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Global warming continues; 2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded | John Abraham
We will soon see a three-peat of record hot annual global temperatures
We know the world is warming – no factor can explain it aside from human emissions of greenhouse gases. Despite this, people who deny the basic facts of climate change have tried to argue that the Earth is either not warming or is only slowly heating. Well that just isn’t true anymore. The last three years are the nail in the coffin of the deniers of climate change. We have enough data this year to call 2016 as the hottest year ever record – and we have three more months left to go.
So, just how hot is 2016? Well my early predictions are shown in the graph below. I have taken temperature data from NASA and superimposed my predictions for 2016 – it isn’t even close. And by the way, it doesn’t matter whose data you use (NASA, NOAA, JMA, Hadley Centre) the results are the same. 2016 is going to blow 2015 out of the water.
Continue reading...Estimate of state-based renewable energy targets investment required
Review: Sonic Sea at the Environmental Film Festival
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The sounds of the sea are associated with tranquillity and relaxation. People go to the beach to enjoy the soothing crash of ocean waves. But beneath the surface of the ocean, there is no peace and quiet for whales and dolphins.
The increasing use of the sea for human activities has resulted in a dramatic rise in noise levels. A new film, Sonic Sea, screening at the Environmental Film Festival Australia, shows that the ocean is not at all silent. It highlights our emerging understanding of the consequences of human-produced noise pollution in the ocean.
The documentary, directed by Michelle Dougherty and Daniel Hinerfeld, brings together beautiful cinematography and audio effects that draw viewers into this ethereal underwater world.
When mammals returned to the sea, they evolved to use sound as their primary way to navigate through their environment. This is because sound travels further and more efficiently through water than air.
For marine mammals, using sound to communicate, and to see (echolocate), is invaluable. But this dependence by marine mammals on underwater sound is now a trap; they have nowhere to escape the increasing underwater noise.
Where does the noise come from?The film presents three major sources of human-produced noise in the ocean: shipping, seismic exploration, and military sonar.
Shipping noise is acoustically overwhelming the ocean, doubling every decade with no hint of slowing. Not only is the number of ships increasing, but they are also getting bigger and carrying more containers.
This noise reduces the distance over which animals can communicate with one another, forcing them to compete with increasing background noise.
Finding mates would become more difficult meaning whales may miss out on the opportunity to breed.
Alarmingly, this increasing noise has been shown to cause stress in the northern right whales, one of the world’s most endangered marine mammals. The situation can be likened to being in the audience at a rock concert without being able to leave.
Mass stranding events of beaked whales have been linked to the use of military sonar. It appears that these whales have a marked behavioural response to some types of sonar. This may be why the whales strand at times when military sonar has been used. This has raised serious concerns for the navy about whether, and where, this type of sonar can be used.
Even though seismic explosions, used by oil and gas companies, do not cause direct harm to whales, the blasts do drive them away from the area. Fish, on the other hand, are deafened by these detonations and we have seen a long-term drop in numbers with the prolonged use of seismic air guns.
Turning down the volumeThe film presents various solutions to help reduce the amount of noise that is generated and the impact caused to these vulnerable animals.
Our heavy reliance on ships for the transport of goods means we cannot simply stop their movement. But it is possible to implement quieter and more efficient engines and propellers to reduce noise.
Critical habitat such as feeding and breeding grounds, as well as migratory routes, need to be identified and protected.
When whales are present, harmful activities such as seismic blasts and sonar need to stop.
The film concludes by leaving viewers with the question: what would the world look like if we don’t reduce our impacts? It raises the question of sustainability and the legacy we will leave for future generations once we are gone.
Sonic Sea is screening at the Environmental Film Festival Australia in Sydney on Saturday October 22, 2016.
![The Conversation](https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/67458/count.gif)
Gary Truong is affiliated with UNSW Australia.
Tracey Rogers receives funding from Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with UNSW Australia.
Islabikes' radical new plan means you may never need to buy your child a bike again
Imagine Project sets out to cut waste in the industry by renting rather than selling bikes, which can then be returned and refurbished when the child outgrows them
The idea had been nagging at her for years, but Isla Rowntree went to the ends of the earth before she was finally ready to go ahead with something she hopes will revolutionise the way the bicycle industry is run.
This is the Imagine Project, currently being developed by Rowntree’s eponymous firm making children’s bicycles, Islabikes. It offers a simple but hugely innovative solution to reducing waste – bikes will be rented to customers rather than sold, and returned to the factory for refurbishment when their young rider outgrows them.
After coking plant's last gasp, a feast for nature
Rother valley, Derbyshire The malign dragon’s breath ceased, the air cleared, then a corner of the vast works became a nature reserve
As a boy, rushing south from Chesterfield on the train, I remember how the farmland was interrupted by the Avenue coking works breathing fire and acrid smoke like a malign dragon. Eight hundred people worked there, producing fuel for steel works, along with sulphuric acid and tar, in one of the most contaminated industrial sites in Europe.
Related: How industrial sites can play a key role in wildlife conservation
Continue reading...Snow leopards: Numbers decline due to 'retaliation'
We are approaching the Trumpocene, a new epoch where climate change is a big scary conspiracy | Graham Readfearn
Websites pushing climate science denial are growing their audience in an era where populist rhetoric and the rejection of expertise is gaining traction
For years now geologists have been politely but forcefully arguing over the existence or otherwise of a new epoch – one that might have started decades ago.
Some of the world’s most respected geologists and scientists reckon humans have had such a profound impact on the Earth that we’ve now moved out of the Holocene and into the Anthropocene.
Continue reading...The climate questions the next President should answer
A renewable fiction: Myths mainstream media refuses to let go
Hundreds of snow leopards being killed every year, report warns
Figure of 220-450 annual deaths could be even higher, as killings by poachers or farmers often go undetected in the remote mountains of central Asia
Hundreds of snow leopards are being killed every year across the mountains of central Asia, threatening the already endangered big cat, according to a new report.
There are as few as 4,000 of the solitary and elusive cat remaining and numbers have fallen by a fifth in the last 16 years.
Continue reading...Australian solar hot water installations top one million mark
Geodynamics changes focus to solar, storage and hybrid energy
Australia joins bid to outlaw large-scale commercial and 'scientific' whaling
International Whaling Commission meeting in Slovenia follows Japan’s recent slaughter of more than 300 minke whales
Australia has thrown its weight behind a bid to outlaw large-scale commercial and so-called “scientific” whaling at a summit next week.
The International Whaling Commission meeting in Slovenia follows Japan’s recent slaughter of more than 300 minke whales, many of them pregnant, when they resumed so-called scientific whaling after a hiatus because the International Court of Justice ruled the hunts were not scientific and should cease.
Continue reading...Carnegie secures $3.7m debt funding for wave-based microgrid
Former coal boss seeks approval for 300MW solar plant in Port Augusta
Are wind farms messing up the electricity market?
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While Australia’s energy market operator continues its investigation into South Australia’s recent state-wide blackout, there are important questions being asked.
For instance, was extreme weather the only cause? Has South Australia replaced fossil fuels with renewables too quickly?
And is the Australia’s Renewable Energy Target (RET) too ambitious all together?
It is impossible to find answers without understanding how the energy market works, and how replacing one source of energy with another actually happens.
How does the market work?Most Australians (barring the Northern Territory and Western Australia) get their electricity through the National Electricity Market.
Suppose all the energy users, at a particular day and time, switch on lights, computers, industrial machinery, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, traffic control equipment and more. Added together, they determine how much energy is needed or demanded at that very point in time.
On the other side of the poles and wires, different independent electricity generators – thermal, hydro, wind, solar – are offering energy to the market, each at a price enabling them to recover costs and make a reasonable profit. This is called bidding.
Contemporary electronic technology allows for the wholesale market to take electricity and bids every five minutes, and allocate amounts accepted from the successful bidders. And who are those successful bidders?
All current bids are ranked by unit price. Allocation starts from the lowest-price bidder, then the second lowest one, and continues on until the current demand is met. The last accepted bidder’s price becomes the spot market price, and allows other successful bidders to make more or less profit.
How do renewables affect the market?The main incentive policy for wind farms in Australia is the Renewable Energy Target (RET), which legislates that 33 gigawatt hours of electricity must come from renewable sources by 2020. As part of the RET, large-scale renewable energy generators (solar and wind farms) receive credits (certificates) for electricity they generate, which are then purchased by retailers to meet the target.
This market is separate to the National Electricity Market (NEM) and acts as a second income source for renewable energy generators.
With this in mind, we have modelled what happens when wind energy is phased into the market based on five minute electricity market data for several years.
The running (marginal) cost of wind generators is zero (because wind is free), unlike traditional thermal technology (which has to pay for coal and gas). Subsequently, wind generators recover their fixed costs and obtain profit in the difference between marginal cost and market price based on “more expensive” bids.
In the long run, wind generation decreases the market price through the bidding process. So with an increase in the energy volume generated by wind, the traditional sources are pushed out from the market. The chart below illustrates this process for South Australia.
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Because their fixed costs can be recovered through the RET, wind generators can bid at near zero prices and completely eliminate traditional competitors. Therefore, wind generation can only naturally exist in the market if there are other, more expensive forms of generation to set the price. Otherwise wind farms could not recover their costs without the RET.
This means that there is an optimal proportion of wind energy in the market, where more expensive thermal generators set the market price.
If there is an optimum amount of wind energy in the market, this has important consequences for the RET. The target artificially increases the proportion of wind energy that can be sustained in the grid. While this may be the goal of the RET, without the incentive, wind capacity would eventually fall back to the market optimum.
In practice, this would occur as wind farms reach their natural life of about 20 years and aren’t replaced. So the RET won’t maintain or increase wind energy in the market in the long term, unless the incentives continue indefinitely.
The current RET is legislated to 2030, with a target set for 2020. To encourage wind energy in the long term, it would be required, then, to support the RET by an ongoing financial inducement without a closing date.
Without any financial inducement, wind farm developers would not increase capacity beyond the optimal point, and some thermal generation will continue to exist. Thermal generation can be completely excluded only if all the fixed costs of wind energy can be recovered through the RET. This is impractical and beyond the intentions of the policy.
So as it stands, our modelling suggests the RET is not a good way to increase the amount of wind generation in the electricity network. However our conclusions are different for other renewable energy sources such as hydro, which also have near zero marginal costs but have much longer lifetimes.
Therefore, where and if possible, we need to use a mix of technology, rather than overemphasising wind generation technology.
This article was co-authored by Henry McMillan, masters candidate at Monash University focusing on regulatory and energy economics.
![The Conversation](https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/67244/count.gif)
Gennadi Kazakevitch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.
Spiders can 'tune' their webs to sound out plucky potential mates
Spiders can control their web’s tension and stiffness to help them identify potential partners as well as prey, study shows
Spiders can control the tension and stiffness of their webs to optimise their sensory powers, helping them locate and identify prey as well as partners, according to researchers at Oxford University.
Much in same way that notes travel along a plucked guitar string, spider silk transmits vibrations in different frequencies, sending information back to the spider.
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