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Koalas face many threats, and our conservation efforts are failing them. Koala image from www.shutterstock.com

Koalas are a much-loved Australian icon and a tourism moneyspinner too, contributing more than A$1 billion each year to Australia’s economy.

Worringly, however, there is growing evidence that koala populations are declining rapidly in many parts of Australia. They are thought to be declining in all but one bioregion (a way of classifying ecosystems) in Queensland and New South Wales.

They also face the growing threat of climate change. Recent modelling found that koala habitat could be considerably reduced as the world warms, particularly due to heatwaves and rainfall.

These declines are deeply concerning and failure to reverse them can result in only one outcome: the loss of koalas from many parts of the Australian landscape. But conserving koalas is a complex job.

A wicked problem

In western Queensland, koala numbers declined by 80% between 1995 and 2009, mainly because of habitat loss, drought and heatwaves.

In southeast Queensland, where threats from urban development are a key factor, some populations fell by 55-80% between 1996 and 2015.

The picture is similar in NSW, where there is evidence for a substantial decline in koala numbers over the two centuries from European settlement in 1788 to the first major statewide survey in 1986-87. Subsequent studies have identified steep declines and local extinctions of koala populations in the past 30 years.

Unfortunately, there may be no quick fix: koala recovery has many of the characteristics of a wicked problem, riddled with dilemmas, trade-offs and tough choices.

For a start, koalas are declining for several complex reasons. In the western parts of Queensland and NSW, the main factors are climate change (drought and heatwaves) and habitat loss. Along the coast, koalas are chiefly threatened by rapid urban development and the associated impact of vehicle collisions and dog attacks.

There is also considerable uncertainty about the role of disease (such as chlamydia and retroviral infections) in driving koala declines. We don’t know whether this is a cause or a symptom of the koalas' plight, but we know that it is likely to be having an important impact.

These complexities make it difficult to identify the best management strategies to try to improve things.

There are also social and political complexities that tend to polarise, or at least confuse, the debate about koala conservation. For instance, there are strong trade-offs between koala conservation and other human needs and wants, such as land for urban development, agriculture and economic progress. In reality, these trade-offs tend to limit what is possible for koala recovery.

Finding solutions

In our research we are looking at koala recovery strategies that factor in different threats and trade-offs. In a recent study we looked at which recovery strategies to prioritise across NSW.

Interestingly, instead of spreading conservation efforts thinly across the state, we found the best option by far is to concentrate on particular regions.

If funding is low (say, A$2 million each year) we found it better to focus on koalas in eastern parts of NSW and reduce threats from urban development, particularly dog control.

But if funding is higher (say, A$40 million per year) it is possible to spread conservation efforts more easily between eastern and western parts of the state (reducing the impact of urban development in the east, and habitat loss in the west).

The NSW government has pledged A$100 million for threatened species over five years. With only some of this going to koalas, our work indicates that the strategic prioritisation of limited funding is critical (and potentially should favour eastern over western populations).

Planning for koala recovery

Koalas were listed as “vulnerable” in Queensland, NSW and the Australian Capital Territory under national threatened species legislation in 2012. This is helping to limit impacts on koalas from future development.

But true koala recovery will require a concerted effort by all levels of government and the community to implement measures to combat existing threats. In this process, identifying the best strategic actions and locations for action will be vital.

The federal government has begun a koala recovery planning process, drawing on past efforts. However, a review of koala conservation found that while the objectives were basically fine, the implementation was largely missing.

A key issue is that planning is principally a state matter and detailed planning a local government matter embedded within state legislative frameworks. This means that planning for koala survival and recovery must include all levels of government and their legislative and policy frameworks.

Our research shows the importance of strategic investment in koala conservation, rather than a scattergun approach. The challenge is to formulate an integrated strategy across governments that funds the activities that really work, to yield the highest return for the funds invested. This is not a modest challenge, but is essential to provide koalas with the best chance of long-term survival.

Jonathan Rhodes receives funding from The Australian Research Council, and the Australian, Queensland and New South Wales Governments.

Clive McAlpine has been supported by the Australian Research Council, the Australian Koala Foundation and the Southwest Natural Resource Management body.

Daniel Lunney receives funding from ARC, Office of Environment and Heritage NSW, Foundation for National Parks and Wildlife NSW, and Environmental Trusts NSW. He is affiliated with the School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, and the Office of Environment and Heritage NSW.

Kerrie Wilson receives funding from The University of Queensland, The Australian Research Council, the Australian Department of Environment and the Woodspring Trust.

Truly Santika receives funding from the Australian Government.

After its much heralded re-start last year, has the Large Hadron Collider found a new particle?

Tory leadership candidate and EU Leave campaigner says she remains committed to current pledges to cut emissions and decarbonise energy supply

Andrea Leadsom, the Tory leadership candidate and campaigner to leave the EU, vowed on Tuesday to continue with the UK’s commitments to tackle climate change and decarbonise the energy supply.

She said that reducing greenhouse gases was a duty to future generations, and pledged to continue with the UK’s carbon budgets to set a limit on emissions.

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Damian Carrington tests a concept vehicle touted as a ‘solution for future urban transport’ in a rapidly urbanising world

I’m sitting in a cross between an electric-assisted bicycle and an electric car that looks like a cool golf buggy.

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When comparing apples to apples, a new study finds energy budget climate sensitivity estimates consistent with climate models

Scientists use a variety of approaches to estimate the Earth’s climate sensitivity – how much the planet will warm as a result of humans increasing greenhouse effect. For decades, the different methods were all in good general agreement that if we double the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, Earth’s surface temperatures will immediately warm by about 1–3°C (this is known as the ‘transient climate response’). Because it would take decades to centuries for the Earth to reach a new energy balance, climate scientists have estimated an eventual 2–4.5°C warming from doubled atmospheric carbon (this is ‘equilibrium climate sensitivity’).

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Wolf Hall actor lends his support to Save our Sands, which wants to stop the dredging of Goodwin Sands for the development of Dover port

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The charge, on top of the existing £11.50 congestion charge, would apply from 2017 to cars first sold before 2005. The mayor of London’s proposals to tackle the capital’s “toxic” air also include a big expansion of a planned Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) and a faster roll-out of cleaner buses.

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To mark the 60th anniversary of the Clean Air Act, we’ve been asking Guardian readers to share their memories and stories of what the UK was like before the act came into force.

• You can see all the contributions – or submit your own – via GuardianWitness

The great smog of 1952 swathed London in a toxic smog of pollution, resulting in thousands of deaths over a four-day period. The Clean Air Act was a groundbreaking piece of legislation that led to the phase-out of coal in Britain’s towns and cities.

Sheila Romain, 88, West Sussex
“Coming home from school one day I caught the bus from Crystal Palace to Dulwich. When we got to Gypsy Hill the bus driver said he couldn’t see well enough to go on. I got off knowing I could walk home. When the driver saw in which direction I was going he asked if he could follow me. So, for the next mile and a half, the bus followed me. This must have been the winter 1946-47.”

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Delayed report by the Climate Change Authority could provide Turnbull with a blue-print for a shift to the centre on critical climate policies. Little wonder that the Far Right has gone into melt-down.

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California grid operator under-estimated speed of solar uptake by at least 4 years – and the belly of the duck is getting fatter much sooner than expected.

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The US space agency's Juno probe puts itself in orbit around Jupiter, ready to undertake a survey of what lies beneath the giant planet's obscuring clouds.

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