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The Great Barrier Reef has become a major issue in the federal election campaign, with the stakes raised by the most severe bleaching ever documented and suggestions that the next few years will be our last chance to avert major damage to this World Heritage-listed icon.

Last week, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and federal environment minister Greg Hunt announced a further commitment of up to A$1 billion over ten years, from an existing A$10 billion “special account” administered by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

Turnbull said that this new Reef Fund will provide loans to finance more energy- and water-efficient irrigation systems on farms, as well as improved pesticide and fertiliser application systems. He also raised the possibility of the fund being used to finance solar panels on farms, saying:

The Reef Fund will support clean energy projects in the Reef catchment. It will finance solar panels and other renewable energy substitutes on farms as well as more energy efficient equipment in agriculture, local government and tourism.

The government says that this financing will be on top of A$461 million already pledged for the Great Barrier Reef, currently planned to be spent on incentive programs to help farmers move to more “water quality friendly” management practices as has been happening over the past seven years.

Labor, for its part, has pledged A$500 million over five years – including A$123 million as a continuation of an existing Coalition pledge – to be split between scientific research, pollution reduction and restoration projects, and reef management.

Is this enough money?

We already have relatively robust estimates of the funds needed to bring the reef’s water quality into line with the government’s official water quality guidelines set by Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority in 2010. Unfortunately, we also know it will cost much more than either major party has pledged so far.

One estimate (on which I worked) puts the cost at between A$5 billion and A$10 billion over ten years. These amounts are far in excess of the current spending trajectory, based on what has already been spent: just under half a billion dollars on farming and water-quality management, as outlined above.

This funding has achieved some limited success in reducing pollution on the Great Barrier Reef. But it is now clear that much more funding and regulation will be needed to meet the required water quality guidelines.

How much money have the parties pledged?

Financial commitments, both in government budgets and election pledges, are difficult to assess accurately. Funding can be committed across several budgets, and it is important to distinguish between no-strings funding and loan financing.

Here is a breakdown of what the three leading parties are promising to deliver.

The Coalition will spend A$450 million over 6 years (from various programs including Reef Trust and Reef Plan) or about A$350 million over 5 years (from this July) plus the new A$1 billion loan facility, which will be portioned out over 10 years.

Labor has made a A$500-million, five-year commitment, albeit contingent on maintaining A$123 million of funding previously pledged by the Coalition, with A$377 million representing newly pledged funds.

Labor’s half-billion-dollar total can be broken down into A$377 million of direct, on-ground spending plus other current ongoing budget funding. The other roughly A$130 million is designated for research and organisational management.

The Greens have pledged A$500 million in new funding, to be spent on improved farming practices and other land restoration projects, plus a A$1.2-billion loan facility to help farmers transition to low-pollution farming methods. Both schemes would be administered over five years.

The Greens have also promised to retain A$370 in existing funding for water-quality projects, which it says brings its total financial plan for the reef to more than A$2 billion.

The Greens have also promised to use the law to protect the reef, by using the powers of the GBR Marine Park Act of 1975 to regulate polluting activities in the reef’s nearby river catchments. Tightening these regulations could help to reduce pollution faster, potentially reducing the amount of money needed to hit the reef’s pollution targets.

The Queensland government has also allocated A$90 million to spend on direct water quality improvement measures over the next few years. It will also use its regulatory powers under the state’s Great Barrier Reef Protection Amendment Act of 2009 to improve the region’s farming practices.

Loans and profits

One large question hanging over the the Coalition and Greens' loan pledges is whether farmers will be keen to accept this financing, even at “low” interest rates. As many farmers are currently unwilling even to accept grant money to improve practices which provide them with little financial benefit, it is difficult to foresee a wide takeup of a loan facility.

Many environmentally beneficial changes to farm practice bring no net profit for the farmers themselves. Farming lobby group Canegrowers has questioned whether this is the best approach, arguing that the industry would rather receive dollar-matching grants than loans.

The Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) is currently providing loans via the major banks to allow farmers to invest in energy-efficient equipment, with interest rates discounted by up to 70 basis points relative to commercial rates. This would be the model that would most likely be followed for the new proposal.

Future loans doled out under the Coalition’s A$1 billion fund would need to remain within the CEFC’s broad investment mandate of funding projects and technologies that reduce greenhouse emissions. Thus, more efficient fertiliser use, higher-efficiency irrigation pumps, and low-till cropping would all fit the bill.

It is unclear, however, whether other farming improvements that could benefit the reef – such as gully stabilisation or repair – would be judged to come under the mandate of the CEFC loans, or whether they might be excluded.

Regardless, the proposed loan program will still not put nearly enough funds into what is a pressing issue, and a parallel system of focused grants for individual pollution-reduction projects would seem to us to be a sensible approach.

Without stronger regulation (which only the Greens are suggesting) and considerably more funding than any of the main parties is yet willing to provide – not to mention stronger action on emissions reductions throughout the economy – none of these policies promises a particularly rosy future for the Great Barrier Reef.

This article was co-written by David Rickards, Managing Director of Social Enterprise Finance Australia.

Jon Brodie receives research funding from the Australian and Queensland Governments, the UN, Bancroft Station Wines, Queensland NRM bodies such as the NQ Dry Tropics NRM Group.

Aigas, Highlands The pine marten undulated through the trees in such soft eel-like loops that one could imagine it was an animal lacking in bone

For all their recent spread – they now skirt the edges of several Scottish cities and pop up occasionally even in England as far south as Shropshire – pine martens are still rare and hard to see. Aigas field study centre, with its dedicated hides and long-established feeding programme, must be one of the best places in the country to see them.

The closest I’d come in the previous 40 years were glimpses of a close relative, the beech marten, dead at the sides of Greek roads. So when one came bounding through the shadow towards us, it was a wonderful moment.

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Fossil fuel industry-funded organisations have played a big role in climate denial. Coal power image from www.shutterstock.com

The fossil fuel industry has spent many millions of dollars on confusing the public about climate change. But the role of vested interests in climate science denial is only half the picture.

Interest in this topic has spiked with the latest revelation regarding coalmining company Peabody Energy. After Peabody filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, documentation became available revealing the scope of Peabody’s funding to third parties. The list of funding recipients includes trade associations, lobby groups and climate-contrarian scientists.

This latest revelation is significant because in recent years, fossil fuel companies have become more careful to cover their tracks. An analysis by Robert Brulle found that from 2003 to 2010, organisations promoting climate misinformation received more than US$900 million of corporate funding per year.

However, Brulle found that from 2008, open funding dropped while funding through untraceable donor networks such as Donors Trust (otherwise known as the “dark money ATM”) increased. This allowed corporations to fund climate science denial while hiding their support.

The decrease in open funding of climate misinformation coincided with efforts to draw public attention to the corporate funding of climate science denial. A prominent example is Bob Ward, formerly of the UK Royal Society, who in 2006 challenged Exxon-Mobil to stop funding denialist organisations.

John Cook interviews Bob Ward at COP21, Paris.

The veils of secrecy have been temporarily lifted by the Peabody bankruptcy proceedings, revealing the extent of the company’s third-party payments, some of which went to fund climate misinformation. However, this is not the first revelation of fossil fuel funding of climate misinformation – nor is it the first case involving Peabody.

In 2015, Ben Stewart of Greenpeace posed as a consultant to fossil fuel companies and approached prominent climate denialists, offering to pay for reports promoting the benefits of fossil fuels. The denialists readily agreed to write fossil-fuel-friendly reports while hiding the funding source. One disclosed that he had been paid by Peabody to write contrarian research. He had also appeared as an expert witness and written newspaper op-eds.

John Cook interviews Ben Stewart, Greenpeace at COP21, Paris. The bigger picture of fossil-fuelled denial

Peabody’s funding of climate change information and misinformation is one episode in a much larger history of fossil-fuel-funded misinformation. An analysis of more than 40,000 texts by contrarian sources found that organisations who received corporate funding published more climate misinformation, a trend that increased over time.

The following figure shows the use of the claim that “CO₂ is good” (a favourite argument of Peabody Energy) has increased dramatically among corporate-funded sources compared with unfunded ones.

Prevalence of denialist claim from corporate funded and non-funded sources. Farrell (2015)

In 1991, Western Fuels Association combined with other groups representing fossil fuel interests to produce a series of misinformation campaigns. This included a video promoting the positive benefits of carbon dioxide, with hundreds of free copies sent to journalists and university libraries. The goal of the campaign was to “reposition global warming as theory (not fact)”, attempting to portray the impression of an active scientific debate about human-caused global warming.

ExxonSecrets.org has been tracking fossil-fuel-funded misinformation campaigns for more than two decades – documenting more than A$30 million of funding from Exxon alone to denialist think tanks from 1998 to 2014.

Exxon’s funding of climate science denial over this period is particularly egregious considering that it knew full well the risks from human-caused climate change. David Sassoon, founder of Pulitzer Prize-winning news organisation Inside Climate News led an investigation into Exxon’s internal research, discovering that its own scientists had warned the company of the harmful impacts of fossil fuel burning as long ago as the 1970s.

John Cook interviews David Sassoon from Inside Climate News.

Even Inside Climate News’s revelation of industry’s knowledge of the harmful effects of climate change before engaging in misinformation campaigns has precedence. In 2009, an internal report for the Global Climate Coalition, a group representing fossil fuel industry interests, was leaked to the press.

It showed that the coalition’s own scientific experts had advised it in 1995 that “[t]he scientific basis for the Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO₂ on climate is well established and cannot be denied”. Nevertheless, the organisation proceeded to deny climate science and promote the benefits of fossil fuel emissions.

Ideology: the other half of an “unholy alliance”

However, to focus solely on industry’s role in climate science denial misses half the picture. The other significant player is political ideology. At an individual level, numerous surveys (such as here, here and and here) have found that political ideology is the biggest predictor of climate science denial.

People who fear the solutions to climate change, such as increased regulation of industry, are more likely to deny that there is a problem in the first place – what psychologists call “motivated disbelief”.

Consequently, groups promoting political ideology that opposes market regulation have been prolific sources of misinformation about climate change. This productivity has been enabled by the many millions of dollars flowing from the fossil fuel industry. Naomi Oreskes, co-author of Merchants of Doubt, refers to this partnership between vested interests and ideological groups as an “unholy alliance”.

Reducing the influence

To reduce the influence of climate science denial, we need to understand it. This requires awareness of both the role of political ideology and the support that ideological groups have received from vested interests.

Without this understanding, it’s possible to make potentially inaccurate accusations such as climate denial being purely motivated by money, or that it is intentionally deceptive. Psychological research tells us that ideologically driven confirmation bias (misinformation) is almost indistinguishable from intentional deception (disinformation).

Video from free online course Making Sense of Climate Science Denial (launches August 9).

The fossil fuel industry has played a hugely damaging role in promoting misinformation about climate change. But without the broader picture including the role of political ideology, one can build an incomplete picture of climate science denial, leading to potentially counterproductive responses.

John Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Voracious predator with sting that has been known to kill humans is spotted in waters off Turkey and Cyprus

The lionfish – a tropical creature with poisonous barbs and a painful sting that can kill humans in rare cases – may be spreading through the Mediterranean, a conservation group has warned.

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (UICN) said the fish had been spotted in waters around Turkey and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean.

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GREAT MOMENTS IN SCIENCE: The worth of all currencies from stone coins to Bitcoins is based on people trusting the transaction system. Just ask the people of Yap, writes Dr Karl.

Temperatures around the world are rising faster than scientists can develop varieties that can cope with a warmer world, according to a new study.

STICKY TONGUE: A tongue coated in mucus as sticky as honey is the key to a chameleon's ability to catch their prey.

New studies show that tiny synthetic fibers are entering the digestive tracts of aquatic animals and potentially poisoning our food chain

The first time professor Sherri Mason cut open a Great Lakes fish, she was alarmed at what she found. Synthetic fibers were everywhere. Under a microscope, they seemed to be “weaving themselves into the gastrointestinal tract”. Though she had been studying aquatic pollution around the Great Lakes for several years, Mason, who works for the State University of New York Fredonia, had never seen anything like it.

New studies indicate that the fibers in our clothes could be poisoning our waterways and food chain on a massive scale. Microfibers – tiny threads shed from fabric – have been found in abundance on shorelines where waste water is released.

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US weather agency says bleaching is now the most widespread on record and is likely to continue for unprecedented third year

The coral bleaching event sweeping the globe and destroying vast tracts of valuable coral reef is now officially the most widespread in recorded history, and is likely to continue for an unprecedented third year, according to the US weather agency.

For the coming four months, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration says its forecasts show warm ocean temperatures are expected to cause bleaching in the northern hemisphere, including around Hawaii, Micronesia, the Florida Keys and Puerto Rico.

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As the world becomes more connected, invasive species are spreading further. While these species pose threats to our ecosystems, they arguably pose an even greater threat to our agriculture and food security.

Insect pests such as silverleaf whitefly, Asian gypsy moth, and Khapra beetle, are all ranked as major threats and can have significant and far-reaching impacts on agriculture and forest industries around the world.

Many researchers have looked at individual pests to assess their potential threat to particular countries. But no one has ever looked at the invasive threat from a large number of invasive species on agricultural systems at the global level.

Today we have published a paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which attempts to do this. We assessed almost 1,300 insect pests and fungal pathogens. We looked at where they are currently found, trade between those countries, and which crops in each country are vulnerable to attack from these species.

For each country, we estimated the potential impact of those invasive species on their agricultural industries. The most vulnerable countries are developing nations, with sub-Saharan African countries in particular being the most vulnerable, as you can see in the map below.

Our research identified the country’s most threatened by invasive species to be from sub-Saharan Africa. CSIRO Arrival

We combined a great deal of information to estimate a country’s vulnerability to invasive species, such as the global distribution of invasive species, the direction of trade data between countries, the types and value of crops grown in each country, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of each country.

We assessed each country individually, and identified which of the 1,300 pest species were not currently found there. We then determined whether any of those species are known to have an impact on any of the crops grown in that country.

If a species was known to have an impact, we then looked at which countries that species was found in and if the country in question traded with any of those countries.

If it did, we estimated how likely it is that species could travel to the country in question based on the level of trade (this has been repeatedly shown to be correlated to the number of invasive species in a region).

Establishment

If a species could arrive at a country, the next question was whether it could establish. To determine how likely it would be for a species to establish, we used a novel method, which uses artificial intelligence to compare the source country with the target country.

The method (called a “self organizing map”) compares the collection of species present in each country to determine how similar the two countries are. The more similar they are, the more likely it is that a species from one country could establish in another. The map is able to simultaneously analyse thousands of species and hundreds of countries, making a global analysis possible.

Impact

Once we’d figured out if a species could arrive and establish, we wanted an estimate of potential impact. Economic impact is very difficult to estimate even just for one species in one location and the data was simply not available for us at the global level.

As an alternative, we identified the impact of 140 of our 1,300 species and used this to represent the range of possible impacts. We used this to estimate the impact of all the other species on every crop in every country.

Vulnerability

Once we’d done this for every species in every country, we put these together to get an estimate of the total potential impact of all invasive species that could invade a particular country.

We found that invasive species would have the largest potential impact on the US and China. This isn’t surprising: these two countries not only have the largest agricultural economies, but also have the largest trade values.

But they are also huge economies with many other economic sectors, so we wanted to know which countries are most vulnerable to the impact of invasion from these species.

We assumed that a country’s GDP represents how much money a country has available to either prevent species from arriving, or to manage them if they do arrive and establish. By dividing the potential impact of invasive species by a country’s GDP, we could get an estimate of its vulnerability.

The larger the impact of invasive species and the smaller the GDP, the more vulnerable a country is. Sub-Saharan countries such as Malawi, Burundi, Guinea, Mozambique, and Ethiopia were all ranked in the top ten for vulnerability.

This is mainly because these countries tend to have narrow economies that are heavily dependent on agriculture and so are more vulnerable than developed countries with more diverse economies, where agriculture is only one of a large number of industries that contribute to the overall wealth of the country.

As trade volumes continue to increase and more trade connections are made between countries it could be argued that the pressures from invasive species will only intensify. The spread of invasive species is a shared responsibility at the global level, and those countries most vulnerable to these invasions will need the most help in combating them.

Dean Paini has received funding from the CRC for Plant Biosecurity.

Cassandra Leigh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Survey shows a majority of Chinese tourists and about a third of US and UK visitors will travel to somewhere other than Australia

If the bleaching continues on the Great Barrier Reef, tourists say they will pack their bags and go elsewhere, taking with them an estimated $1bn a year and costing 10,000 jobs in regional Queensland, according to a new poll.

The majority of Chinese tourists, and about a third of UK and US tourists, said if severe bleaching continues, and “some of the reef dies completely,” they would be more likely to visit somewhere other than Australia, according to the online polling of more than 4,000 people commissioned by the Australia Institute

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Experts in Malawi will move 500 elephants 185 miles across the country to a sanctuary that will act as a ‘reservoir’

Wildlife experts in Malawi will next month start moving up to 500 elephants to a sanctuary that they hope could eventually serve as a reservoir to restore some elephant populations in other parts of Africa where the threatened species has been heavily poached.

The massive relocation, slated for completion next year, will involve darting the elephants from a helicopter, hoisting the slumbering animals by crane and loading them in crates on to trucks for a ride of about 185 miles (300km) to Malawi’s Nkhotakota wildlife reserve.

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Today is a once in a lifetime event: the longest day of the year, first day of summer and a full ‘strawberry’ moon – which means it’s time to go outside

• Strawberry moon solstice: last seen during 1967’s summer of love

As if today being Monday wasn’t bad enough, it’s also the longest day of the year. Now, if you’ve spent the last nine months shuttling between your office and your apartment glimpsing only a smidgeon of sunshine in between, all this extra daytime can come as a shock. Suddenly it’s not quite so acceptable to spend your free time in a dark room watching Netflix ignoring everyone except the delivery person. You have to go outside and do outside stuff. You have to, you know, have fun in the sun.

So, how should you use today’s extra daylight? If you’re a Druid, Pagan, Wiccan or Swede you’ve probably got your plans sorted and have a nice maypole or prehistoric monument to convene around. If you don’t have any rituals planned, however, here are a few ways you can use the longest day of the year to its full advantage.

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Global Witness says at least 185 activists were killed and anti-mining activities were the most deadly – with 42 deaths related to protests

At least 185 environmental activists were killed last year, the highest annual death toll on record and close to a 60% increase on the previous year, according to a UK-based watchdog.

Global Witness documented lethal attacks across 16 countries. Brazil was worst hit with 50 deaths, many of them killings of campaigners who were trying to combat illegal logging in the Amazon. The Philippines was second with 33.

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Night-time vision evolved millions of years ago in early mammals, a study suggests.

Report says figures could rise to nearly one-third with power sector reforms, making it the world wind energy leader by a large margin

China is on track to generate more than a quarter of its electricity from wind power by 2030, and the figure could rise to nearly a third with power sector reforms, a new study has found.

Within 14 years, more new generating capacity – mostly clean energy – will come online in China than currently exists in the whole of the US, further cementing the country’s image as a burgeoning green giant.

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Andy Green says a new source of funding means preparations to run the Bloodhound 1,000mph supersonic car in South Africa next year can resume.

The 93 petaflop Sunway TaihuLight in China has topped a newly published list of supercomputers.

A recent aerial survey has revealed that the numbers of all three saiga populations in Kazakhstan are going up, Mongabay reports

Last year, catastrophe hit saiga antelopes in Kazakhstan. About 200,000 of these critically endangered antelopes died in Betpak-Dala in May, deeply worrying conservationists. The deaths, scientists eventually found, were most likely caused by bacterial infection.

But there may be hope for these severely threatened migratory mammals.

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Global Witness figures show last year was the deadliest for environment and land campaigners since 2002

Three environmental activists were killed per week last year, murdered defending land rights and the environment from mining, dam projects and logging, a campaign group said on Monday.

In 16 countries surveyed in a report by Global Witness, 185 activists were killed, making 2015 the deadliest year for environment and land campaigners since 2002.

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