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Higher sea temperatures have led to the worst bleaching event on record, new study finds, with coral predicted to take up to 15 years to recover

A new study has found that higher water temperatures have ravaged the Great Barrier Reef, causing the worst coral bleaching recorded by scientists.

In the worst-affected area, 67% of a 700km swath in the north of the reef lost its shallow-water corals over the past eight to nine months, the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies based at James Cook University study found.

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Two-thirds of the corals in the northern part of the Great Barrier Reef have died on in the reef’s worst-ever bleaching event, according to our latest underwater surveys.

On some reefs in the north, nearly all the corals have died. However the impact of bleaching eases as we move south, and reefs in the central and southern regions (around Cairns and Townsville and southwards) were much less affected, and are now recovering.

In 2015 and 2016, the hottest years on record, we have witnessed at first hand the threat posed by human-caused climate change to the world’s coral reefs.

Heat stress from record high summer temperatures damages the microscopic algae (zooxanthellae) that live in the tissues of corals, turning them white.

After they bleach, these stressed corals either slowly regain their zooxanthellae and colour as temperatures cool off, or else they die.

The Great Barrier Reef bleached severely for the first time in 1998, then in 2002, and now again in 2016. This year’s event was more extreme than the two previous mass bleachings.

Surveying the damage

We undertook extensive underwater surveys at the peak of bleaching in March and April, and again at the same sites in October and November. In the northern third of the Great Barrier Reef, we recorded an average (median) loss of 67% of coral cover on a large sample of 60 reefs.

The dieback of corals due to bleaching in just 8-9 months is the largest loss ever recorded for the Great Barrier Reef.

To put these losses in context, over the 27 years from 1985 to 2012, scientists from the Australian Institute of Marine Science measured the gradual loss of 51% of corals on the central and southern regions of the Great Barrier Reef.

They reported no change over this extended period in the amount of corals in the remote, northern region. Unfortunately, most of the losses in 2016 have occurred in this northern, most pristine part of the Great Barrier Reef.

ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies Bright spots

The bleaching, and subsequent loss of corals, is very patchy. Our map shows clearly that coral death varies enormously from north to south along the 2,300km length of the Reef.

The southern third of the Reef did not experience severe heat stress in February and March. Consequently, only minor bleaching occurred, and we found no significant mortality in the south since then.

In the central section of the Reef, we measured widespread but moderate bleaching, which was comparably severe to the 1998 and 2002 events. On average, only 6% of coral cover was lost in the central region in 2016.

The remaining corals have now regained their vibrant colour. Many central reefs are in good condition, and they continue to recover from Severe Tropical Cyclones Hamish (in 2009) and Yasi (2011).

In the eastern Torres Strait and outermost ribbon reefs in the northernmost part of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, we found a large swathe of reefs that escaped the most severe bleaching and mortality, compared to elsewhere in the north. Nonetheless, 26% of the shallow-water corals died.

We suspect that these reefs were partially protected from heat stress by strong currents and upwelling of cooler water across the edge of the continental shelf that slopes steeply into the Coral Sea.

For visitors, these surveys show there are still many reefs throughout the Marine Park that have abundant living coral, particularly in popular tourism locations in the central and southern regions, such as the Whitsundays and Cairns.

Darkspots

The northern third of the Great Barrier Reef, extending 700km from Port Douglas to Papua New Guinea, experienced the most severe bleaching and subsequent loss of corals.

On 25% of the worst affected reefs (the top quartile), losses of corals ranged from 83-99%. When mortality is this high, it affects even tougher species that normally survive bleaching.

However, even in this region, there are some silver linings. Bleaching and mortality decline with depth, and some sites and reefs had much better than average survival. A few corals are still bleached or mottled, particularly in the north, but the vast majority of survivors have regained their colour.

What will happen next?

The reef science and management community will continue to gather data on the bleaching event as it slowly unfolds. The initial stage focused on mapping the footprint of the event, and now we are analysing how many bleached corals died or recovered over the past 8-9 months.

Over the coming months and for the next year or two we expect to see longer-term impacts on northern corals, including higher levels of disease, slower growth rates and lower rates of reproduction. The process of recovery in the north – the replacement of dead corals by new ones – will be slow, at least 10-15 years, as long as local conditions such as water quality remain conducive to recovery.

As global temperatures continue to climb, time will tell how much recovery in the north is possible before a fourth mass bleaching event occurs.

This article was co-authored by David Wachenfeld, Director for Reef Recovery at the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.

Terry Hughes receives competitive research funding from the Australian Research Council

Britta Schaffelke works for the Australian Institute of Marine Science, a publicly funded research organization that receives funding from the Australian Government, foundations, State Government Departments and private industry.

James Kerry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

The short answer is no (Is this a war on trees? Notebook, 22 November). As a several decades-long member of the Woodland Trust, I value mature trees and the recreation of ancient woodland, but in respect to Sheffield’s tree-culling, Patrick Barkham has given only a one-sided story, that of the “save all trees” fanatics who forced the council’s hand. In our leafy suburbs many of the trees are over 100 years old and, yes, they do add many benefits to the environment. However, many are huge, forest varieties, unsuitable for the streets in which they were planted. Thus some obstruct pavements and roadways, and their roots have caused ground upheavals of 20cm or more. Some are also reaching old age, with a consequent risk of falling branches.

Looking at the wider picture, it thus makes very good sense to cut these down and replant with more suitable varieties as part of the road and pavement renewal scheme, to avoid later more expensive replacement after they have damaged the new roads and pavements. I will be sad to see them go – it’s only a selected few – but very glad to get rid of the potholed roads and lumpy pavements with their tripping hazards. And my children will benefit from the new trees as they mature, as part of a planned tree-management scheme.
Michael Miller
Sheffield

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Alongside her husband, Doug, Kris McDivitt Tompkins bought up vast swathes of Patagonia to save it from developers. Now, a year after Doug’s sudden death, she explains how their shared vision is close to reality

She was young, spirited and rich. It was the 1970s and Kris McDivitt seemed to come straight from California central casting; the glamorous ski-racing daughter of an oil-industry man who made her fortune as the first CEO of what was to become the billion-dollar outdoor clothing company Patagonia.

And then in 1993, aged 43, Kris McDivitt unexpectedly fell in love with Doug Tompkins, the adventure-junkie rock-climber and deep green environmentalist who had co-founded not one but two giant outdoor-clothing companies, North Face and Esprit.

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Freshwater fish are out of sight and out of mind for most of the British public. And so are the dedicated band of fishery scientists who look after a resource that indicates the health of our rivers and lakes, and supports angling. Such an individual was my friend John Gregory, who has died aged 67, after a lifelong career in fisheries management.

John was born in Sutton-in-Ashfield, Nottinghamshire. His father, Tom, was an engineer at Rolls-Royce in Derby and his mother, Jenny, worked in the local hospital. After graduating in biological sciences from the University of East Anglia, and getting married to Lynden Stratten in 1971, John spent two years as a fisheries officer in the Solomon Islands.

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Leaked documents reveal EU pledge to carry out tests deleted from draft as governments come under pressure from carmakers

Plans for independent checks of how much pollution new cars emit are being killed off by EU member states, according to leaked documents seen by the Guardian.

After the Dieselgate scandal, the European commission proposed empowering its respected science wing, the Joint Research Centre, to inspect vehicles separately from national authorities, which are paid by the car manufacturers they regulate.

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Scientists might have found the root cause of vision problems that affect some astronauts.

Japan estimates the cost of dealing with the Fukushima nuclear disaster has doubled, reports say.

This year saw the worst-ever destruction of coral on the Great Barrier Reef, a new study finds.

Climate News Network: Three main dams supplying water to La Paz and El Alto are no longer fed by Andean glaciers and have nearly run dry

The government of Bolivia, a landlocked country in the heart of South America, has been forced to declare a state of emergency as it faces its worst drought for at least 25 years.

Much of the water supply to La Paz, the highest capital city in the world, and the neighbouring El Alto, Bolivia’s second largest city, comes from the glaciers in the surrounding Andean mountains.

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Canada has made significant progress in its climate policy, but has further yet to go

The Paris Agreement was ratified globally in November. This is unprecedented amongst international agreements for how quickly it has come into force. The Agreement allows each country to decide how it will tackle climate change, and requires as of 2020, regular reporting on progress. Countries of the world have officially embarked in a global race to implement ambitious climate policies that contribute to reducing green-house gas emissions at the planetary-scale.

This process is not unlike the Olympics games where countries get together to compare their strengths and performance. If Canada wants to be a medalist in 2020, domestic climate policies must rapidly be adopted to accelerate the low carbon transition. In this context, Sustainable Canada Dialogues (SCD) – a network of 60+ scholars from across Canada – produced Rating Canada’s Climate Policy; a progress report on Canada’s climate actions over the past year. We analysed climate decisions made in Ottawa in 2016 in relationship to the 10 policy orientations that we proposed previously in our position paper entitled Acting on Climate Change: Solutions from Canadian Scholars.

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Carbon Tracker says many plants running at overcapacity but China reluctant to wean itself off coal, fearing unemployment and unrest

China could waste as much as half a trillion dollars on unnecessary new coal-fired power stations, a climate campaign group has said, arguing that the world’s top carbon polluter already has more than enough such facilities.

China’s rise to become the world’s second largest economy was largely powered by cheap, dirty coal. But as growth slows, the country has had a difficult time weaning itself off the fuel, even as the pollution it causes wreaks havoc on the environment and public health.

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Coal-fired power plants should be closed in orderly fashion to ensure energy supply is not disrupted

A Senate report has recommended that Australia should move completely away from coal-generated electricity within 10 years, citing economic factors as the primary drivers.

It comes about a month after the unplanned closure of Hazelwood, Australia’s dirtiest coal station, and before the expected unplanned closure of several others around the country.

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Stamford, Lincolnshire Rock you grasp, fighting its cold indifference. Trees you take hold of, hoist yourself into, embrace, balance on

At the end of last winter I noticed this tree: a slim, high horse chestnut on the edge of my town. In summer its leaves gave it an hourglass shape. September ignited it. October, I showed my daughter its spiky conker capsules and the flawless autumn-shine of what was inside. In November’s first weeks I saw more of the sky through its branches each visit, its presence emaciating, the clarity of its skeleton crisping with every wintering day.

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Miniature monkeys at Symbio wildlife park in Helensburgh, south of Sydney. Three pygmy marmosets, including one that was only four weeks old, were stolen late last week. Two Sydney brothers have pleaded guilty to transporting and intending to sell them. Two of the three monkeys have been recovered but a third, 10-year-old Gomez, is still missing

• Sydney brothers plead guilty over theft of rare miniature monkeys

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Ta’u island in American Samoa will rely on solar panels and Tesla batteries as it does away with diesel generators

A remote tropical island has catapulted itself headlong into the future by ditching diesel and powering all homes and businesses with the scorching South Pacific sun.

Using more than 5,000 solar panels and 60 Tesla power packs the tiny island of Ta’u in American Samoa is now entirely self-sufficient for its electricity supply – though the process of converting has been tough and pitted with delays.

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Virginia coalminers in the industry's 1970s heyday. Jack Corn/EPA/US Natl Archives & Records Administration/Wikimedia Commons

On the night Donald Trump won the US election, one of the many jubilant supporters featured in the media coverage was 67-year-old Doug Ratliff of Richlands, Virginia. An owner of struggling shopping malls in a region hit hard by coal closures, he said Trump “gives people hope” that these ailing industries can be brought back to health.

But the reality is that Trump won’t be able to do it – any more than he can stop the rising seas flowing over vulnerable coastal areas of Florida, one of the states that helped to elect him president.

King Canute Trump and his aides can deny the veracity of climate change or threaten to shut down NASA’s climate programs all they want, but they are largely powerless to stop the global processes now under way to remove fossil fuels from global and local economies.

As the graph below shows, global economic growth has decoupled from growth in greenhouse gas emissions.

European nations such as Denmark, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK are now showing “absolute decoupling” – that is, their fossil fuel use is declining while their economies continue to expand. The UK – the birthplace of coal-fired power two centuries ago – will switch off its last coal power station in 2040.

America and Australia have been slower to decouple, but both have shown absolute declines in coal use since 2005 and 2009 respectively, while still growing economically. China is rapidly decoupling (in absolute terms with coal) while India is relatively decoupling.

The reality is that the world has learned to grow economically in the 21st century without needing fossil fuels to do it. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has assessed the trends in prices for different fuels and predicts that coal and gas-based power will go from 57% in 2015 to 31% in 2040, while renewables will go from 11% to 56% of power. This is without subsidies.

Already the world’s financiers have decided that renewables are a better deal than fossil fuels, which are riven with political uncertainties, volatility and declining competitiveness. BNEF’s analysis shows that new investment in renewables passed fossil-fuel-based power in 2005 and is now running at twice the rate.

Is this being driven by politicians, perhaps as a result of the Paris Agreement signed by nearly every government in the world, which took effect earlier this month?

Probably not. Apart from a few long-term goals, you could not say that governments have controlled this market in the past decade. What is actually happening is that they are now recognising the growing market for clean energy and in most cases simply trying to help it along where they can.

Rooftop solar, in particular, has become a dramatic market success story, with Australia leading the world in its recent growth. In Perth, for example, the resources boom led huge numbers of households to invest in solar photovoltaics, which are now available at roughly half the cost compared with the United States. As a result, 25% of houses in Perth have solar panels – a combined total of 550 megawatts, which effectively makes them the biggest power station in Western Australia.

This was not a government plan; it was ordinary householders seeing a good deal provided by smart new Australian businesses. WA Energy Minister Mike Nahan was initially somewhat sceptical, but as a good market economist he now says that the government just needs to get out of the way. Solar panels are well on the way to hitting 70% of households. Along with batteries going through the same dramatic price spiral, no extra fossil fuel power stations are now being envisaged.

It’s a similar story in Australia’s eastern states, where coal plants like Hazelwood are being phased out and the National Electricity Grid is absorbing solar at similarly high growth rates. The same story is being played out across the globe.

Businesses are also becoming their own utilities, as shown by high-tech companies like Apple, which are becoming energy “prosumers” that generate their own solar power and then sell excess back to the grid. The 24 largest current buyers of renewable power – a group that includes Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Ikea, Equinix, Mars, Dow, WalMart and Facebook – have bought 3.6 gigawatts of renewable energy since the beginning of 2015. That’s enough to power about half the state of Connecticut.

How or why would Donald Trump want to stop this?

Turning back the tide

Governments, including Trump’s, can try to stand in the way in a bid to force the economy back to a nostalgic past based on coal. But if they do, the lower levels of government, especially the cities of the world, will drive the agenda forward in tandem with businesses that are already riding high in the green economy.

California has driven much of the climate change agenda in the United States, since its Climate Act of 2006 required all cities to develop a climate action plan. San Francisco is moving to 100% renewable energy by 2030 and has mandated all buildings to install solar panels. The city expects paybacks within five years for everyone making the investment.

For all Trump’s pledges to bend trade to his will, he cannot stand in the way of market forces as strong as this. His place in history will be likened to the last Roman emperor standing on top of the wall in Constantinople as the invading horde bears down on the decaying city.

People in climate science and innovation, solar entrepreneurs and businesses will simply shift to those cities that want to be competitive in the 21st century. Many of them will still be in the United States – maybe even in Richlands, Virginia, assuming they don’t want to be left in the past.

Peter Newman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

myWatt is nifty, thrifty and a little bit geeky!

L03, one of the world leaders in developing blockchain technology for the energy industry, says utilities are facing rapid change.

AEMO says Hazelwood closure no threat to reliability – unless market sits on its hands. Meanwhile, Senate Committee recommends planned exit of coal generation by 2020.