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Renewables are getting cheaper all the time – here's why
The stars are aligning for Australia to transition to 100% renewable electricity. Our fossil fuel infrastructure is ageing, which means we will soon need to invest in new power generators. New technologies such as battery storage could revolutionise long-standing business models. With care, the transitions away from fossil fuels could offer greater job opportunities.
Our latest research, which corroborates previous work, shows the technology already exists to solve many of the remaining questions around technological capability. For instance, the fact that wind and solar don’t generate electricity when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining can be dealt with by installing a network of diverse generators across a wide area, or by increasing our use of energy storage.
One of the biggest remaining barriers to transition is cost. But this is also rapidly changing. Much work is going into reducing the cost of renewable energy, including the latest funding announcement from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) of A$92 million for 12 solar projects.
The cost of building renewable energyThe cost of renewable energy is highly variable across the world and even within Australia. The picture is not simple, but it does help to start by looking at the big picture.
Average capital costs of constructing new wind, solar PV and ocean/tidal generators are already lower than equivalent coal generation infrastructure.
Research suggests that, overall, the cost of moving to 100% renewable energy is not significantly higher than the cost of hitting a lower target.
The capital cost of investment in renewable energy generation technologies is also falling rapidly. In its 2014 report on global renewable power generation costs, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) showed that the total cost of installation and operation over a lifetime of small-scale residential PV systems in Australia has fallen from US$0.35 to US$0.17 per kilowatt-hour between 2010 and 2014.
In part this has been because of reduced installation costs, together with our exceptional abundance of sunshine.
As a result, Australian new residential solar installation has soared to the fifth highest in the world. Installed capacity accounts for 9% of national electricity generation capacity and 2.8% of electrical energy generation.
The historical reductions in installation costs for wind energy are similar globally and in Australia. Recent 2016 reverse auctions in the Australian Capital Territory have received Australia’s lowest known contract price for renewables with bids at A$77 per megawatt-hour.
Beyond buildingBut the capital cost of building generation infrastructure is not the whole story. Once the generator is built, operations and maintenance costs also become important. For most renewables (biomass excluded) the fuel costs are zero because nature itself provides the fuel for free.
Other costs that we must consider are variable and fixed costs. Fixed costs, such as annual preventative maintenance or insurance, don’t change with the amount of electricity produced. Variable costs, such as casual labour or generator repairs, may increase when more electricity is produced.
The variable costs for some renewables (biomass, hydropower and large-scale solar PV) are lower than coal. For other renewable technologies they are only slightly higher. Fixed costs for almost all renewable technologies are lower than for coal.
We also need to think about costs beyond individual generators. The vastness of our Australian continent is a bonus and a challenge for building 100% renewable energy.
It can be used strategically to give a 100% renewables supply reliability by using an interconnected network of generators. For instance, it may be very sunny or windy in one region. Excess electricity produced in this region can fill a gap in electricity demand in less sunny or windy places elsewhere.
But this also poses challenges. To take advantage of the reliability that a highly distributed renewable electricity system can provide, we must also consider the costs associated with expanding the transmission network.
For example, in our research we investigated one possible 100% renewables electricity scenario. This was conservatively based on current technology and demand (conservative because technology is likely to change, and electricity demand has been unexpectedly falling). The scenario required a transmission grid two-and-a-half times larger than our current grid, including new cross-continental linkages between Western Australia and the Northern Territory, which currently stand alone from the well-integrated eastern Australian networks.
The challenges of transitioning to a renewable electricity sector are no doubt great, but our ageing generator infrastructure means that an overhaul will soon be due. Even though the price of electricity from old coal power plants is currently cheaper than that from many new renewable plants (because the former are already paid off), cost reductions mean a strong business case now exists for renewable technologies investment.
In a recent article on The Conversation, John Hewson wrote that “renewable energy is one of our most ‘shovel ready’ business opportunities”.
Now is the time to pre-empt the looming deadline for infrastructure overhaul to ensure future economic resilience for Australia.
Bonnie McBain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.
London zoo ants at war - archive, 8 September 1924
8 September 1924: Short, fierce campaign between two colonies of ants
Two colonies of ants at the Zoological Gardens, London, last week attracted some attention by the announcement that a decisive war was about to take place between them. The colony referred to as the Left had recently been deposited in the insect-house, and there were indications that the older colony, called the Right, would attempt to wipe it out, as they had wiped out other intruders.
On inquiry at the Zoological Gardens on, Saturday, the “Sunday Times” learned that most of the decisive fighting had now taken place and the Left Army would certainly be the victors.
Continue reading...Relic of a long-gone medieval community
Madingley, Cambridge The hall’s owners desired an estate with a view, and that did not include a village street, so the people were evicted
A time-travelling Tudor peasant might return to the place of their birth and find reassurance in the sight of Madingley’s medieval church. They could stand before its sturdy tower and run their fingers over stones embedded in mortar, as I did, then step inside to rediscover the font where they were baptised, and look up for re-acquaintance with exquisitely detailed medieval figures floating in stained glass.
But a hard stare into the nettled field beside the churchyard would make them wonder where their village had gone. The 18th century owners of Madingley Hall, which is about four miles from the centre of Cambridge, desired an estate with a view, and that view did not include a village street. So by the middle of the century the people had been evicted from their homes, their houses razed to the ground. I came to search for evidence of this lost community and found it.
Continue reading...Large-scale solar to triple after what could be Arena's final renewable energy grants
Greens urge Labor to oppose $1bn cut to Australian Renewable Energy Agency, removing its future capacity for grants
A giant surge of investment in renewable energy has been sparked by what might be the last grants made by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, as the parliament is poised to cut most of its funding.
Large-scale solar will triple in size, with Arena today announcing the 12 winners of its $92m in grants, which together leverage more than $1bn investment from private companies.
Continue reading...Amitav Ghosh: 'climate change is like death, no one wants to talk about it'
The author’s new book on climate change questions why the arts have been largely silent on the issue and says India must do more reduce its emissions
Speaking at a literary festival in Bhutan, the Indian novelist Amitav Ghosh recently predicted that Himalayan regions, for no fault of their own, will face a catastrophe as climate change takes hold. So chilling was Ghosh that the local paper reported – only half in jest – that a disturbed audience had to be soothed by a subsequent talk by Buddhist monks.
Ghosh, best known for his historical novels, has been travelling the world talking about his new book, The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable, born out of a series of lectures at the University of Chicago.
Continue reading...Carmichael coalmine appeal says Adani 'misled' Native Title Tribunal over benefits
Wangan and Jagalingou people say judge should have found company ‘misled’ tribunal over jobs and economic impact of mine
A traditional owner of the site of Adani’s proposed Carmichael mine has vowed to keep fighting the project as he lodged an appeal from a federal court ruling that endorsed the state government’s approval of the mining leases.
Adrian Burragubba, who speaks on behalf of members of the Wangan and Jagalingou people, who oppose the mine, lodged an appeal to the full bench of the court on Thursday.
Continue reading...CSIRO launches new hybrid energy technology R&D hub
Pollinate wins new investment towards lighting up Indian slums with solar
Origin seeks to build major portfolio of large scale solar plants
NZ wind producer Tilt Renewables names Melbourne as regional HQ
What do electric car drivers regret most about leaving petrol behind?
ARENA announces large scale solar grant winners, 480MW in total
Don’t butcher ARENA: Industry leaders sign open letter to Parliament
Debunking hayfever myths
Is hayfever an allergy to hay? Or even a fever? We take a look at some common misconceptions held about allergies, as well as a few natural remedies
Hayfever is, in fact, a seasonal form of ‘allergic rhinitis’ or allergic reaction in the nasal passage, which becomes inflamed on contact with allergens such as pollens, dander and moulds. The cause may vary, but the symptoms are similar, ranging from runny nose, itchy eyes and sneezing to headaches, lack of concentration and sleepless nights.
Continue reading...Lyon confirms plans for two big solar + storage plants in Australia
Yosemite National Park unveils 400-acre expansion
Could lack of dingoes explain why Tasmania's bandicoots are not wary of dogs?
India and Nepal concern over Tibet flood advice gap
Let's chemically rebuild fossil fuels to create sustainable energy
When we burn a fossil fuel – coal, oil or gas – it produces energy that we use, and byproducts such as water and carbon dioxide. It’s the CO₂ that’s proving to be a problem – humans have increased the amount of it in the atmosphere by about 40%, causing the planet to warm by around 1℃ so far. This means we must act quickly, given that the Paris Agreement aims to limit temperature increases to 1.5℃.
The desire for sustainable, low-carbon energy is driving a global boom in renewable energy. But alternative energy sources – particularly wind and solar – come with their own challenges.
What if, instead of burning ancient fossils fuels, we could put the ingredients back together to reassemble the fuel? If we could do so using sustainably sourced energy, we would have a clean, and potentially infinite, fuel supply.
It sounds mad, but actually scientists have made significant advances in recent years. And surprisingly, they are doing so by imitating plants.
Mimicking natureThe amount of solar energy striking the Earth is 5,000 times greater than human demand (around 100,000 terawatts versus 20 terawatts). One problem with solar energy is its reliability. Solar cells don’t produce energy at night or when the sun isn’t shining. This can be fixed by storing solar energy, with the help of several emerging storage technologies.
But we could also use the energy to produce other fuels, which we can burn later to provide a predictable and constant power supply. If we are using solar energy, this process forms a closed, sustainable cycle.
A large amount of research is being carried out in this area, known as artificial photosynthesis. Photosynthesis is the process carried out by plants to store solar energy, indirectly creating fossil fuels, so the name reflects humanity’s attempts to mimic nature.
The electrical energy provided by solar cells can be used to split water and produce a fuel, hydrogen. When hydrogen is burned, water is formed and energy is released. Water is the only byproduct.
Researchers across the globe are working on this process, and recent developments have shown how to make it more efficient. My recent work has reached 22% efficiency, which is double the predicted values for the process to become viable.
The next stepBut a gaseous fuel does present practical handling problems. So hydrogen is easier to store than electrical energy, but it’s not our ideal fuel.
Liquid fuels are preferable, because existing fuel pumps, cars and coal power stations would need only minor changes in order to use these carbon-based non-fossil fuels.
Taking inspiration from photosynthesis again, the next step is clear: combine hydrogen with carbon to produce artificial fossil fuels. Work to make this process efficient is already under way across the globe, with impressive results.
The efficiency isn’t as high as for hydrogen yet, but progress is impressive. Liquid fuels are being produced with the systems working more efficiently than plants.
This concept provides a supply of fuel that is limited only by the Sun. It does use carbon-based fuels, but is overall carbon-neutral. All of the carbon dioxide produced when burning the fuel will be used to produce fuel again, by collecting the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to react with hydrogen.
All of the water being split to make the hydrogen will be released as water vapour when the fuel is burned, and will eventually become rain.
Replacing fossil fuelsExisting technology cannot replace fossil fuels. This is an important point when considering necessary investment in solar panels or wind turbines. Replacement of existing energy supplies with an intermittent power source requires storage.
Humanity must be ready for fossil fuels to run out, and because the move away from fossil fuels must happen eventually, it would be wise to focus on researching the necessary technology to allow for a smooth transition so that society is ready.
Fossil fuels are finite, but solar energy is almost infinite, and typically things that are very abundant end up being very cheap.
So can this really work? Well, this process has been carried out for more than 3 billion years. There is literally nothing more extensively tested!
Shannon A. Bonke receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Electromaterials Science (ACES).
Our oceans are out of balance – can we learn some tips from feng shui?
Feng shui is the ancient Chinese philosophy of rearranging built structures in the environment to generate qi or “energy”. But it may have increasing relevance for when, where and how we build into our oceans.
This month 1,500 delegates from 80 countries gathered in Montpellier, on France’s Mediterranean coast, for EcoSummit 2016, to devise sustainable solutions on how to cross the boundaries of ecology and engineering. At the heart of these discussions was marine spatial planning, an important element in the harmony and balance, or feng shui, required in our oceans.
Fragmented seascapesGlobally, we have a long history of building into the sea, dating back to the first Roman seawalls and breakwalls. Down the road from the conference centre, the coastline is armoured with stone laid down in the 17th century during the reign of King Louis XIV.
Japan has been adding artificial reefs to enhance fish production since the 18th century. This practice continues today, ranging from opportunistic sinking of ships to specially constructed installations.
Modern construction has overcrowded our oceans with energy platforms, the most densely constructed of which are often located in the smallest water bodies. The result is a fragmented seascape that creates barriers to important ecological migrations and processes.
The pace of this marine development is rapid and global, but remains fairly unregulated in time and space. Imagine how you would feel in a house where all the furniture was placed in one room, or where the doors to your dining room were nailed shut?
This is occurring in our oceans, where developments may be concentrated in just one area and hard structures block or modify natural water movements. Like our houses, we need to “feng shui” our oceans to achieve a state of equilibrium between societal needs and the environment.
The future of our oceans isn’t set in concrete, but can be a balance between hard and soft engineering – as we heard from speakers from around the world.
Balancing yin and yangOur oceans are becoming crowded. Marine spatial planning is the feng shui that can balance the needs of different ocean users – energy and aquaculture, for instance. But we need to make sure that the resources we receive from our oceans are matched by the efforts we invest in conservation and restoration.
Often the need to defend valuable commercial property from ocean forces overrides the ecological considerations, unbalancing the ocean’s yin and yang.
Some of the best examples of marine spatial planning for ecology are the networks of marine protected areas in many countries.
However, where conservation is not considered, developments remain relatively randomly spaced without thought for important principles of ecological connectivity. Marine feng shui is best supported by continuity and connectedness, principles that are crucial if our oceans are to continue delivering ecosystem services that we rely on, such as food provision.
Spatial planning relies on mapping to identify where and how the ocean is used in relation to natural resources and habitat. We now have the tools to do this at the large scale relevant to ecological processes.
At the most basic level, Google Earth provides a high-resolution picture of the built environment that can be translated for management. At a more advanced level, global observation platforms can generate information about the earth’s ecosystems with unparalleled detail. With these tools literally raining down information from above, we are now best placed to make important decisions to conserve the integrity of our oceans.
Offsetting our ocean footprintWe can look to principles already used in landscape ecology. In many parts of Asia, ecology is combining with the practical considerations for human habitation to create “healthy buildings” with natural temperature regulation, lighting and noise control. In fact, even strategies such as the Building with Nature program appear to have roots in feng shui.
With better planning and forethought about when, where and how we build into the ocean we can have more positive ecological outcomes. Encouraging multi-purpose developments, such as those increasingly used in aquaculture for economic benefits, could benefit ecosystems by constraining environmental impacts.
We can retrospectively feng shui built habitats with targeted conservation of threatened species, but also avoid building new structures in locations where they might impact on migrating birds, turtles or sea mammals. The spatial arrangement of structures might also be used to future-proof warming oceans and provide corridors of movement for ecological climate migrants.
Achieving all the necessary elements for good feng shui in our oceans will be difficult without investment in spatial planning and sustainable developments. Despite the global interconnectedness of our seascapes, their management is largely uncoordinated across territories and economic responsibilities remain uncertain.
What is clear is that our oceans are becoming a jigsaw of human-made structures, but with ecological forethought we have the potential to fit these pieces together for the greatest benefits.
Katherine Dafforn receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the Sydney Institute of Marine Science.
Mariana Mayer-Pinto is affiliated with the Sydney Institute for Marine Science
Nathan Waltham is affiliated with TropWATER (Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research), James Cook University Australia. Dr Waltham receives funding from: Australian Government, Queensland Government, Industry, Natural Resources Management Groups, Local Government and external funding grant bodies.