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Sustainable housing's expensive, right? Not when you look at the whole equation
Low-energy or zero-energy housing is international best practice, but is still considered costly. Part of the problem is that studies of housing standards typically use only cost-benefit analysis to assess their value, and so often wrongly conclude that sustainable housing is unaffordable.
Our new research shows how such analyses may miss some flow-on financial benefits – such as reduced energy bills and lower mobility costs. Most importantly, these analyses also overlook effects on householders' health and quality of life arising from factors such as improved thermal comfort.
Sustainable housing can also have important benefits for some of the most vulnerable members of our community, as the report released this week shows.
The environmental performance of Australian housing has improved slowly, associated with changes in minimum building regulations and the creation of subsidies such as solar rebates. This is despite sustainable housing having many documented benefits, including lower (or non-existent) utility bills and greenhouse gas emissions, and improved comfort and health.
Conventional cost-benefit analyses exclude these benefits. That leaves significant gaps in the story that could be used to support investment in sustainable housing.
What did the study assess?Our study involved a three-year, mixed-method evaluation of a small sustainable housing development in Horsham, Victoria. Commissioned by the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), the study used both quantitative and qualitative methods, which are rarely combined to assess housing policy and environmental performance.
Four two-bedroom, nine-star-rated (under the National House Energy Rating Scheme, NatHERS) houses were built to maximise passive solar principles. The design elements and technologies used included (partial) reverse brick-veneer construction, double-glazed windows, solar hot water, a 1.5-kilowatt solar photovoltaic system and a shared 5,000-litre rainwater tank.
The houses were built without air conditioning. They do have ceiling fans and gas heating in the living area.
We evaluated these nine-star houses against seven control houses also in Horsham and built to DHHS standards, with a six-star NatHERS rating. We also compared the results to a DHHS technical model of standard industry practice. We conducted a traditional cost-benefit analysis, technical performance analysis (utility consumption, internal temperature), three rounds of interviews with the householders during different seasons, and a personalised household sustainability assessment.
Through a traditional cost-benefit lens, the nine-star housing was not financially viable for DHHS. Even if DHHS was able to capture the savings to the householders, payback was only achieved within 40 years for one of the four dwellings in a high-energy-price future. This was due to higher-than-expected capital costs for the sustainability initiatives.
Falling short: the conventional cost-benefit outcome for the nine-star houses.
RMIT Centre for Urban Research, DHHS
However, resale value could be up to A$40,000 higher per unit. The technical performance analysis also identified significant benefits for the nine-star households. These included reduced utility consumption and bills. One occupant told us:
Look, I haven’t paid any off my power bill in six months and I’m still in credit.
We found that these households:
were A$1,000 a year better off as a result of reduced utility consumption (including solar feed-in tariff);
purchased 45% less electricity than the control households (and 73% less than the standard industry practice);
consumed 22% less water (30% less than the industry standard);
had 40% less CO₂ environmental impact from power use (63% less than the industry standard); and
Car equivalent of environmental performance.
RMIT Centre for Urban Research, DHHS
- were comfortable with the indoor temperature of their house for 10% more of the time (even without air conditioning).
Summary of average annual utilities consumed/generated from each dwelling.
RMIT Centre for Urban Research, DHHS
Extreme weather events magnified the comfort benefits. On a second consecutive day above 41℃, the nine-star houses were up to 16.6℃ cooler (without air conditioning) compared to the department’s standard six-star house (which had air conditioning).
This meant householders could stay at home during heatwaves rather than needing to seek alternative accommodation, which happened sometimes for the control households. One occupant said:
…in summer I would sit down at the supermarket, you know, because it was cool … [Now] I can stay home and veg out.
Temperature in the living rooms of monitored houses and external temperature for January 18-19, 2013.
RMIT Centre for Urban Research, DHHS
Residents confirm well-being benefits
Interviews with residents highlighted positive social outcomes from living in sustainable housing, which supported the technical data. The benefits they described included improved health and personal finances.
For example, these householders said they had extra spending money due to low (or no) utility bills. This meant they could buy children Christmas presents, avoid personal debt and lay-by, or go on a holiday.
I do go clothes shopping on occasion now instead of thinking, “Oh God, I have to go and lay-by that.”
Householders described how this led to reduced stress and better mental health.
The research demonstrates that the housing sector’s over-reliance on cost-benefit analysis may be overlooking important benefits (and detriments) of different housing arrangements. Combining qualitative and quantitative evaluation methods can help uncover a more detailed and complete picture of how housing affects people’s lives.
Our research also highlights how sustainable housing benefits extend beyond the environment. These flow-on effects can improve the living conditions of some of the most vulnerable members of society. This, in turn, potentially reduces pressure on health and other support systems and sectors.
Combining sustainable and affordable housingOur study is part of an emerging body of research that challenges the idea that sustainable housing is unaffordable.
The evidence increasingly shows that sustainability and good design can improve affordability when fuller cost-benefit analyses are undertaken and non-monetised social, health and well-being benefits are considered.
To date, however, there is limited “real world” research into people living in sustainable housing, particularly in the affordable housing sector. Without more multidisciplinary evaluations of this kind, we are left with an incomplete picture of the benefits of this type of housing.
Such studies will be critically important as Australia seeks to make the transition to a more sustainable future. Climate change and increased livability costs are likely to add to the challenges for social housing organisations and the tenants who depend on their services.
Trivess Moore receives funding from various organisations including the Australian Research Council and Victorian Department of Health and Human Services.
Cecily Maller receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program of the Australian Government, the Australian Research Council, and the Victorian Government's Department of Housing and Human Services. She is affiliated with the Institute of Australian Geographers and The Australian Sociological Association.
Ralph Horne receives funding from various organisations including the Australian Research Council and Victorian Department of Health and Human Services. He is also currently Director of the United Nations Global Compact - Cities Programme.
Yolande Strengers receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Energy Consumers Australia and the Victorian Government's Department of Health and Human Services.
An open letter to the Prime Minister on the climate crisis, from 154 scientists
Dear The Hon. Malcolm Turnbull MP, Prime Minister of Australia,
The following is an open letter signed by 154 Australian atmospheric, marine, environmental, biological and medical scientists, including several leading climatologists, for your and your government’s attention.
There is no Planet BIn July 2016, global temperatures soared to the hottest in the 136 years of the instrumental record, 0.1℃ warmer than previous warm Julys in 2015, 2011 and 2009. It followed a succession of rising temperatures, moving from 0.42℃ above average in 2000, to 0.87℃ above average by 2015.
Developments in the atmosphere-ocean system reported by major climate research organisations (including NASA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the US National Snow & Ice Data Center, the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, the Tyndall Centre, the Potsdam Institute; the science academics of dozens of nations; and in Australia the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology) include:
A rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to 404.39 parts per million (ppm; as of July 2016), an average rise of 3.08 ppm per year. This rate is unprecedented in the geological record of the past 55 million years, and is tracking towards the stability threshold of the Antarctic ice sheet, estimated at around 450ppm atmospheric CO₂.
The rise in greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere and oceans is leading to an increase in extreme weather events relative to the period 1950-60, including tropical storms such as those in Fiji, Vanuatu and the Philippines, with lives lost and damage estimated in the billions of dollars. In Australia the frequency of extreme weather events has been increasing, and since 2001 the number of extreme heat records has outnumbered extreme cool records by almost three to one for daytime maximum temperatures, and around five to one for night-time minimum temperatures.
Impacts on a similar scale are taking place in the ocean, where the CO₂ rise has caused an increase in acidity from pH 8.2 to 8.1 already. The pH is predicted to decrease to 7.8 by 2100, affecting coral reefs and the marine food chain.
Ice sheet melt rates have been increasing and the rate of sea-level rise has been accelerating, from roughly 1.7mm per year over the past century to 3.2mm per year between 1993 and 2010, and to about 3.5mm per year today. This threatens low-lying islands, deltas and lower river valleys where billions of people live – a problem that is compounded by increased variability of river flows in terms of floods and draughts.
We are concerned that global warming, amplified by feedbacks from polar ice melt, methane release from permafrost, and extensive fires, may become irreversible, including the possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a crucial component of the global climate system that transfers heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic.
According to James Hansen, NASA’s former chief climate scientist, “burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows“. Joachim Schellnhuber, Germany’s chief climate scientist, has summed up the situation by saying: “We’re simply talking about the very life support system of this planet.”
We note your broad agreement with this point, in light of your 2010 statement that:
…we are as humans conducting a massive science experiment with this planet. It’s the only planet we have got… We know that the consequences of unchecked global warming would be catastrophic… We as a human species have a deep and abiding obligation to this planet and to the generations that will come after us.
While the Paris Agreement remains unbinding and global warming has received minimal attention in the recent elections, governments worldwide are presiding over a large-scale demise of the planetary ecosystems, which threatens to leave large parts of Earth uninhabitable.
We call on the Australian government to tackle the root causes of an unfolding climate tragedy and do what is required to protect future generations and nature, including meaningful reductions of Australia’s peak carbon emissions and coal exports, while there is still time.
There is no Planet B.
Yours sincerely,
Dr Christine Adams-Hosking, Conservation planner, University of Queensland
Associate Professor Stephen Adelstein, Medical scientist, University of Sydney
Professor Ross Alford, Tropical ecologist, James Cook University
Dr Wallace Ambrose, Archaeological anthropologist, ANU
Dr Martin Anda, Environmental engineer, Murdoch University
Dr Marion Anderston, Geochemist, Monash University
Professor Michael Archer, Paleontologist, UNSW Australia
Dr Leanne Armand, Marine Researcher, Macquarie University
Professor Patricia Armati, Medical scientist, University of Sydney
Professor Owen Atkin, Plant respiration researcher, ANU
Professor Elaine Baker, Marine scientist, University of Sydney
Associate Professor Cathy Banwell, Medical scientist, ANU
Dr Andrew Barnes, Aquatic animal health researcher, University of Queensland
Dr Fiona Beck, Renewable energy researcher, ANU
Dr Tom Beer, Climatic and environmental change researcher, CSIRO
Professor Andrew Blakers, Photovoltaics/energy storage researcher, ANU
Professor Phillip Board, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Justin Borevitz, Plant geneticist, ANU
Dr Caryl Bosman, Environmental planning researcher, Griffith University
Professor David Bowman, Forestry researcher, University of Tasmania
Dr Timothy Broadribb, Plant Scientist, University of Tasmania
Dr Helen Brown, Environmental health researcher, Curtin University
Dr Tim Brown, Medicine and environment researcher, ANU
Professor Ralf Buckley, Conservation/ecotourism researcher, Griffith University
Dr Florian Busch, Plant scientist, ANU
Dr Jason Byrne, Urban design researcher, Curtin University
Professor Maria Byrne, Marine and developmental biologist, University of Sydney
Dr Martina Calais, Renewable energy researcher, Murdoch University
Associate Professor Craig Carter, Engineering and IT researcher, Murdoch University
Dr Phill Cassey, Ecologist, Adelaide University
Professor Carla Catterall, Ecologist, Griffith University
Dr Juleen Cavanaugh, Biomedical scientist, ANU
Professor Fred Chow, Plant biologist, ANU
Associate Professor David Cohen, Geochemist, UNSW Australia
Professor Steven Cooper, Evolutionary biologist, SA Museum
Professor Rod Connolly, Marine scientist, Griffith University
Professor Jann Conroy, Plant scientist, Western Sydney University
Dr Lucy Coupland, Medical scientist, ANU
Dr Joseph Coventry, Solar energy researcher, ANU
Dr Chris Creagh, Physicist, Murdoch University
Professor Patricia Dale, Environment/planning researcher, Griffith University
Dr Armanda Davies, Planning geographer, Curtin University
Dr Ian Davies, Forestry fire management researcher, ANU
Dr Kirsten Davies, Ethno-ecology and environmental law researcher, Macquarie University
Dr Robert Davis, Vertebrate biologist, Edith Cowan University
Professor Keith Dear, Global health researcher, ANU
Dr Fjalar de Haan, Sustainability researcher, University of Melbourne
Professor Hans Peter Dietz, Medical scientist, Penrith Hospital
Professor Bob Douglas, Medical scientist, ANU
Associate Professor Mark Douglas, Medical scientist, University of Sydney
Dr Jen Drysdale, Climate and energy researcher, University of Melbourne
Professor Angela Dulhunty, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Robyn Eckersley, Climate change governance researcher, University of Melbourne
Dr Elin Charles Edwards, Environmental geographer, University of Queensland
Professor David Eldridge, Evolutionary biologist, UNSW Australia
Professor David Elsworth, Environmental ecologist, Western Sydney University
Associate Professor Jason Evans, Climate change researcher, UNSW Australia
Dr Isabelle Ferru, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Tim Flannery, Climate Council
Professor Barry Fox, Ecologist, UNSW Australia
Dr Evan Franklin, Solar energy researcher, ANU
Dr Diego Garcia-Bellido, Paleontologist, University of Adelaide
Dr Stephen Garnett, Conservation and sustainability researcher, Charles Darwin University
Dr John Gillen, Soil scientist, ANU
Dr Andrew Glikson, Paleoclimatologist, ANU
Dr Susan Gould, Climate change researcher, Griffith UNiversity
Professor Colin Groves, Anthropologist, ANU
Dr Huade Guan, Hydro-meteorologist, Flinders University
Professor Neil Gunningham, Global governance researcher, ANU
Dr Asish Hagar, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Dr Nina Hall, Sustainable water researcher, University of Queensland
Dr Willow Hallgren, Atmospheric scientist, Griffith University
Dr Elizabeth Hanna, Environmental health researcher, ANU
Associate Professor David Harley, Epidemiologist, ANU
Professor Robert S. Hill, Paleobotanist, University of Adelaide
Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Marine climatologist and Great Barrier Reef researcher, University of Queensland
Professor Geoff Hope, Archaeologist and natural history researcher, ANU
Associate Professor Michael Howes, Environmental scientist, Griffith University
Professor Lesley Hughes, Climate change and species researcher, University of Adelaide
Dr Paul Humphries, Environmental scientist, Charles Sturt University
Professor Phillip Jenning, Energy researcher, Murdoch University
Professor Darryl Jones, Behavioural ecologist, Griffith University
Dr Hugh Jones, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Dr Jochen Kaempf, Physical oceanographer, Flinders University
Professor Jeffrey Keelan, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Professor Peter Kershaw, Biogeographer and botanist, Monash University
Dr Carsten Kulheim, Plant physiologist, ANU
Professor Rakkesh Kumar, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Dr Lori Lach, Rainforest conservationist, James Cook University
Professor Barry Lacopetta, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Professor Trevor Lamb, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Tony Larkum, Plant biologist, University of Technology Sydney
Dr Annie Lau, Geography and environmental management researcher, University of Quensland
Professor Bill Laurance, Tropical environment and sustainability researcher, James Cook University
Associate Professor Fred Leusch, Soil, water and energy researcher, Griffith University
Professor Andrew Lowe, Plant conservationist, University of Adelaide
Dr Fabio Luciano, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Professor Justin Marshall, Marine biologist, University of Queensland
Dr Melanie Massaro, Ecologist and ornithologist, Charles Sturt University
Associate Professor John F. McCarthy, Resource environment researcher, ANU
Dr Allison McInnes, Plant biologist, UTS
AssociateProfessor Andrew McKenzie, Landscape planning researcher, University of Canberra
Dr Kathryn McMahon, Environmental researcher, Edith Cowan University
Professor Andrew Millington, Land change scientist, Flinders University
Professor Angela Moles, Evolutionary ecologist, UNSW Australia
Professor Renee Morris, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Professor Barbara Norman, Urban planning researcher, University of Canberra
Professor Nikos Ntoumanis, Behavioural medicine researcher, Curtin University
Dr Bradley Opdyke, Climate historian, ANU
Professor Richard G. Pearson, Marine and tropical biologist, James Cook University
Dr Barrie Pittock, Climate scientist, CSIRO
Dr Jason Potas, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Susan Prescott, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Dr Lynda Prior, Climate researcher, University of Tasmania
_Dr Thomas Prowse, Biologist, University of Adelaide
Professor Marie Ranson, Molecular biologist, University of Wollongong
Professor Steve Redman, Medical scientist, ANU
Associate Professor Tracy Rogers, Evolutionary ecologist, UNSW Australia
Professor Chris Ryan, Eco-innovation researcher, University of Melbourne
Dr Oz Sahnin, Climate change researcher, Griffith University
Associate Professor Peter Sainsbury, Climate and health researcher, University of Sydney
Professor David Sinclair, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Dr Tom Sobey, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Professor Will Steffen, Climate change researcher, ANU
_Professor Peter Steinberg, Marine scientist, UNSW Australia
Associate Professor Christian Stricker, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Ian Suthers, Marine biologist, UNSW Australia
Associate Professor Sue Taylor, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Dr Sebastian Thomas, Sustainability researcher, University of Melbourne
_Dr Andrew Thomson, Solar researcher, ANU
Associate Professor Thomas Thorsten, Marine biologist, UNSW Australia
Associate Professor Ian Tibbetts, Marine Scientist, University of Queensland
Professor David Tissue, Plant ecophysiologist, Western Sydney University
Professor Matthias Tomczak, Oceanographer, Flinders University
Mr Shane Toohey, Medical scientist, University of Western Australia
Dr Gail Trapp, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Professor Patrick Troy, Human ecologist, ANU
Professor Tom Trull, Antarctic, oceans and atmosphere researcher, CSIRO
Professor David Tscharke, Medical scientist, ANU
Professor Chris Turney, Antarctic climatologist, UNSW Australia
Dr Tania Urmee, Renewable energy technologist, Murdoch University
Professor René Vaillancourt, Plant geneticist, University of Tasmania
Professor John Veevers, Earth scientist, Macquarie University
Professor Charlie Veron, Marine scientist, Australian Institute of Marine Science
Professor Phil Waite, Medical scientist, UNSW Australia
Dr Elaine Walker, Physics and energy researcher, Murdoch University
Dr Hayden Washington, Environmental researcher, UNSW Australia
Professor David Watson, Water and society ecologist, Charles Sturt University
Dr Scarla J. Weeks, Biophysical oceanographer, University of Queensland
Professor Adrian Werner, Hydrologist, Flinders University
_Mr Peter Weiske, Medical and environmental scientist, ANU
Dr Jonathan Whale, Energy researcher, Murdoch University
_Associate Professor George Wilson, Wildlife management researcher, ANU
Dr Phillip Zylstra, Forests and fire researcher, University of Wollongong
Andrew Glikson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.
Queensland solar projects that could create 2,600 jobs at risk in federal cuts
Many schemes may not go ahead if the Australian Renewable Energy Agency is defunded in the government’s omnibus bill, ACF warns
Thousands of jobs could be created in Queensland if 10 large-scale solar projects were to receive funding, according to analysis by the Australian Conservation Foundation.
The projects, earmarked for funding by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (Arena), would create around 2,695 jobs according to the study.
Continue reading...Hottest day of 2016 recorded at Gravesend in Kent
Human-induced climate change began earlier than previously thought
Signs of warming appear as early as 1830 say researchers, whose analysis will help build accurate baseline of temperature before influence of human activity
Continents and oceans in the northern hemisphere began to warm with industrial-era fossil fuel emissions nearly 200 years ago, pushing back the origins of human-induced climate change to the mid-19th century.
The first signs of warming from the rise in greenhouse gases which came hand-in-hand with the Industrial Revolution appear as early as 1830 in the tropical oceans and the Arctic, meaning that climate change witnessed today began about 180 years ago.
Five ways Proxima b find is important
Earth-sized world 'around nearest star'
Microbeads – tiny objects, massive problem?
There can be around 100,000 of them in the average face wash, but now MPs are calling for a ban and manufacturers are swapping plastics for ground-up peach-pits in products
The late Dr John Ugelstad was a hero of Norwegian science. “Why go to space when you can go to Trondheim,” Newsweek crowed on a visit to his labs in the 80s. It had come to photograph him in the company of a few of the millions of tiny particles – microbeads – he had invented. Prior to Ugelstad, it had been assumed that the only way to make tiny plastic polymers spherical was to do it in the weightlessness of space – the ones made on Earth had come out as useless droopy plastic soufflés. But Ugelstad had found a way, and the results were revolutionary.
In medicine, they allowed the separation of bodily substances to make testing much easier, especially for Aids. And in cancer, his “paramagnetic” (magnetic only in a magnetic field) microbeads allowed new treatments that would pile into bone cancer patients’ bones and “scrub out” the old cancerous cells.
Continue reading...Obama's offshore drilling puts whales and dolphins in peril, groups warn
Environmental groups warn president’s climate legacy could be at risk over research showing areas cleared for oil and gas extraction contain marine life
Environmental groups have turned on the Obama administration over offshore oil and gas extraction, warning it puts whales and dolphins in peril and risks undermining the president’s commitment to putting the brakes on climate change.
Barack Obama, who recently called global warming an “genuine existential threat”, has enjoyed largely solid support from green groups that have praised his leadership on the issue. But Obama’s environmentalist allies are increasingly frustrated over federally approved fossil fuel drilling, just as the US president attempts to put the finishing touches on his climate legacy.
Continue reading...Animal jams and selfies: Yellowstone deals with record number of tourists – video
With limited resources, Yellowstone national park is trying to manage crushing tourism that tangles roadways, spawns traffic accidents and provokes clashes between humans and the park’s natural world
Continue reading...Italy's deadly earthquake is the latest in a history of destruction
The Appenines region of central Italy has been struck by a deadly earthquake, with a magnitude of 6.2. The quake, which had an epicentre roughly 10km southeast of Norcia, Italy, occurred just over seven years after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake that killed more than 300 people only 90km away.
The latest earthquake occurred at 3:36 am local time. The number of fatalities is unknown at time of writing but already exceeds 30. Buildings have collapsed in nearby Amatrice and residents are reportedly trapped in rubble.
General tectonic setting of Italy, showing seismicity over the past 10 years from the USGS catalogue.
USGS
Fracture zone
This earthquake is no surprise. Italy is prone to earthquakes; it sits above the boundary of the African and European plates. The oceanic crust of the African plate is subducting (sinking) under Italy, creating iconic natural features such as the volcano at Mount Vesuvius. These plates are converging at a rate of around 5mm each year.
Both the L’Aquila and Norcia earthquakes were located below the central Appenines, which form the mountainous spine of Italy.
The Earth’s crust under the Appenines of central and western Italy is extending; eastern central Italy is moving to the north east relative to Rome. As a result, this region experiences normal faulting: where one part of the earth subsides relative to another as the crust is stretched.
The fault systems in the central Appenines are short and structurally complex, so the earthquakes are not large by global standards, the largest almost invariably hover around magnitude 6.8 to 7.0. But because the quakes are shallow and structurally complex, and because many of the local towns and cities contain vulnerable buildings, strong shaking from these earthquakes has the potential to inflict major damage and loss of life in urban areas.
This region also seems to be particularly prone to earthquake clustering, whereby periods of relative quiet are interrupted by several strong earthquakes over weeks to decades.
A history of quakesBoth Norcia and L’Aquila feature prominently at either end of a zone of large Appenine earthquakes. This zone has produced many strong earthquakes. The latest Norcia earthquake occurred only around 90km northwest of the L’Aquila earthquake and very close to the epicentre of the 1979 Norcia earthquake, which had a magnitude of 5.9.
But the area’s earthquake history can be traced back over seven centuries. During this period, this region has been hit by at least six earthquakes that have caused very strong to severe shaking. Amatrice, so badly damaged in the most recent quake, was severely damaged in 1639. A few decades later, in 1703, roughly 10,000 people were killed in Norcia, Montereale, L’Aquila and the surrounding Appenine region in three magnitude 6.2-6.7 earthquakes.
Parts of Norcia were subsequently built upon the surface rupture created in the 1703 earthquake. Another earthquake in 1997 killed 11 people.
In this most recent event, an estimated 13,000 people would have experienced severe ground shaking, probably lasting 10-20 seconds.
The estimated damage of this latest earthquake will almost inevitably exceed US$100 million, and may top US$1 billion. Amatrice appears to be among the populated areas that were most severely affected.
What lies ahead?The region now faces a prolonged and energetic aftershock sequence; over the first 2.5 hours following the mainshock, at least four earthquakes of around magnitude 4.5 were recorded in the region by the US Geological Survey. More than 10,000 aftershocks were recorded following the L’Aquila earthquake in 2009.
We note that within the region, there is excellent and continuously improving scientific information about the hazard. But the knowledge of the hazard has not always translated well into measures that directly reduce economic loss and fatalities in earthquakes.
Following the L'Aquila earthquake, six scientists were convicted of manslaughter for failing to inform the public adequately of the earthquake risk. Although the charges were subsequently dropped, this marked a major development in the way blame is apportioned after large natural events, particularly with regard to effective hazard communication.
Numerous vulnerable buildings remain, and the recovery process is commonly plagued by long disruptions and inadequate government funding to recover rapidly. Both the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake and this most recent quake highlight just how important it is to translate hazard assessments into improving the resilience of infrastructure to strong shaking. The focus should remain on linking science, engineering and policy, this is often the biggest challenge globally.
Mike Sandiford receives funding from the Australian Research Council into earthquake related research.
Brendan Duffy and Mark Quigley do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.
Human impact on environment may be slowing down, study shows
Humanity’s environmental footprint has increased, but at a much slower rate compared to population and economic growth because of more efficient use of natural resources, reports Mongabay
Human activities have taken a heavy toll on our environment. But there may be some hope, researchers say.
Although human pressures continue to expand across our planet, their overall rate of increase is slower than the rates of population and economic growth, a new study published in Nature Communications has found.
Continue reading...Increase in Yellowstone visitors raises park's concerns over wildlife and safety
Park rangers reassess how to manage tourist violations, staff burnout and ‘animal jam’ as number of national park guests peaked to four million last year
Yellowstone national park is finding new ways to manage tourism after visits jumped by almost 600,000 between 2014 and 2015. After 15 years of steady growth, last year’s 4m visits was a tipping point, says park ranger Charissa Reid.
The park expects the number to rise in 2016. July is likely to be the first million-visit month in the park’s 144-year history.
Continue reading...Is depression a state of body not mind?
Bane of the oceans
Air pollution threat hidden as research 'presumes people are at home': study
Previous investigations fail to reveal impact of ‘world’s largest human health threat’ because they do not account for people’s movement, researchers say
The true impact of air pollution has been obscured by the failure to consider people’s exposure as they move around during the day, according to a new study that has mapped the hotspots of New York’s air pollution based on where people gather for work or recreation.
The research cites air pollution as “the world’s single largest environment and human health threat” but laments that the problem has not previously been “considered spatially and temporally”, with most studies basing a person’s pollution exposure on where they live.
Continue reading...Balkan countries unite in a war on waste
Trash activists from former war-torn countries formed some of the world’s largest cross-border civic movements against rubbish and pollution
Balkan countries once divided by war, nationalism and religion have been quietly uniting to confront a common foe: rubbish.
Under the rubric of the Let’s Do It campaign, Albanian and Kosovar activists jointly cleared their border area and the polluted Lake Vermica last April, in a Wombles-style campaign that has involved more than 5% of Albania’s population, and 7% of Kosovo’s.
Continue reading...Yuval Noah Harari: "We are probably one of the last generations of Homo sapiens."
The best and worst of worlds in my Kenya
Paula Kahumbu: When will we learn that wildlife conservation is part of wealth creation and not an obstacle to it?
Three days spent in Samburu Reserve to celebrate World Elephants Day with 91 children from Kenya’s poor neighbourhoods, slums and rural areas were probably the most moving experience of my life.
A team of staff, interns and volunteers from my NGO WildlifeDirect put on an ambitious three-day programme of discovery, play and learning for the children. The children experienced a real safari, in a four-wheeled-drive vehicle. They camped for the first time in their lives. They met wild animals in the wilderness of Samburu, and talked to rangers and scientists involved in wildlife conservation.
Continue reading...China unveils 2020 Mars mission probe and rover
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