Feed aggregator

Claxton, Norfolk When the amount of aerial plankton in the atmosphere drops, the birds head for Africa

In natural history, it is easy to notice a first for the year, but to be mindful of the last is more difficult. I know that the house martins are gone, yet their going from our village entailed an unremarkable dwindling of sights and sounds, but slowly, like a loss of moisture in a puddle.

I did have one memorable sighting last week in the Yare valley. Over Blackwater, about 40 were pooled above a poplar plantation and in and out of their midst swirled a single lost swift. The martins were smaller, busier, each one with a swept-back wing silhouette, which, depending on the way it turned, was shaped like a broad smile, or frown.

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He may already had one, but prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has just been given a blueprint by the Trump administration on how to protect dirty "baseload" coal, and extend his fight against the energy future.

New Energy Solar Fund and New Energy Solar Limited are pleased to announce the financial close of an issue of US$62.5 million of senior secured 24-year amortising notes in the US private placement market.

Q3 was Tesla’s best quarter ever for deliveries but Model 3 deliveries were lower than anticipated, due to production restraints.

CEFC to provide all debt finance for Victoria's largest solar farm to "accelerate" project.

Origin gas deal underlines one of the main advantages of renewables: they provide security against rising fossil fuel prices.

Only asset write-downs will fix soaring prices, but policymakers and governments seem reluctant to unravel this welfare scheme for powerful incumbents.

Australia wind farms enjoy record output in September, with average capacity factor of 49.5% - significantly more than the Liddell coal generator.

Brisbane is set to become one of a handful of hubs around the world for sustainable aviation fuel.

Only one of four groups of Beavers in Argyll is showing signs of successful breeding.

Technology trials in Microgrid-as-a-Service aimed to impact the urban population in India.

As China's deadline to shut down its domestic ivory market approaches, the conservation group Save the Elephants says business has shifted to neighbouring Laos.

Regional variations in sea surface temperature, related to seasons and El Niño, could be crucial for the survival of coral reefs, according to our new research. This suggests that we should be able to identify the reefs most at risk of mass bleaching, and those that are more likely to survive unscathed.

Healthy coral reefs support diverse ecosystems, hosting 25% of all marine fish species. They provide food, coastal protection and livelihoods for at least 500 million people.

But global warming, coupled with other pressures such as nutrient and sediment input, changes in sea level, waves, storms, ventilation, hydrodynamics, and ocean acidification, could lead to the end of the world’s coral reefs in a couple of decades.

Read more: How much coral has died in the Great Barrier Reef’s worst bleaching event?

Climate warming is the major cause of stress for corals. The world just witnessed an event described as the “longest global coral die-off on record”, and scientists have been raising the alarm about coral bleaching for decades.

The first global-scale mass bleaching event happened in 1998, destroying 16% of the world coral reefs. Unless greenhouse emissions are drastically reduced, the question is no longer if coral bleaching will happen again, but when and how often?

To help protect coral reefs and their ecosystems, effective management and conservation strategies are crucial. Our research shows that understanding the relationship between natural variations of sea temperature and human-driven ocean warming will help us identify the areas that are most at risk, and also those that are best placed to provide safe haven.

A recurrent threat

Bleaching happens when sea temperatures are unusually high, causing the corals to expel the coloured algae that live within their tissues. Without these algae, corals are unable to reproduce or to build their skeletons properly, and can ultimately die.

The two most devastating global mass bleaching events on record – in 1998 and 2016 – were both triggered by El Niño. But when water temperatures drop back to normal, corals can often recover.

Certain types of coral can also acclimatise to rising sea temperatures. But as our planet warms, periods of bleaching risk will become more frequent and more severe. As a consequence, corals will have less and less time to recover between bleaching events.

We are already witnessing a decline in coral reefs. Global populations have declined by 1-2% per year in response to repeated bleaching events. Closer to home, the Great Barrier Reef lost 50% of its coral cover between 1985 and 2012.

A non-uniform response to warming

While the future of worldwide coral reefs looks dim, not all reefs will be at risk of recurrent bleaching at the same time. In particular, reefs located south of 15ºS (including the Great Barrier Reef, as well as islands in south Polynesia and Melanesia) are likely to be the last regions to be affected by harmful recurrent bleaching.

We used to think that Micronesia’s reefs would be among the first to die off, because the climate is warming faster there than in many other places. But our research, published today in Nature Climate Change, shows that the overall increase in temperature is not the only factor that affects coral bleaching response.

In fact, the key determinant of recurrent bleaching is the natural variability of ocean temperature. Under warming, temperature variations associated with seasons and climate processes like El Niño influence the pace of recurrent bleaching, and explain why some reefs will experience bleaching risk sooner than others in the future.

Different zones of the Pacific are likely to experience differing amounts of climate variability. Author provided Degrees of future bleaching risk for corals in the three main Pacific zones. Author provided

Our results suggest that El Niño events will continue to be the major drivers of mass bleaching events in the central Pacific. As average ocean temperatures rise, even mild El Niño events will have the potential to trigger widespread bleaching, meaning that these regions could face severe bleaching every three to five years within just a few decades. In contrast, only the strongest El Niño events will cause mass bleaching in the South Pacific.

In the future, the risk of recurrent bleaching will be more seasonally driven in the South Pacific. Once the global warming signal pushes summer temperatures to dangerously warm levels, the coral reefs will experience bleaching events every summers. In the western Pacific, the absence of natural variations of temperatures initially protects the coral reefs, but only a small warming increase can rapidly transition the coral reefs from a safe haven to a permanent bleaching situation.

Read more: Feeling helpless about the Great Barrier Reef? Here’s one way you can help

One consequence is that, for future projections of coral bleaching risk, the global warming rate is important but the details of the regional warming are not so much. The absence of consensus about regional patterns of warming across climate models is therefore less of an obstacle than previously thought, because globally averaged warming provided by climate models combined with locally observed sea temperature variations will give us better projections anyway.

Understanding the regional differences can help reef managers identify the reef areas that are at high risk of recurring bleaching events, and which ones are potential temporary safe havens. This can buy us valuable time in the battle to protect the world’s corals.

Clothilde Emilie Langlais was funded by the Pacific Australian Climate Science and Adaptation Program funded by AusAid.

Scott Heron receives funding and support from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Satellites division (NESDIS) and Coral Reef Conservation Program, and is affiliated with James Cook University. The contents in this piece are solely the opinions of the authors and do not constitute a statement of policy, decision or position on behalf of NOAA or the U.S. Government.

Andrew Lenton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

As horizontal drilling starts in Lancashire this month, the Guardian talks to protesters and staff at the Cuadrilla well

Mike Hill, sitting in his living room a few miles from a fracking site outside Blackpool, is brandishing a government letter brushing aside his concerns about the industry. “You, Theresa May, overruled democracy to force fracking on the residents of Fylde,” he says, referring to his own letter to the prime minister, in which he urges her to heed experts’ calls for tighter shale gas regulations.

“And then you won’t pay attention, the slightest attention, to anybody in regards fracking regulation, fracking monitoring, public health risks, risks to indigenous industries,” says the chartered engineer, who used to work in the oil and gas sector.

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Michael Gove wants views on whether a "reward and return" system would improve recycling in England.

Environment secretary says working group will look at how a deposit return scheme could help reduce plastic waste in England

A deposit return scheme aimed at slashing plastic pollution has moved significantly closer after environment secretary Michael Gove said he would work with the industry to see how a scheme can be implemented in England.

Gove, speaking at the Conservative party conference in Manchester, announced a four-week call for views to inform how a deposit return scheme (DRS) would be designed. The government’s working group on the issue will also consider DRS for metal and glass containers.

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Bristol’s open-air arts trail sees large-scale images of ocean life by some of the world’s leading wildlife photographers come to the city’s suburbs, to raise awareness of the species and their fight for survival

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Use separate bags for raw foods, ready-to-eat foods, and household products to avoid bacteria spreading, warns food safety watchdog

Reusable “bags for life” can spread deadly food poisoning bacteria if they are used to carry raw foods such as fish and meat, consumers have been warned by the government’s food safety watchdog.

In revised guidance on its website, the Food Standards Agency (FSA) is recommending that shoppers use separate bags to carry raw foods, ready-to eat foods and non-food items such as household cleaners and washing powder.

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Understanding how our bodies keep time has "vast implications" for health, say Nobel committee.

There will be further autumnal signs in the northern hemisphere now October has shown up, while the southern hemisphere can finally begin to enjoy springtime. We’d like to see your photos of this month’s wildlife near you

For the northern hemisphere the leaves will only get browner, and the ground frostier, with October signalling a further shift towards the colder darker winter months ahead. For the southern hemisphere the month should be pleasant, with new signs of life emerging in the wild and warmer spring sunshine to be enjoyed by all. So what sort of wildlife will we all discover on our doorsteps? We’d like to see your photos of the October wildlife near you.

Share your photos and videos with us and we’ll feature our favourites on the Guardian site.

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