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Australia’s energy sector must be the source of the bulk of emissions reductions achieved through to 2030 if we are to reach our national target.

Waltham Brooks, West Sussex The golden reed along the river’s edge vibrates with the pulsing, chattering songs of the warblers

It’s a cold morning, and a glistening coating of frost clings to the green surfaces of the vegetation that is still in the shade. The sun is reaching through the trees, and plumes of mist rise from the river’s surface as it warms.

The golden reed along the river’s edge vibrates with the pulsing, chattering songs of reed warblers and sedge warblers – the sound of a wetland summer. They began to return to Waltham Brooks about a month ago, and now I count more than 30 singing around the reserve. I hear a whirring from a sedge warbler in the brambles next to me, and I turn to watch as it inches up to the top of the bush.

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Repower Port Augusta and the Australian Services Union SA/NT have expressed solidarity with former power station workers and are calling on the Weatherill Government to bring a new future to Port Augusta.

Coalition appears to be rapidly backtracking on Paris climate treaty as ABC's Four Corners falls into the same trap of relying too heavily on lobbyists. They interviewed the wrong people.

US utility that’s been powering its customers with coal for half a century has decided the best version of its future self is entirely coal-free.

By 2030, you probably won’t own a car, but you may get a free trip with your morning coffee. Transport-As-A-Service will use electric vehicles and will upend two trillion-dollar industries. It’s the death spiral for cars.

Nissan says it has developed a prototype EV that can run 550km while keeping the cargo capacity, external dimension as current LEAF.

Gemini windpark off the coast of the Netherlands will eventually meet the energy needs of about 1.5 million people, according to its owners

Dutch officials have opened what is being billed as one of the world’s largest offshore wind farms, with 150 turbines spinning far out in the North Sea.

Over the next 15 years the Gemini windpark, which lies some 85km (53 miles) off the northern coast of the Netherlands, will meet the energy needs of about 1.5 million people.

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Rooftop solar installations in Australia continue record-breaking trend in first four months of 2017, with WA the biggest mover.

Defending decision not to finance mine, Brian Hartzer says coal needed for economy to 2050 can be met by existing mines

The Adani Carmichael coalmine is not needed to support the economy, the Westpac chief executive has said in defence of his bank’s decision not to finance the mine.

On Radio National on Tuesday, Brian Hartzer said Westpac’s decision to set a climate policy, which in effect rules out financing the Adani Carmichael coalmine, was based on its acceptance that climate change should be limited to 2C by 2050.

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Friends of the Earth urges other retailers to follow suit after studies show damaging effects of neonicotinoids on bees

All flowering plants sold by B&Q are to be grown without using pesticides that are harmful to bees, the retailer has announced.

A series of scientific studies have shown that bees are exposed to neonicotinoid pesticides in fields and suffer serious harm from the doses they receive. The European commission has drawn up draft legislation to ban the pesticides, citing “high acute risks to bees”.

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A new study shows how a switch in a major climate system could accelerate global temperatures to a 1.5C limit, but some scientists are challenging the assumptions

In the Brazilian city of São Paulo, more than 80 experts, including dozens of climate scientists, gathered back in March for a giant planning meeting

As part of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the group from 39 different countries were starting their work on a major report that will tell governments and policy makers what kind of impacts they can expect when global warming reaches 1.5C.

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The tropical Pacific has a large say in how fast the world warms. GTS Productions/Shutterstock.com

Global warming is rapidly approaching 1.5℃, but according to our new research, conditions in the Pacific Ocean over the coming decades will determine how fast we get there.

In a paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters, we use climate model simulations to quantify how fast global average temperatures will reach 1.5℃ above the pre-industrial average – one of the crucial benchmarks of the Paris Climate Agreement.

The Paris deal calls for governments to pursue the aim of keeping global warming below 1.5℃. But our results suggest that we could hit that level before the end of the next decade if the Pacific Ocean moves into a state we have nicknamed the “cranky uncle” for its effects on global temperatures.

Faster warming

Global temperature records have tumbled in recent years: 2016 was the world’s hottest year on record, the third record-breaking year in a row.

Although human emissions of greenhouse gases are the primary driver of these rising temperatures, there are other factors at play. The climate system is an unwieldy beast, containing a variety of erratic feedbacks and complex mechanisms.

One mechanism with which many people are familiar is El Niño and La Niña, a see-sawing of warm waters across the tropical Pacific every two to seven years. Climate scientists were not at all surprised to see record global temperatures in 2015 and 2016, because of the large El Niño that ended last year.

Another, lesser-known cycle in the Pacific Ocean is the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Since El Niño and La Niña are Spanish for the “the boy” and “the girl”, we have nicknamed their slower-moving relatives the “cranky uncle”, El Tío, and the “kind auntie”, La Tía.

Like El Niño, warm phases of the IPO provoke a temporary acceleration in global temperature, but over much longer periods, lasting between 10 and 30 years.

The cool La Tía phase of the IPO since around 2000, and its associated slowdown in the rate of global warming, may have lulled us into a false sense of security.

Scientists are now concerned that the next El Tío phase could be on its way, which might sustain the relatively rapid global warming seen over the past few years.

Our research

With this in mind, we decided to investigate how soon we are likely to surpass the 1.5℃ level, both with and without the influence of the IPO.

We used climate model simulations to project global temperatures. The models show temperatures varying significantly from year-to-year and decade-to-decade, as we see in the real world. The centre point of the model projections indicates that the 1.5℃ level would be reached just before 2030, with 75% of the model projections crossing 1.5℃ before 2032.

With the recent slowdown period in mind, we wondered how the next IPO phase, El Tío or La Tía, would influence global temperature. We found that the rate at which global average temperature approaches the 1.5℃ level is influenced significantly by the IPO.

The influence of the IPO on global temperatures towards 1.5°C. Author supplied

El Tío phases are responsible for an acceleration in global temperature. The centre point of the El Tío projections passes the 1.5℃ level in around 2027, and a quarter of our projections pass 1.5℃ as early as 2024.

For La Tía, the projected rate of warming is reduced, and the centre year is 2031 – the kind auntie gives us a little more breathing space.

So, is the Paris agreement a failure?

No. The Paris agreement is a critically important step in the right direction.

Although we will soon surpass the 1.5℃ warming benchmark, we still have a chance to turn around and head back down the hill. But to reduce global temperatures, we need not only to reduce our net emissions to zero, but to move swiftly into net negative carbon emissions territory. That means that overall we will need to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, not add more.

But we are a very long way from that point. There is a lot of work to do.

The implications of swiftly rising global temperature are many and varied. Our group and other scientists have quantified the changing likelihood of extreme events such as heatwaves, coral bleaching, droughts and floods.

For the next few decades we have to accept that we are likely to see more extreme events as the effect of continued rising global temperatures takes its toll.

We can’t hide from our cranky uncle, but we can limit climate change and its impacts. Although the political will for evidence-based climate policy seems to be waning in some quarters, the message from climate scientists has not changed:

We need swift global cooperation to dramatically reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Ben Henley receives funding from an ARC Linkage Project and is an associate investigator with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

Malte Meinshausen receives funding from an ARC Future Fellowship.

Delegates are wary of changing the Paris climate agreement just to keep the Americans on board.

After almost two years in orbit, the X-37B Orbit Test Vehicle has returned to Earth - but what has it been doing?

Locals at Dooagh, Achill island, had got used to their sandless beach, which storms in 1984 turned into just rocks and pools. But a freak tide at Easter has brought hundreds of tonnes of sand back to the bay off Ireland’s County Mayo coast

• Irish beach washed away 33 years ago reappears overnight after freak tide

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An ancient creature

What was the US Air Force's X-37B doing during its almost two years in orbit?

Cross-section of MPs urge £612m pension fund to show greater leadership and “take climate change seriously”

A campaign calling on parliament’s £612m pension fund to divest from fossil fuels has won the backing of 50 MPs from across the UK’s main political parties.

The Divest Parliament campaign has announced it has secured support from a cross-section of MPs from Labour, the Conservatives, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, SDLP and Plaid Cymru, who are all urging the Parliamentary Contributory Pension Fund (PCPF) to show greater leadership on tackling climate change.

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Administrator Scott Pruitt, in choosing not to renew nine members’ terms, has ‘eviscerated’ board of scientific counselors, says chair

The Environmental Protection Agency has “eviscerated” a key scientific review board by removing half its members and seeking to replace them with industry-aligned figures, according to the board’s chair.

Related: Worried world urges Trump not to pull out of Paris climate agreement

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