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Winter warmth is in the forecast (but don't celebrate yet)
It might feel nippy, but look out for winter heatwaves. REUTERS/David GrayThe Bureau of Meteorology has issued its seasonal forecast for the winter, and it should be a warm one throughout southern Australia and the very tips of the Top End.
After a warm autumn, particularly in the east, this winter is forecast to be warmer and drier than usual – especially over the southern half of the continent.
Warmer-than-average conditions are likely for most of Australia.
Bureau of Meteorology
Not your everyday weather forecast
Seasonal forecasts are very different from your standard weather forecast for the day or week ahead.
Instead of giving exact temperatures or rainfall totals, the bureau provides probabilities of above or below average conditions. So if the bureau says there’s a 70% chance of above-average temperatures, that’s the same as saying there’s a 30% chance it will be below average.
These probabilities are estimated by looking at what’s going on in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as they strongly influence Australia’s weather, and by running a set, or “ensemble”, of forecasts through the bureau’s seasonal forecast model.
A very different winter from last yearLooking back to last year, while most of Australia experienced quite a warm winter, it was also very wet. Nationally, it was the second-wettest winter on record, with the centre and the east of the continent copping the brunt of the rain. Last winter’s weather was driven by very warm seas in the east Indian Ocean, which meant a lot more moisture was available to deliver rainfall across the country.
Last winter was very wet for the east, although dry around Perth.
Bureau of Meteorology
This year we are seeing roughly average temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and a slight El Niño in the Pacific. This increases the likelihood of warmer, drier weather for the winter as a whole.
Winter heatwaves on the waySo can we expect to keep the thick coats in the wardrobe and enjoy some winter warmth? Perhaps.
Of course, winter heatwaves aren’t going to bring 40℃ days to Melbourne and Sydney, but we could get warm spells and temperatures into the low twenties in Sydney or the high teens in Melbourne.
It’s also worth noting that the seasonal forecast only looks at whether we’re going to have temperatures above or below average. It’s harder to predict whether we will see bursts of heat, or if the weather will consistently be a little bit warmer than normal through much of the season.
We’ve seen an increase in heatwaves in late autumn and winter in Australia over the past few decades. Notably, in May 2014 Sydney and large areas of southeast Australia had much-warmer-than-average conditions. A study found that this heat event was made at least 20 times more likely by the human influence on the climate.
We’re also seeing trends towards less frequent cold conditions in winter, with frosts becoming much rarer over a substantial part of Australia. Most of Australia is also experiencing fewer cold days. These trends are in line with what we expect from climate change, and are projected to continue.
Australia’s experiencing fewer frosty nights than it used to.
Bureau of Meteorology
While winter warmth can be pleasant for most of us, it can also cause plenty of problems. Warmer and drier winters can worsen drought – an effect we saw during the Millennium Drought in southeast Australia – by increasing evaporation and reducing soil moisture.
So while many of us in the south will gladly welcome a warm winter, it’s not good news for everyone. If warm and dry conditions were to persist into spring and summer – which is a distinct possibility with an El Niño watch in place – that would pose even more problems in terms of bushfire prevention, among other hazards.
Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
UK must use its trade policy to tackle climate change | Letters
As the Trump administration prepares to withdraw the US from the Paris agreement, we believe the UK must use its trade policy to reaffirm and strengthen a globally coordinated response to climate change – one of the greatest challenges humanity has ever faced. As such, we call on the next UK government to:
• Require ratification of the Paris agreement and a commitment to its goal of avoiding more than 1.5 degrees of warming as a precondition for entering into trade and investment agreements with the UK.
Continue reading...European leaders urged to scale up efforts to tackle climate change
Campaigners in call to action as it emerges EU does not intend to make extra cuts to account for US withdrawal from Paris deal
European leaders have been urged to scale up their efforts to tackle climate change as it emerged the EU does not intend to make extra emissions’ cuts to fill the gap left by the withdrawal of the US from the Paris agreement.
At a summit with China in Brussels last week, the EU responded to the decision by Donald Trump to pull out of the historic 2015 pact by vowing to take on a leadership role in the fight to halt global warming.
Continue reading...Food waste charity may be prosecuted over out-of-date produce
Real Junk Food Project co-founder summoned to formal hearing after trading standards inspection at Leeds premises
A charity that campaigns against food waste may face prosecution after trading standards found produce that was past its use-by date at one of its warehouses.
The Real Junk Food Project – which has 127 affiliated cafes worldwide – aims to combat food waste by collecting produce that would otherwise be thrown away and preparing it for the general public.
Continue reading...Ranching life on the high plains of Montana – in pictures
Elliott D Woods spent time in Phillips County in northern Montana, where public land is a source of life to which ranchers are intimately connected. If the plan to transfer lands to the states succeeds, it will mean a radical restructuring of the economy and the culture of the west
Continue reading...In Montana, land transfer threatens the American rancher's way of life
Ranchers in the west have been struggling for decades. Now a new threat looms: public land might be taken away from them
If you want to appreciate the prairie landscape that inspired President Theodore Roosevelt to set aside 230 million acres as national land, you have to pull off the interstate somewhere in the Dakotas, or in the eastern third of Montana, Wyoming, or Colorado. Follow a dirt road for a few miles, roll down your windows, and shut off your engine. Do this almost any time of day, preferably in springtime. Above and below ground, the prairies are humming with life: birds, rodents, snakes, pronghorn, badgers and coyotes, rioting amid a landscape of grass and sagebrush.
Continue reading...The great public land giveaway: five Republicans leading the charge
A small but vocal cohort is leading efforts to transfer federal land to the states. Is your congressional representative on the list?
The Trump administration has so far attempted to shrink the federal government’s role in healthcare, environmental protection – and even meals on wheels. Some Republicans now see another area ripe for giveaway: public lands.
During the Obama administration, Republicans made numerous attempts to open up federal lands for development or cede control of areas to the states. This push was largely made by representatives from a couple of western states, where the federal government manages roughly half of all land.
Continue reading...Two rangers shot dead in Kenya’s Laikipia conservation area
The rangers, who are police reservists, were killed while trying to recover cattle stolen by nomadic herders
Two game rangers have been shot dead in Kenya’s restive north while on a mission to recover stolen cattle.
For the last year, Laikipia, one of Kenya’s most important wildlife regions, has been the scene of vicious farm invasions and battles between private ranch owners and communities bordering them.
Continue reading...Climate change progress at Trump's EPA is grinding to a halt, workers reveal
Current and former staff say projects that mention climate change have been ‘de-emphasized and halted’ as EPA tears up key planks of emissions-lowering agenda
Current and former Environmental Protection Agency employees have described how work on climate change is grinding to a halt at the agency, with programs being scrapped and fears that staff may be reassigned away from climate-related tasks.
The Trump administration is tearing up key planks of Barack Obama’s emissions-lowering agenda, with the president withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement last week and tasking the EPA with rewriting the Clean Power Plan, which aims to curb greenhouse gases from coal-fired power plants.
Continue reading...Liberals have a responsibility too: make climate change a top issue
For too long, liberals have been treating climate change as a third or fourth tier issue. As the US exits the Paris Climate Accord, it’s time for liberals to re-evaluate an issue that subsumes all others.
On Thursday when the announcement hit that Trump was taking America out of the Paris Climate Accord, my social media feed predictably blew up. As an environmental journalist with a lot of left-leaning friends, you can imagine what it looked like: anger, frustration, shock, sadness, another outrage from the world’s most outrageous leader. All of a sudden every one I knew was talking about climate change; I’ll admit it was a nice change of pace, but after nearly ten years of covering climate change I also knew it would be fleeting.
Liberals have been the champions of climate action for decades, but they’ve largely championed it as an after thought, something that comes near the end of a long to-do list, like the brussels sprouts you conveniently forget to pick up at the grocery store (polling bears this out). When I bring up climate change during chats with left-leaning friends, I often get that pause – that suspended moment – when I can see someone in the group look askance. I can see what they’re thinking, “Again, Jeremy, with the climate change?”
Continue reading...The day after withdrawing from Paris, Trump declared a flooding disaster in Missouri | John Abraham
The state, hit hard by global warming-intensified flooding, has elected numerous climate-denying politicians
I was debating this article. Should I write about the news that just occurred, or the news that will occur soon? I chose the past event – flooding in Missouri, USA. I will save the soon-to-collapse Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica for my next article.
It’s sad, but true, that there are mounting ironies around Trump’s scientific ignorance on climate change and his ditching of the Paris Accord to reduce global warming. Scientists know the Earth is warming and that humans are the cause. One consequence of the warming is that weather is becoming more extreme. This means we are getting more extreme storms, including rain and floods. As our nation and the world suffers from the extreme weather, we can reflect on how things could have been different had our politicians heeded the warnings.
Continue reading...Planet is 'hotter than most stars'
Adani gives its green light to Carmichael coal mine
Four shopping centres to go behind the meter in major commercial solar deal
Close encounters of the furred kind: alien butt spider and friends – in pictures
Funnel web, trapdoor and redback spiders: their names alone are enough to provoke a thigh-clenching chill in most of us. A new publication from the CSIRO, A Field Guide to Spiders of Australia, attempts to change this. ‘No one has actually died from a spider bite in Australia for more than 30 years, but plenty of people have been injured panicking at the sight of a huntsman.’
Authors Robert Whyte and Greg Anderson have produced a comprehensive guide, introducing the reader to fabulously named species like sparklemuffins, the alien butt spider, disco mirror ball spiders and dancing peacock spiders. Here are a small selection of the 1,350 photographs from the book.
Continue reading...Goldwind to build 144MW wind farm in Tasmania
First Australian export LNG plant could close within 3 years
Queensland’s dance with the devil – its own coal and gas assets
AEMC takes baby steps to future grid, where solar and storage “optimised”
Return of the avian master builders
Claxton, Norfolk Every year the house martins check properties for suitable nest sites, even examining our nonexistent eaves
As if minted out of the soil that morning, suddenly house martins were around our garden a fortnight ago. Every year the pairs in the village perform an almost ritualised house inspection, when they check properties for suitable nest sites.
Every time they tantalise me by swooping to examine even our nonexistent eaves. Then they fuss about the gable end to our neighbour’s. Were they ever to choose the last spot, which looks perfect to my unbirdlike eyes, it would bring their distillate of African sunshine to within metres of my office.
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