fact-checking claims made on Q&A, broadcast Mondays on the ABC at 9.35pm. Thank you to everyone who sent us quotes for checking via Twitter using hashtags #FactCheck and #QandA, on Facebook or by email.

Excerpt from Q&A, May 30, 2016.

Global demand for coal is still going through the roof. – Trade Minister Steven Ciobo, speaking on Q&A, May 30, 2016.

Trade Minister Steve Ciobo told the Q&A audience that global demand for coal is still going through the roof. (Watch from 2:38 in the clip above.) Is that correct?

Checking the source

When asked for a source to support his statement, a spokesman for Steven Ciobo said the minister had addressed the issue in a tweet sent the day after the Q&A program aired.

Ciobo’s tweet refers to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2014 Medium-Term Coal Market Report.

This report said:

In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel. 2013 coal demand grew 2.4% on a tonnage basis, more than oil and gas, enhancing its position as the second-largest primary energy source and closing the gap with oil.

The report, however, goes on to note that coal prices in 2014 were low due to significant global oversupply, saying that:

In 2014, coal oversupply persists and very low coal prices continued to dominate. For a few years, the focus of coal producers was to expand production. New capacity was constantly added and demand led by China consumed every additional tonne. However, since 2011, oversupply and low prices have dominated.

Fast-forward one year, and the IEA’s 2015 Medium-Term Coal Market Report says that global coal demand growth has “halted”:

For the first time since the 1990s, global coal demand growth halted in 2014. This was the result of a combination of some structural and temporal factors, mostly in China, where half of global coal is used… Given the economic rebalancing in China and ongoing structural decline in OECD countries, even with the continuation of growth in India and ASEAN countries, a downward trend in global coal consumption in 2015 is likely.

Declining coal consumption in China is reducing global demand

The decrease in coal consumption in China was effectively an overhang from the global financial crisis (GFC).

During the GFC, China sought to avoid economic decline by a significant domestic stimulus program.

The stimulus program bolstered investment in construction and manufacturing in the years following, but is now petering out. Reports point to a worsening situation in 2015, as coal imports declined sharply from 2014.

Further evidence of declining global coal demand is the fall in coal prices out of Newcastle.

A good indication of coal demand is the share prices for coal miners. In the US and in Australia, coal mining companies’ share prices are not showing evidence of high expectations of growth in demand.

Author provided. Can India fill the gap?

The IEA’s 2015 Medium-Term Coal Market Report noted that India is the only major economy with strong coal growth.

However, the report found that:

India is not the new China. As forecast in former editions of this report, India will become the second-largest coal consumer in the world, bypassing the United States, and the largest importer of thermal coal… [However], growth in India and ASEAN countries will not compensate for the new trajectory of Chinese coal demand.

The situation in India is fluid. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reported to be a champion of solar energy and the country is pursuing significant investment in solar (as well as coal).

India’s Energy Minister Piyush Goyal is committed to eliminate costly coal imports of thermal coal for use in electricity generation.

IEA modelling gives clues about future global coal demand

The IEA makes projections into the future in a report called the World Energy Outlook.

Last year’s projections provided three scenarios: a current policies scenario, a new policies scenario (also known as the medium scenario) and a 450 scenario.

The 450 scenario models energy demand based on policies required to cap the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to 450 ppm (parts per million). That’s the level needed to stand a chance of keeping global warming to 2°C.

The IEA’s new policies (or “medium”) scenario and subsequent modelling of global leaders' commitments to carbon reduction assume that “climate ambition is not raised progressively” and warming will most likely be in the 2.7 to 3.5 degree range.

Author provided.

Global leaders reaffirmed at the Paris Climate Conference the goal of limiting global temperature increase well below 2°C.

On that basis, the IEA’s 450 scenario may give us a clue about future energy demand in a world committed to avoiding dangerous climate change.

The IEA’s 450 scenario shows a very significant decline in consumption of coal in the decades ahead. That also calls into question the minister’s claim that coal demand is still going through the roof.

Verdict

Steven Ciobo’s statement that global coal demand is “going through the roof” is inaccurate.

Review

The FactCheck is correct, but the author could place more emphasis on the central scenario from the International Energy Agency, rather than its 450 scenario.

The latest predictions for the future of coal demand from the International Energy Agency have highlighted that the massive growth in demand for coal over the past 15 years will not continue, and the fuel faces more uncertain times.

Consumption of coal across OECD countries is predicted to fall 40% by 2040. Yet the central scenario of the IEA still has coal meeting 10% of future increases in energy needs to 2040.

This is driven in particular by Southeast Asia, where primary energy demand for coal is predicted to triple between 2020 and 2040.

This means that the most likely IEA scenario is that global consumption of coal will continue to increase but at a much slower rate than before, noting that there is still uncertainty about how China’s and India’s consumption may change over time. – John Rolfe

Have you ever seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at checkit@theconversation.edu.au. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.

John Rolfe receives funding from the Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP) for a research project on mine closures and land use change back to agriculture.

Lynette Molyneaux does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Huge revenues generated by the Camisea project in Peru’s Amazon, but locals suffer from health epidemics and lack of clean water

Every year a group of experts called the South Peru Panel issues a report on the country’s largest ever energy development which extracts natural gas and natural gas liquids from the Amazon and pipes them all the way across the Andes to Peru’s Pacific coast. The conclusions of its latest report? “Very positive macroeconomic benefits” and “without precedent in Peru’s modern economic history”, but pathetic, if not disastrous, for the indigenous people living near where the gas is extracted.

The South Peru Panel was established in 2009 as a condition of a US$458.6 million loan by the Export-Import Bank of the United States to the Peru Liquified Natural Gas Project (Peru LNG), run by US company Hunt Oil, to build a 408 km pipeline, a gas liquefaction plant on the coast, and a marine terminal. The total cost is reported to have been almost US$4 billion - making it at the time the largest foreign direct investment in Peru’s history, according to the Panel, and the first and to date only LNG export project in Latin America.

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Drivers in Tunbridge Wells have been left outraged after hungry foxes apparently chewed through the brake cables of several cars. Kent police have now warned drivers to check their brakes before setting off on journeys.

Officers called on wildlife expert John Bryant to determine whether there was an explanation other than deliberate damage to six vehicles in the second half of May. He concluded that a family of teenage fox cubs, rather than a human vandal, had gnawed through the brake cables.

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You know that feeling when you open the fridge and are met with something “on the nose”. We all know what food waste looks and smells like.

But food waste stinks in more ways than one. It is expensive, costing the average household over A$2,200 a year, and it undermines the resilience and sustainability of our food supply.

A new report from our Foodprint Melbourne Project has estimated the amount of food that is wasted in feeding Melbourne. We found that feeding Melbourne generates more than 900,000 tonnes of edible food waste every year, or over 200 kg per person.

This is enough to feed more than 2 million people for a year*.

Food waste occurs at different stages for each food type. Foodprint Melbourne Undermining sustainability

Growing this wasted food uses 180 gigalitres of water each year, or 113 litres per person per day. This is equivalent to running your shower for an extra 10 minutes a day.

This wasted food also uses around 3.6 million hectares of land – around 41 ha per person, or more than 20 times the area of the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

And this wasted food is responsible for around 2.5 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, 60% of which is generated by food waste rotting in landfill, and the rest in producing the wasted food.

This uneaten food is not only a source of unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions. It represents a waste of natural resources that are in increasingly limited supply.

Australia is a water-scarce region that is likely to become drier due to climate change, while only 6% of Australia’s land is suitable for growing crops.

With the associated waste of natural resources, high levels of food waste add to the challenge of producing sufficient food to feed a growing population.

Reducing food waste

There are many ways to reduce food waste at home. These include making meal plans, sharing leftover food with friends or neighbours, checking the fridge before going shopping and storing food correctly.

The Cloud-Freezer app can help you to keep track of what’s in your freezer and fridge. Worm farms, bokashi bins and other forms of composting are also great ways to divert food waste from landfill.

While we can all take steps to reduce food waste at home, we need to look at the bigger picture. Our research shows that more than 60% of food waste is generated before food reaches your fridge or freezer.

Strict standards defining the shape, size and colour of fresh fruit and vegetables in supermarkets can mean that a significant proportion of a crop never leaves the farm.

Low prices for second-grade produce can make it financially unviable for farmers to pick, pack and ship imperfect produce. Pressure to keep supermarket shelves full for appearance’s sake, losses during food processing and storage problems also lead to food being wasted.

Initiatives that aim to make more imperfect fruit and vegetables available, such as Woolworth’s Odd Bunch campaign, go some way to reducing this problem, but more needs to be done.

Our research estimates that if food waste was halved across the food supply chain, Melbourne could save 1.8 million hectares of land, 90 million litres of water and avoid 1.3 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each year.

We need to halve food waste

In recognition of the significant challenge that food waste represents to sustainable food systems, the new Sustainable Development Goals set a target to halve the global food waste per person that is generated by retailers and consumers by 2030.

The United States government has also set a national target to reduce food waste by 50% by 2030. It has established a cross-sector partnership of stakeholders across the food system to tackle the problem.

The UK government has been an early mover in taking action to tackle food waste. In 2007, it launched the WRAP Love Food Hate Waste program aimed at reducing food waste. An evaluation in 2012 showed that avoidable waste of food and drink (that could have been eaten) had fallen by 21% in five years following the launch of the program.

Most of this reduction has been in household food waste. The WRAP program is now working with the food industry to reduce waste in other sectors. The successful UK Love Food Hate Waste program aimed at reducing household food waste has been taken up by state governments in Victoria and New South Wales.

Australia is developing a national food waste strategy – the Food Waste 2025 Strategy – and stakeholders from across the food supply chain meet this month to discuss how to reduce food waste.

Australia should follow suit in setting a target to halve food waste across the food supply chain to put Australia’s food system on a more sustainable footing.

*Correction: This figure has been updated. It previously incorrectly stated that Melbourne’s food waste is enough to feed 2,000 people per year.

Seona Candy is a research fellow on the Foodprint Melbourne project, which is funded by the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation. Project partners include the City of Melbourne and the peak bodies representing the local government areas in Melbourne's city fringe foodbowl. She has previously received funding from an Australian Research Council Linkage grant on the project ‘Modelling policy interventions to protect Australia's food security in the face of environmental sustainability challenges’ (LP120100168), a collaboration between researchers at the Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab (VEIL) at the University of Melbourne, Deakin University and Australian National University. She is currently also receiving funding from the Cooperative Research Centre for Low Carbon Living for a project investigating urban innovations for post-carbon resilient cities.

Jennifer Sheridan is a researcher on the Foodprint Melbourne project, which which is funded by the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation. Project partners include the City of Melbourne and the peak bodies representing the local government areas in Melbourne's city fringe foodbowl.

Rachel Carey is a Research Fellow on the Foodprint Melbourne project, which is funded by the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation. Project partners include the City of Melbourne and the peak bodies representing the local government areas in Melbourne's city fringe foodbowl. She is also a Research Fellow on the project 'Regulating Food Labels: The case of free range food products in Australia', which is funded by the Australian Research Council.

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The Bropkas meet the grid

In what must surely be a first for the Conversation, I am writing this post from the village of Sakteng in remote eastern Bhutan. That I can do so is a remarkable testimony to the will of the Bhutanese government in the electrification of what has to be one of the most difficult countries in the World to electrify.

Sakteng is one of Bhutan’s two main Bropka settlements. To get to Sakteng we walked from Merak, the other main Bropka settlement. It took us 8-hours trekking over the Nakchung pass at 4,100 m, though the locals take only half that time. From Sakteng to the road head is another 2 hours walk.

The Bropkas are yak herders that originate from Tibet, and inhabit the high mountains along the north eastern border of Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh in neighbouring India. In many respects, Bropka life seems little changed from time immemorial, governed by the seasonal movement of their yak herds up and down the precipitous Himalayan mountains slopes. Traditional dress remains very much the order of the day with men in their dear skin jackets and woman adorned by their astonishing yak fur hats. But lives in these remote villages have changed in very real and tangible ways.

Bropka women from the village of Merak in eastern Bhutan, with their distinctive yak-fur hats.

Despite the road only just now reaching Merak, and not planned to get to Sakteng for a few years yet, both villages are on the grid, and have been for almost 10 years. Mobile telephony arrived soon after electricity.

A nation defined by steepness

Like few other countries, Bhutan is defined by steepness.

As anyone who has flown into the only international airport at Paro understands, precipitous slopes rise alarmingly even in the flattest parts of the country. Everywhere, the densely forested slopes are covered with landslide debris - primed for further collapse given the slightest nudge. I doubt that there is any country with a greater steepness index. One of the Himalaya’s most iconic images, the Taktshang monastery, testifies to the way the Bhutanese so readily accommodate this steepness in their daily life.

The Taktshang (Tiger’s Nest) Monastry, Bhutan.

By comparison with other segments of the Himalaya, the Bhutanese frontal ranges bordering the Indian plains of Assam and West Bengal are unusually steep. The steepness has afforded a natural defence that has helped isolate this remote kingdom for generations. The traditional Bhutanese strongholds lie in regions of comparatively low relief at 1500-3000 metres elevation, between the steep frontal ranges and the towering peaks of the high Himalayan along its northern border with Tibet. In more recent times this very steepness has created political distress of its own kind, as once welcome Nepali settlers of southern borderlands were evicted creating some 200,000 refugees.

But its topographic steepness comes with another penalty - the steep cost of moving things around.

On this trip we started our geological work in the south east corner of the country near the outpost of Daifam. By the way the crow flies it is just 250 kms from the nation’s capital Thimphu.

You can’t get to Daifam from Thimphu without leaving Bhutan and traversing through Assam. The quickest route is via the border town of Phuntsholing, 5 hours from Thimphu, and then another 9 hours via Assam. Alternatively you can take Bhutan’s main “highway” east from Thimphu to Trashigang (20 hours), down to Sandrup Jongkhar (5 hours) and across Assam (5 hours). Crows would appear to have it easy in Bhutan.

The isolated villages in the mountains to the north of Daifam are also mostly connected to the grid. To do so required carrying all the poles and wires, often up to a day’s walk up steep slopes through thick forest. Remote rural houses are provided with 100 units of electricity free, but do not go close to consuming that.

In the Bangtar district, on the southern border between Daifam and Sandrup Jongkhar, we met the electrical engineer helping build the transmission line that will send power from a hydro plant near Mongar in the north down to Assam in India. He explained it in some places it will take 2-days by foot to carry the material for the poles and wires from the road head to the proposed transmission route. All of Bhutan’s grid supplied electricity is sourced from hydro, and exports already greatly exceed domestic consumption.

The question of coal

Back in Australia, our coal lobby is fond of quotes of the ilk … “_Only when Third World children can do homework at night using cheap coal-fired electricity can they escape from poverty” .

And at least some in our government seem of a like mind.

Why, might we ask, does it matter that it is just “cheap coal-fired” electricity that alone will alleviate poverty? Why does not cheap hydro, geothermal, nuclear or whatever else, also do the trick?

No doubt coal has been a useful source of electricity in the third world, and will likely remain so for some time given that not all countries are endowed with the hydro resources of the Bhutanese. But is clear that Bhutan puts paid to the idea that coal alone can alleviate poverty.

But Bhutan also shows that there is something more fundamental that our coal lobby is loathe to acknowledge, and it speaks to the very paradox that lies at the heart of their claim - given that cheap coal has been around powering electricity systems for over 150 years, why are any children still living in poverty?

Could it be that the purported saviour of the world’s poor - the coal industry - doesn’t really have such a flash track record in the altruism stakes after all?

Bhutan shows that it is not really coal or any other source of energy that is the missing ingredient in providing electricity to children of the Third World.

Despite the immense impediment to transporting anything in such incredibly steep and forested terrain, Bhutan’s remarkable program of electrification suggests the real missing ingredient in providing access to energy is the will of government.

Disclosure

Mike Sandiford receives funding from the Australian Research Council for his geological research.

Thai authorities says they will press charges against the controversial Tiger Temple, after 40 dead cubs were found during a raid on the site.