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Highly unusual behaviour in the upper atmosphere indicates that northern Europe may be in for another nasty winter

What kinds of weather do the coming months hold? Highly unusual behaviour in the upper atmosphere indicates that northern Europe may be in for another stormy winter. The first sign appeared back in February, when scientists spotted something odd in high-level balloon wind measurements.

Way up in the stratosphere – 16-50km above the equator – the balloon measurements revealed a narrow band of westerly winds, tucked inside the freshly formed equatorial easterly winds.

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It is September 27, 1956. At a dusty site called One Tree, in the northern reaches of the 3,200-square-kilometre Maralinga atomic weapons test range in outback South Australia, the winds have finally died down and the countdown begins.

The site has been on alert for more than two weeks, but the weather has constantly interfered with the plans. Finally, Professor Sir William Penney, head of the UK Atomic Weapons Research Establishment, can wait no longer. He gives the final, definitive go-ahead.

The military personnel, scientists, technicians and media – as well as the “indoctrinee force” of officers positioned close to the blast zone and required to report back on the effects of an atomic bomb up close – tense in readiness.

And so, at 5pm, Operation Buffalo begins. The 15-kilotonne atomic device, the same explosive strength as the weapon dropped on Hiroshima 11 years earlier (although totally different in design), is bolted to a 30-metre steel tower. The device is a plutonium warhead that will test Britain’s “Red Beard” tactical nuclear weapon.

The count reaches its finale – three… two… one… FLASH! – and all present turn their backs. When given the order to turn back again, they see an awesome, rising fireball. Then Maralinga’s first mushroom cloud begins to bloom over the plain – by October the following year, there will have been six more.

RAF and RAAF aircraft prepare to fly through the billowing cloud to gather samples. The cloud rises much higher than predicted and, despite the delay, the winds are still unsuitable for atmospheric nuclear testing. The radioactive cloud heads due east, towards populated areas on Australia’s east coast.

Power struggle

So began the most damaging chapter in the history of British nuclear weapons testing in Australia. The UK had carried out atomic tests in 1952 and 1956 at the Monte Bello Islands off Western Australia, and in 1953 at Emu Field north of Maralinga.

British nuclear bomb test sites in Australia. Jakew/Wikipedia, CC BY-SA

The British had requested and were granted a huge chunk of South Australia to create a “permanent” atomic weapons test site, after finding the conditions at Monte Bello and Emu Field too remote and unworkable. Australia’s then prime minister, Robert Menzies, was all too happy to oblige. Back in September 1950 in a phone call with his British counterpart, Clement Attlee, he had said yes to nuclear testing without even referring the issue to his cabinet.

Menzies was not entirely blinded by his well-known anglophilia; he also saw advantages for Australia in granting Britain’s request. He was seeking assurances of security in a post-Hiroshima, nuclear-armed world and he believed that working with the UK would provide guarantees of at least British protection, and probably US protection as well.

He was also exploring ways to power civilian Australia with atomic energy and – whisper it – even to buy an atomic bomb with an Australian flag on it (for more background, see here). While Australia had not been involved in developing either atomic weaponry or nuclear energy, she wanted in now. Menzies’ ambitions were such that he authorised offering more to the British than they requested.

While Australia was preparing to sign the Maralinga agreement, the supply minister, Howard Beale, wrote in a top-secret 1954 cabinet document:

Although [the] UK had intimated that she was prepared to meet the full costs, Australia proposed that the principles of apportioning the expenses of the trial should be agreed whereby the cost of Australian personnel engaged on the preparation of the site, and of materials and equipment which could be recovered after the tests, should fall to Australia’s account.

Beale said that he did not want Australia to be a mere “hewer of wood and drawer of water” for the British, but a respected partner of high (though maybe not equal) standing with access to the knowledge generated from the atomic tests.

That hope was forlorn and unrealised. Australia duly hewed the wood and drew the water at Maralinga, and stood by while Britain’s nuclear and military elite trashed a swathe of Australia’s landscape and then, in the mid-1960s, promptly left. Britain carried out a total of 12 major weapons tests in Australia: three at Monte Bello, two at Emu Field and seven at Maralinga. The British also conducted hundreds of so-called “minor trials”, including the highly damaging Vixen B radiological experiments, which scattered long-lived plutonium over a large area at Maralinga.

The British carried out two clean-up operations – Operation Hercules in 1964 and Operation Brumby in 1967 – both of which made the contamination problems worse.

Legacy of damage

The damage done to Indigenous people in the vicinity of all three test sites is immeasurable and included displacement, injury and death. Service personnel from several countries, but particularly Britain and Australia, also suffered – not least because of their continuing fight for the slightest recognition of the dangers they faced. Many of the injuries and deaths allegedly caused by the British tests have not been formally linked to the operation, a source of ongoing distress for those involved.

The cost of the clean-up exceeded A$100 million in the late 1990s. Britain paid less than half, and only after protracted pressure and negotiations.

Decades later, we still don’t know the full extent of the effects suffered by service personnel and local communities. Despite years of legal wrangling, those communities' suffering has never been properly recognised or compensated.

The Maralinga landscape today. Wayne England/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

Why did Australia allow it to happen? The answer is that Britain asserted its nuclear colonialism just as an anglophile prime minister took power in Australia, and after the United States made nuclear weapons research collaboration with other nations illegal, barring further joint weapons development with the UK.

Menzies’ political agenda emphasised national security and tapped into Cold War fears. While acting in what he thought were Australia’s interests (as well as allegiance to the mother country), he displayed a reckless disregard for the risks of letting loose huge quantities of radioactive material without adequate safeguards.

Six decades later, those atomic weapons tests still cast their shadow across Australia’s landscape. They stand as testament to the dangers of government decisions made without close scrutiny, and as a reminder – at a time when leaders are once again preoccupied with international security – not to let it happen again.

Liz Tynan will launch her book, Atomic Thunder: The Maralinga Story, on September 27. A travelling art exhibition, Black Mist Burnt Country, featuring art from the Maralinga lands, will open on the same day.

Liz Tynan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Time spent weeding, potting and pruning can be as good for the gardener as it is for the garden. Image from www.shutterstock.com

As the weather warms and days lengthen, your attention may be turning to that forgotten patch of your backyard. This week we’ve asked our experts to share the science behind gardening. So grab a trowel and your green thumbs, and dig in.

“That’s all very well put,” says Candide, in the final line of Voltaire’s novel of the same name, “but we must go and work our garden.”

I studied this text at high school before I became a gardener and professional horticulturist. We were taught that Candide’s gardening imperative was metaphorical not literal; a command for finding an authentic vocation, not a call to take up trowels and secateurs.

In fact, Voltaire himself really believed that active gardening was a great way to stay sane, healthy and free from stress. That was 300 years ago.

As it turns out, the science suggests he was right.

The science of therapeutic horticulture

Gardens and landscapes have long been designed as sanctuaries and retreats from the stresses of life – from great urban green spaces such as Central Park in New York to the humblest suburban backyard. But beyond the passive enjoyment of a garden or of being in nature more generally, researchers have also studied the role of actively caring for plants as a therapeutic and educational tool.

“Therapeutic horticulture” and “horticultural therapy” have become recognised treatments for stress and depression, which have served as a healing aid in settings ranging from prisons and mental health treatment facilities to schools and hospitals.

Gardening and school

Studies of school gardening programs – which usually centre on growing food – show that students who have worked on designing, creating and maintaining gardens develop more positive attitudes about health, nutrition and the consumption of vegetables.

They also score better on science achievement, have better attitudes about school, and improve their interpersonal skills and classroom behaviour.

Research on students confirms that gardening leads to higher levels of self-esteem and responsibility. Research suggests that incorporating gardening into a school setting can boost group cohesiveness.

Gardening and mental health

Tailored gardening programs have been shown to increase quality of life for people with chronic mental illnesses, including anxiety and depression.

Another study on the use of therapeutic horticulture for patients with clinical depression sought to understand why gardening programs were effective in lessening patient experience of depression. They found that structured gardening activities gave patients existential purpose. Put simply, it gave their lives meaning.

In jails and corrective programs, horticultural therapy programs have been used to give inmates positive, purposeful activities that lessen aggression and hostility during and after incarceration.

In one detailed study from a San Francisco program, involvement in therapeutic horticulture was particularly effective in improving psychosocial functioning across prison populations (although the benefits were not necessarily sustained after release.)

Gardening has been shown to help improve the lives of military veterans and homeless people. Various therapeutic horticulture programs have been used to help people with learning difficulties, asylum seekers, refugees and victims of torture.

Gardening and older people

As populations in the West age, hands-on gardening programs have been used for older people in nursing homes and related facilities.

A systematic review of 22 studies of gardening programs for older adults found that gardening was a powerful health-promoting activity across diverse populations.

One study sought to understand if patients recovering from heart attack might benefit from a horticultural therapy program. It concluded:

[Our] findings indicate that horticultural therapy improves mood state, suggesting that it may be a useful tool in reducing stress. Therefore, to the extent that stress contributes to coronary heart disease, these findings support the role of horticultural therapy as an effective component of cardiac rehabilitation.

Horticulturist and nurse Steven Wells talks about his work at Austin Health.

While the literature on the positive effects of gardening, reflecting both qualitative and quantitative studies, is large, most of these studies are from overseas.

Investment in horticultural therapy programs in Australia is piecemeal. That said, there are some standout success stories such as the Stephanie Alexander Kitchen Garden Foundation and the work of nurse Steven Wells at the Royal Talbot Rehabilitation Centre and beyond.

Finally, without professionally trained horticulturists none of these programs – in Australia or internationally – can take place.

Chris Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

South Australia is leading the way on wind energy - but that's posing problems for the electricity sector. Wind image from www.shutterstock.com

Australia’s energy markets got a big shock in July this year, when wholesale electricity prices spiked in South Australia, alarming the state government and major industrial customers. Commentators rushed to find the immediate culprits. But the real issues lie elsewhere.

As shown by the Grattan Institute’s latest report the market worked. Having soared, prices fell back to more manageable levels. The lights stayed on.

Yet South Australia’s power shock exposed a looming problem in Australia’s electricity system – not high prices or the threat of blackouts, but an emerging conflict between Australia’s climate change policies and the demands of our energy market.

A perfect storm

On the evening of July 7, the wind wasn’t blowing, the sun wasn’t shining, and the electricity connector that supplies power from Victoria was down for maintenance. This meant gas set the wholesale price, and gas is expensive these days, especially during a cold winter. At 7.30pm wholesale spot prices soared close to A$9,000 per megawatt hour. For the whole month they averaged A$230 a megawatt hour. They were closer to A$65 in the rest of the country.

Australia has committed to a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030. Despite this well known and significant target, the national debate on climate change has been so toxic and so destructive that almost no policy remains to reduce emissions from the power sector in line with that target.

By 2014 the much maligned renewable energy target (RET), a Howard government industry policy to support renewable energy, remained as the only policy with any real impact on the sector’s emissions.

Wind power has been the winning technology from the RET, and South Australia has been the winning state. Wind now supplies 40% of electricity in South Australia due to highly favourable local conditions. Because wind has no fuel costs it suppressed wholesale prices in the state and forced the shutdown of all coal plants and the mothballing of some gas plants. But wind is intermittent – it generates power only when it is blowing, and the night of July 7 it barely was.

A report by the Australian Energy Market Operator noted that the market did deliver on reliability and security of supply in July. It reviewed the behaviour of market participants and concluded there were “no departures from normal market rules and procedures”.

The events of July do not expose an immediate crisis, but they have exposed the potential consequences of a disconnection between climate change policy and energy markets. If it is not addressed, the goals of reliable, affordable and sustainable energy may not be achieved.

The bigger problem

Climate change policy should work with and not outside the electricity market. With a fixed generation target of 33,000 gigawatt hours of renewable electricity by 2020 and a market for renewable energy credits outside the wholesale spot market under the RET, the conditions for problems were established some time ago.

The specific issues that arose from the design of the RET would have been far less problematic if one of the attempts over the last ten years to implement a national climate policy had been successful. A rising carbon price would have steadily changed the relative competitiveness of high and low emissions electricity sources and the RET would have quietly faded.

The first lesson for governments is that we need to establish a credible, scalable and predictable national climate change policy to have a chance of achieving emissions reduction targets without compromising power reliability or security of supply. A national emissions trading scheme would be best, but pragmatism and urgency mean we need to consider second best.

While such an outcome is the first priority, it will not provide all the answers. The rapid introduction of a very large proportion of new intermittent electricity supply creates problems that were not foreseen when traditional generation from coal and gas supplied the bulk of Australia’s power needs.

All of the wind farms in one state could be offline at the same time – a far less likely event with traditional generation. The problem can be solved by investment in storage and in flexible responses such as gas and other fast-start generators. Commercial deals with consumers paid to reduce demand could also contribute.

Lower average prices combined with infrequent big price spikes are not an obvious way to encourage long-term investors. The market may find solutions with new forms of contracts for flexibility or the market operator could introduce new structures or regulations to complement the existing wholesale spot market.

Much uncertainty exists, no easy fixes are in sight and the consequences of failure are high. Getting it right will provide clear signals for new investment or for withdrawal of coal plants as flagged by speculation over the future of the Hazelwood power station in Victoria.

Josh Frydenberg, as the new minister for the environment and energy, and his fellow ministers on the COAG Energy Council would be unwise to waste a near crisis.

Tony Wood owns shares in energy and resources companies via his superannuation fund

The Hazelwood power station has been named Australia's 'dirtiest' for its carbon emissions. Takver/Flickr, CC BY-SA

Over the weekend Fairfax media reported that the Hazelwood power station in the Latrobe valley could close as early as next April. Senior management at Engie, the French company which is the majority owner of the brown coal-fired power plant, has emphasised that no decision has been made yet.

As was the case with the Northern Power station in South Australia, the imperative to close Hazelwood has evidently come from the company’s board.

Earlier this year, Engie, the majority owner of Hazelwood, flagged it was considering closing or selling the plant. But at this point, no timeline for closure was suggested. Now it seems that Engie is planning to make a decision on the future of the plant at its board meeting in October.

There are many factors that would be contributing to their deliberation. These include, but are not limited to, the plant’s age, changes in the electricity market, and an erosion of the social license to operate, courtesy of long running campaigns from environment groups such as Environment Victoria.

Commissioned in the late 1960s, the power plant is almost 50 years old and one of the oldest coal-fired power plants still operating in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Smaller coal plants of similar age have closed in recent years, including Playford B in South Australia and Anglesea and the Morwell Energy Bricks Complex in Victoria.

Increasing amounts of renewable energy, and expected future increases would also be weighing on decisions to close. As has been well documented, there has been be an oversupply of electricity capacity in recent years. This has the effect of lowering wholesale prices and is exacerbated by increasing renewable energy generation.

What is interesting about both the potential closure of Hazelwood and the closure of Northern and Playford in South Australia, is that these have occurred in the absence of schemes like the (failed) “contracts for closure” and ANU professor Frank Jotzo’s proposal for brown coal exit.

On the one hand, this is good news for taxpayers and consumers. To date, the companies that own these assets are not being paid to close. On the other hand, the decision is made at the company level, without consideration for local workers and communities.

What would replace Hazelwood’s output?

Hazelwood has historically generated about 11-12 terrawatt-hours of energy each year. This is approximately 20% of all energy generated in Victoria, and 5% of energy generated in the National Electricity Market.

Like other brown coal power stations, Hazelwood produces cheap electricity (if we ignore carbon emissions). As a result, these power stations are used a lot (on average at more than 80% of their total capacity) and Victoria is a significant net exporter of energy.

Victoria exported 8.5 terrawatt-hours of electricity in 2014-2015 and 7 terrawatt-hours in 2015-2016, representing about 70% of Hazelwood’s output. A large share of this (approximately 5 terrawatt-hours) flowed to New South Wales.

If Hazelwood closes, the flows might substantially change. Generation in New South Wales could be expected to increase.

New South Wales is dominated by black coal generation, which is slightly more expensive that brown coal, and currently is used relatively infrequently. Over the past five years, NSW’s black coal power stations have operated at approximately 50% of their total capacity on average.

The idle black coal capacity in NSW alone could more that replace the energy output of Hazelwood.

But coal and other fossil fuel generation is only part of the story. By 2020, a large amount of renewable generation will have to be built to fulfil the obligations of the national Renewable Energy Target.

And the Victorian government’s Renewable Auction Scheme will see 5,400 megawatts of new renewable energy built in Victoria alone by 2025. This 5,400 megawatts will produce approximately 30% more energy than is currently delivered by Hazelwood.

What about emissions?

Hazelwood is also the most emissions-intensive coal generator still in operation in Australia. In fact it was previously identified by WWF as the most emissions-intensive generator in the major industrialised nations.

Based on current emission intensity estimates, Hazelwood produces around 15 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions per year, approximately 2.8% of Australia’s emissions.

However, this does not represent the overall emissions impact in the short term. In a high emissions scenario, the output of Hazelwood might be entirely replaced by NSW black coal (assuming the remaining brown coal power stations cannot dramatically increase their output). In this case, the total emissions from the electricity sector might reduce by only 5.5 million each year.

So, while we don’t know whether Hazelwood will close yet, we do know that Australia could easily replace the energy, and it could make a substantial difference to our carbon emissions.

The Melbourne Energy Institute, the Grattan Institute, the EU Centre on Shared Complex Challenges, GEE-21, the Australian-German Climate and Energy College, and ATSE are holding a symposium on Australia’s Electricity System: Transition to 2030 this week.

Dylan McConnell has received funding from the AEMC's Consumer Advocacy Panel and Energy Consumers Australia.

Elephant populations in Africa have declined by around 111,000 over the past ten years according to a new study presented at the Cites meeting in South Africa.

The world's largest radio telescope has received its first signals from space and is now entering an intensive testing phase.

Seafood eco-labels are trustworthy – up to a point

My favourite sideswipe at those who question the ethical provenance of all they consume is provided by the TV series Portlandia. Super-earnest couple Nance and Peter demand the life story of the chicken on a restaurant menu. Eventually they head for the farm to find out for themselves.

I’m more laidback about fish, because I trust seafood eco-labels. Policing some 3m vessels across the globe is not easy but we have some accountability, including GlobalGAP, the label for certified aquaculture, and the blue tick (awarded by the Marine Stewardship Council to 281 sustainable fisheries across the world).

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As the population grows over the next 20 years half the world will be left malnourished, an independent panel of experts on food and agriculture warns.

The Australian Government is consulting on the design of mandatory reporting. The consultation is open until 28 October 2016.

The Australian Government is consulting on the design of mandatory reporting. The consultation is open until 28 October 2016.

President Barack Obama has created the first underwater national monument off the US east coast, protecting a vast ecosystem of canyons and extinct volcanoes. It is home to thousands of rare species, but is also a source of controversy.

A hedgehog officer explains how to help hedgehogs in your garden

The number of African greys has plunged to 1% of past levels, conservationists warn. But it is just one of a host of animals and plants on the continent whose future will be debated by more than 180 nations in Johannesburg this week

Perry, a five-year-old African grey parrot, is for sale on a well-known pet trade website for £750. She looks in good condition with her large black bill, red tail and white mask and her owner says she can whistle the tune of Flower of Scotland, does a passable imitation of R2D2 and is “very clever and funny”.

What Perry’s Scottish owner does not tell prospective buyers is that the African grey is close to extinction in the wild largely because of the international pet trade.

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When travelling in New Zealand, Matt Lindley, a London-based marketeer, started thinking about the flightless moa bird, which was endemic there until it became extinct around 1300AD. This gave him the idea for the series Unknown Tourism, which commemorates lost wildlife with vintage-style posters inspired by 30s to 50s air travel ads. The project, commissioned by the travel site Expedia UK and illustrated by Jon Barmby, includes the dodo as well as bringing to light the unfamiliar galliwasp. “Hopefully these posters are a fun, visual way to convey that information to a lot of people,” says Lindley. “We felt many of these animals weren’t getting the attention they deserved, so this was a way of paying tribute to them.”

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A new study by scientists in Maine found that if global warming trends continue, lobsters will struggle to survive by the year 2100

Baby lobsters might not be able to survive in the ocean’s waters if the ocean continues to warm at the expected rate.

That is the key finding of a study performed by scientists in Maine, the state most closely associated with lobster. The scientists, who are affiliated with the University of Maine Darling Marine Center and Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, said the discovery could mean bad news for the future of one of America’s most beloved seafood treats, as well as the industry lobsters support.

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The world's biggest conference on species protection has opened in South Africa amid differing views on the survival of elephants.

We may never know the human fallout from the British nuclear tests at Maralinga but many attribute a wave of stillbirths and miscarriages to the towering radioactive clouds that rained poison across the vast area known as the prohibited zone.

Strathnairn, Highlands A squirrel at one of the wooden boxes suddenly darted along the branch and started gnawing away at the antler

For our first 29 years in this house we didn’t see a single red squirrel in the garden, but since May this year they have become daily visitors. The wooden feeder boxes on the apple trees have been a big attraction, and watching the squirrels push up the lids with their heads and reach in to get the peanuts can often be amusing.

However, some of them persist in visiting a wire feeder that was put out for birds, despite the difficulty of getting the nuts out. When the squirrels are at the feeders, I have noticed that a couple of mallard immediately head over to the bottom of the tree, to pick up any nuts or fragments they might let drop.

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Endangered plant named ‘morphy’ starts to smell like a burning cigar at Ivy League college but far worse whiffs lie in store at the weekend

A giant endangered “corpse flower” that got its nickname from its putrid smell started to bloom on Friday for the first time since 2011.

Related: 'Worse than one thousand pukes': fetid corpse flower overwhelms New York

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