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Environmental group 4nature has dismissed as fear-mongering an article in The Australian on Tuesday that claimed its court action threatens the closure of the Mt Piper power station.

Hurricane Irma (now downgraded to a tropical storm) caused widespread devastation as it passed along the northern edge of the Caribbean island chain and then moved northwards through Florida. The storm’s long near-coastal track exposed a large number of people to its force.

At its peak, Hurricane Irma was one of the most intense ever observed in the North Atlantic. It stayed close to that peak for an unusually long period, maintaining almost 300km per hour winds for 37 hours.

Both of these factors were predicted a few days in advance by the forecasters of the US National Hurricane Center. These forecasts relied heavily on modern technology - a combination of computer models with satellite, aircraft and radar data.

Read more: Irma and Harvey: very different storms, but both affected by climate change

Forecasting is getting better

Although Irma was a very large and intense storm, and many communities were exposed to its force, our capacity to manage and deal with these extreme weather events has saved many lives.

There are many reasons for this, including significant construction improvements. But another important factor is much more accurate forecasts, with a longer lead time. When Tropical Cyclone Tracy devastated Darwin in 1974, the Bureau of Meteorology could only provide 12-hour forecasts of the storm’s track, giving residents little time to prepare.

These days, weather services provide three to five days’ advance warning of landfall, greatly improving our ability to prepare. What’s more, today’s longer-range forecasts are more accurate than the short-range forecasts of a few decades ago.

We have also become better at communicating the threat and the necessary actions, ensuring that an appropriate response is made.

The improvement in forecasting tropical cyclones (known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic region, and typhoons in the northwest Pacific) hasn’t just happened by good fortune. It represents the outcome of sustained investment over many years by many nations in weather satellites, faster computers, and the science needed to get the best out of these tools.

Tropical cyclone movement and intensity is affected by the surrounding weather systems, as well as by the ocean surface temperature. For instance, when winds vary significantly with height (called wind shear), the top of the storm attempts to move in a different direction from the bottom, and the storm can begin to tilt. This tilt makes the storm less symmetrical and usually weakens it. Irma experienced such conditions as it moved northwards from Cuba and onto Florida. But earlier, as it passed through the Caribbean, a low-shear environment and warm sea surface contributed to the high, sustained intensity.

In Irma’s case, forecasters used satellite, radar and aircraft reconnaissance data to monitor its position, intensity and size. The future track and intensity forecast relies heavily on computer model predictions from weather services around the world. But the forecasters don’t just use this computer data blindly – it is checked against, and synthesised with, the other data sources.

In Australia, government and industry investment in supercomputing and research is enabling the development of new tropical cyclone forecast systems that are more accurate. They provide earlier warning of tropical cyclone track and intensity, and even advance warning of their formation.

Still hard to predict destruction

Better forecasting helps us prepare for the different hazards presented by tropical cyclones.

The deadliest aspects of tropical cyclones are storm surges (when the sea rises and flows inland under the force of the wind and waves) and flooding from extreme rainfall, both of which pose a risk of drowning. Worldwide, all of the deadliest tropical cyclones on record featured several metres’ depth of storm surge, widespread freshwater flooding, or both.

Wind can severely damage buildings, but experience shows that even if the roof is torn off, well-constructed buildings still provide enough shelter for their occupants to have an excellent chance of surviving without major injury.

By and large, it is the water that kills. A good rule of thumb is to shelter from the wind, but flee from the water.

Windy.com combines weather data from the Global Forecast System, North American Mesoscale and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to create a live global weather map.

This means that predicting the damage and loss caused by a tropical cyclone is hard, because it depends on both the severity of the storm and the vulnerability of the area it hits.

Hurricane Katrina in 2005 provides a good illustration. Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it made landfall over New Orleans, about as intense at landfall as Australian tropical cyclones Vance, Larry and Yasi. Yet Katrina caused at least 1,200 deaths and more than $US100 billion in damage, making it the third deadliest and by far the most expensive storm in US history. One reason was Katrina’s relatively large area, which produced a very large storm surge. But the other factor was the extraordinary vulnerability of New Orleans, with much of the city below normal sea level and protected by levées that were buried or destroyed by the storm surge, leading to extensive deep flooding.

We have already seen with Hurricane Irma that higher sea levels have exacerbated the sea surge. Whatever happens in the remainder of Irma’s path, it will already be remembered as a spectacularly intense storm, and for its very significant impacts in the Caribbean and Florida. One can only imagine how much worse those impacts would have been had the populations not been forewarned.

But increased population and infrastructure in coastal areas and the effects of climate change means we in the weather forecast business must continue to improve. Forewarned is forearmed.

Andrew Dowdy is working on a project funded through the National Environmental Science Programme (NESP) Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub.

Jeffrey David Kepert does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Science is laying bare the secrets of orchids, one of the biggest families of flowering plant.

Exclusive: new tests are intended to close loopholes but cars can still emit excess fumes in slow traffic, data shows

New “real world” emissions tests fail to prevent high levels of pollution from diesel cars during rush hour, according to new data.

Diesel vehicles are the main cause of the UK’s widespread levels of illegal air pollution, with the VW cheating scandal exposing the fact that virtually all diesel cars emitted far more toxic fumes than in official laboratory based tests. Since 1 September, new models must now be tested on real roads, but the new data shows even this does not prevent high levels of fumes in slow traffic, when pollution is at its worst for drivers and other road users.

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People must be told where the government’s badger culling programme will take place, say Jonathon Porritt, Mark Jones, Alick Simmons and Chris Cheeseman. Plus an alternative to shooting badgers suggested by David Hurry

Thousands more badgers are to be killed in new and extended government-licensed control zones (Huge rise in badger culling will see up to 33,500 animals shot, 12 September).

The government believes badger killing will eliminate bovine tuberculosis but won’t publish details of the zones, arguing public safety might be compromised. However, much of the killing takes place on land to which the citizen has some access. Disclosure would equip citizens to make informed judgments about their safety and that of their pets and about whether the shooting and trapping in their own backyard is legal or not. They could then engage in legitimate protest about the systematic killing of our native wildlife – in short, ensuring licence holders and the government can be held to account.

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A ‘monster’ blockage has been discovered in London sewers and wet wipes are a major contributor. But from makeup removal to household cleaning, what should we be using instead?

Images of melting icebergs have long proved inspirational to environmentalists and politicians seeking to mitigate the threat of man-made climate change. So why is it that images of giant fatbergs clogging our sewers can’t seem to stop people flushing wet wipes down the loo?

These fatty underground tumours, comprised largely of wipes, nappies and cooking grease, have proliferated, backing up plumbing systems as far afield as New York City, San Francisco and Sydney. This month, a 130-tonne fatberg stretching the length of two football pitches was revealed during a routine inspection of the ageing sewage pipes beneath Whitechapel, in east London. Weighing about the same as a medium-sized jetliner, the fatberg is among the largest ever found and, left unchecked, could have sent a deluge of raw sewage on to the streets of London. Thames Water’s sewer chief Matt Rimmer described it as “a total monster” that would take three weeks to clear with shovels and high-powered water jets.

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Mayor Sadiq Khan announces first 50 schools to undergo audits to help identify measures to minimise the impact of pollution on children

The most polluted schools in London are to be audited as part of the mayor’s drive to clean up toxic air across the capital.

Earlier this year a Guardian investigation revealed that hundreds of thousands of children are being exposed to illegal levels of damaging air pollution from diesel vehicles at schools and nurseries.

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Queen's University scientists design a flexible long-life battery that could be used in pacemakers.

Berries are appearing early this year - and promise to last much longer than usual, according to experts.

Exclusive: As global demand for chocolate booms, ‘dirty’ beans from deforested national parks have entered big business supply chains

• ‘Once this was all trees, but they burned them to plant cocoa’: the ruin of West Africa’s rainforest
  

The world’s chocolate industry is driving deforestation on a devastating scale in West Africa, the Guardian can reveal.

Cocoa traders who sell to Mars, Nestlé, Mondelez and other big brands buy beans grown illegally inside protected areas in the Ivory Coast, where rainforest cover has been reduced by more than 80% since 1960.

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The proposed closure date for AGL’s ancient and unreliable coal power station, is five years and probably two elections away.

Sunswift Violet solar race car experienced a mishap while undergoing race testing at the Sydney Motorsport speedway in Eastern Creek late on Tuesday, postponing the unveiling.

London's water authorities are working against the clock to dissolve a massive blob of hardened waste that's blocking a section of the city's sewer system.

Has internal division over energy policy inside the Coalition caused the Government to drift away from the Finkel recommendations?

Lake Liddell with power stations. Wikimedia commons

The proposed closure date for Liddell, AGL’s ancient and unreliable coal power station, is five years and probably two elections away. While AGL has asked for 90 days to come up with a plan to deliver equivalent power into the market, state and local governments, businesses and households will continue to drive the energy revolution.

At the same time as AGL is insisting they won’t sell Liddell or extend its working life, government debate has returned to the Clean Energy Target proposed by the Finkel Review. Now Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is suggesting a redesign of the proposal, potentially paving the way for subsidies to low-emission, high-efficiency coal power stations.

But even if subsidies for coal are built into a new “reliable energy target”, there’s no sign that the market has any appetite for building new coal. For a potential investor in a coal-fired generator, the eight years before it could produce a cash flow is a long time in a rapidly changing world. And the 30 years needed to turn a profit is a very long time indeed.

Read more: The true cost of keeping the Liddell power plant open

We also need to remember that baseload coal power stations are not much help in coping with peak demand – the issue that will determine whether people in elevators are trapped by a sudden blackout, per Barnaby Joyce. It was interesting that a Melbourne Energy Institute study of global pumped hydro storage mentioned that electricity grids with a lot of nuclear or coal baseload generation have used pumped storage capacity for decades: it’s needed to supply peak demand.

Solar power is driving down daytime prices – which used to provide much of the income that coal plants needed to make a profit. Energy storage will further reduce the scope to profit from high and volatile electricity prices, previously driven by high demand and supply shortages in hot weather, or when a large coal-fired generator failed or was shut down for maintenance at a crucial time.

Read more: Slash Australians’ power bills by beheading a duck at night

There is now plenty of evidence that the diverse mix of energy efficiency, demand response, energy storage, renewable generation and smart management can ensure reliable and affordable electricity to cope with daily and seasonal variable electricity loads. New traditional baseload generators will not be financially viable, as they simply won’t capture the profits they need during the daytime.

The government is now focused on AGL and how it will deliver 1,000 megawatts of new dispatchable supply. In practice, appropriate policy action would facilitate the provision of plenty of supply, storage, demand response and energy efficiency to ensure reliable supply. But the government is unable to deliver policy because of its internal squabbles, and AGL looks like a convenient scapegoat.

Demand response is already working

It is astounding that conservatives can continue to blame renewable energy for increasing prices. They are either ignorant or have outdated agendas to prop up coal. A smart, efficient, renewable electricity future will be cheaper than any other – albeit not necessarily cheaper than our past electricity prices.

Along with other studies, CSIRO’s recent Low Emission Technology Roadmap showed that the “ambitious energy productivity (and renewable energy)” scenario was quite reasonably priced.

While the debate continues to focus on large-scale supply, “behind the meter” action is accelerating through demand response, energy efficiency and on-site renewables. As I mentioned in a previous column, the ARENA/AEMO demand response pilot has attracted almost 700MW of flexible demand reduction to be delivered before Christmas, and another 1,000MW by December 2018. That’s nearly as much as Liddell could supply flat out. And there’s plenty more where that came from.

Spending a few hundred million dollars to prop up an old coal plant for a few years would shift it to the high-cost end of coal generators. So when prices fall, it would be one of the first coal plants to have to shut down, and among the last to come back online when prices rebound. This would add to the stress on the facility and the management challenges of operating it – unless it had preferential cheap access to a lot of pumped hydro capacity.

In the medium to long term, we do need to work out how to supply electricity for 24/7 industries but, according to AEMO, this is not urgent. We don’t know how much of that kind of industry will be here in ten years or so, given high gas prices, the age of their industrial plants, and their relatively small scale relative to their international competitors.

On the other hand, they may adapt by investing in behind-the-meter measures. Or they could relocate to sunny places and be part of what the economist Ross Garnaut has called the “low-carbon energy superpower”.

Disclosure

Alan Pears has worked for government, business, industry associations public interest groups and at universities on energy efficiency, climate response and sustainability issues since the late 1970s. He is now an honorary Senior Industry Fellow at RMIT University and a consultant, as well as an adviser to a range of industry associations and public interest groups. His investments in managed funds include firms that benefit from growth in clean energy. He has shares in Hepburn Wind.

The Australian Renewable Energy Agency says it is seeking ideas to help it explore Australia’s potential to export renewable energy in forms such as hydrogen – a goal that has attracted the interest of japanese trading giants and leading players such as economist Ross Garrnaut and ex CEFC boss Oliver Yates. ARENA said on Wednesday it […]

Federal government has trampled over several key Finkel measures it supposedly has adopted. But as experts plead with Coalition to allow AEMO and Energy Security Board to get on with job, Turnbull may deliver Abbott's wish, and kill new renewable projects.

Innovative EnergyAustralia pilot scheme allows solar customers to trade excess rooftop PV generation with MCG, in exchange for VIP stadium experiences.

South Australia has set a new record low for grid electricity demand, thanks to its increasing supply of rooftop solar.

Ministers are thought to be planning to offer £3m for initiatives such as solar panels on social housing

Green energy projects run by cities and local authorities around the UK stand to receive millions of pounds of government support, providing another fillip for renewable power just a day after the subsidised price of windfarms hit a record low.

The Guardian understands that ministers this autumn will offer more than £3m to help local leaders build low carbon initiatives, such as installing solar panels on social housing.

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