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As the world becomes more connected, invasive species are spreading further. While these species pose threats to our ecosystems, they arguably pose an even greater threat to our agriculture and food security.

Insect pests such as silverleaf whitefly, Asian gypsy moth, and Khapra beetle, are all ranked as major threats and can have significant and far-reaching impacts on agriculture and forest industries around the world.

Many researchers have looked at individual pests to assess their potential threat to particular countries. But no one has ever looked at the invasive threat from a large number of invasive species on agricultural systems at the global level.

Today we have published a paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which attempts to do this. We assessed almost 1,300 insect pests and fungal pathogens. We looked at where they are currently found, trade between those countries, and which crops in each country are vulnerable to attack from these species.

For each country, we estimated the potential impact of those invasive species on their agricultural industries. The most vulnerable countries are developing nations, with sub-Saharan African countries in particular being the most vulnerable, as you can see in the map below.

Our research identified the country’s most threatened by invasive species to be from sub-Saharan Africa. CSIRO Arrival

We combined a great deal of information to estimate a country’s vulnerability to invasive species, such as the global distribution of invasive species, the direction of trade data between countries, the types and value of crops grown in each country, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of each country.

We assessed each country individually, and identified which of the 1,300 pest species were not currently found there. We then determined whether any of those species are known to have an impact on any of the crops grown in that country.

If a species was known to have an impact, we then looked at which countries that species was found in and if the country in question traded with any of those countries.

If it did, we estimated how likely it is that species could travel to the country in question based on the level of trade (this has been repeatedly shown to be correlated to the number of invasive species in a region).

Establishment

If a species could arrive at a country, the next question was whether it could establish. To determine how likely it would be for a species to establish, we used a novel method, which uses artificial intelligence to compare the source country with the target country.

The method (called a “self organizing map”) compares the collection of species present in each country to determine how similar the two countries are. The more similar they are, the more likely it is that a species from one country could establish in another. The map is able to simultaneously analyse thousands of species and hundreds of countries, making a global analysis possible.

Impact

Once we’d figured out if a species could arrive and establish, we wanted an estimate of potential impact. Economic impact is very difficult to estimate even just for one species in one location and the data was simply not available for us at the global level.

As an alternative, we identified the impact of 140 of our 1,300 species and used this to represent the range of possible impacts. We used this to estimate the impact of all the other species on every crop in every country.

Vulnerability

Once we’d done this for every species in every country, we put these together to get an estimate of the total potential impact of all invasive species that could invade a particular country.

We found that invasive species would have the largest potential impact on the US and China. This isn’t surprising: these two countries not only have the largest agricultural economies, but also have the largest trade values.

But they are also huge economies with many other economic sectors, so we wanted to know which countries are most vulnerable to the impact of invasion from these species.

We assumed that a country’s GDP represents how much money a country has available to either prevent species from arriving, or to manage them if they do arrive and establish. By dividing the potential impact of invasive species by a country’s GDP, we could get an estimate of its vulnerability.

The larger the impact of invasive species and the smaller the GDP, the more vulnerable a country is. Sub-Saharan countries such as Malawi, Burundi, Guinea, Mozambique, and Ethiopia were all ranked in the top ten for vulnerability.

This is mainly because these countries tend to have narrow economies that are heavily dependent on agriculture and so are more vulnerable than developed countries with more diverse economies, where agriculture is only one of a large number of industries that contribute to the overall wealth of the country.

As trade volumes continue to increase and more trade connections are made between countries it could be argued that the pressures from invasive species will only intensify. The spread of invasive species is a shared responsibility at the global level, and those countries most vulnerable to these invasions will need the most help in combating them.

Dean Paini has received funding from the CRC for Plant Biosecurity.

Cassandra Leigh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Survey shows a majority of Chinese tourists and about a third of US and UK visitors will travel to somewhere other than Australia

If the bleaching continues on the Great Barrier Reef, tourists say they will pack their bags and go elsewhere, taking with them an estimated $1bn a year and costing 10,000 jobs in regional Queensland, according to a new poll.

The majority of Chinese tourists, and about a third of UK and US tourists, said if severe bleaching continues, and “some of the reef dies completely,” they would be more likely to visit somewhere other than Australia, according to the online polling of more than 4,000 people commissioned by the Australia Institute

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Experts in Malawi will move 500 elephants 185 miles across the country to a sanctuary that will act as a ‘reservoir’

Wildlife experts in Malawi will next month start moving up to 500 elephants to a sanctuary that they hope could eventually serve as a reservoir to restore some elephant populations in other parts of Africa where the threatened species has been heavily poached.

The massive relocation, slated for completion next year, will involve darting the elephants from a helicopter, hoisting the slumbering animals by crane and loading them in crates on to trucks for a ride of about 185 miles (300km) to Malawi’s Nkhotakota wildlife reserve.

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Today is a once in a lifetime event: the longest day of the year, first day of summer and a full ‘strawberry’ moon – which means it’s time to go outside

• Strawberry moon solstice: last seen during 1967’s summer of love

As if today being Monday wasn’t bad enough, it’s also the longest day of the year. Now, if you’ve spent the last nine months shuttling between your office and your apartment glimpsing only a smidgeon of sunshine in between, all this extra daytime can come as a shock. Suddenly it’s not quite so acceptable to spend your free time in a dark room watching Netflix ignoring everyone except the delivery person. You have to go outside and do outside stuff. You have to, you know, have fun in the sun.

So, how should you use today’s extra daylight? If you’re a Druid, Pagan, Wiccan or Swede you’ve probably got your plans sorted and have a nice maypole or prehistoric monument to convene around. If you don’t have any rituals planned, however, here are a few ways you can use the longest day of the year to its full advantage.

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Global Witness says at least 185 activists were killed and anti-mining activities were the most deadly – with 42 deaths related to protests

At least 185 environmental activists were killed last year, the highest annual death toll on record and close to a 60% increase on the previous year, according to a UK-based watchdog.

Global Witness documented lethal attacks across 16 countries. Brazil was worst hit with 50 deaths, many of them killings of campaigners who were trying to combat illegal logging in the Amazon. The Philippines was second with 33.

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Night-time vision evolved millions of years ago in early mammals, a study suggests.

Report says figures could rise to nearly one-third with power sector reforms, making it the world wind energy leader by a large margin

China is on track to generate more than a quarter of its electricity from wind power by 2030, and the figure could rise to nearly a third with power sector reforms, a new study has found.

Within 14 years, more new generating capacity – mostly clean energy – will come online in China than currently exists in the whole of the US, further cementing the country’s image as a burgeoning green giant.

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Andy Green says a new source of funding means preparations to run the Bloodhound 1,000mph supersonic car in South Africa next year can resume.

The 93 petaflop Sunway TaihuLight in China has topped a newly published list of supercomputers.

A recent aerial survey has revealed that the numbers of all three saiga populations in Kazakhstan are going up, Mongabay reports

Last year, catastrophe hit saiga antelopes in Kazakhstan. About 200,000 of these critically endangered antelopes died in Betpak-Dala in May, deeply worrying conservationists. The deaths, scientists eventually found, were most likely caused by bacterial infection.

But there may be hope for these severely threatened migratory mammals.

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Global Witness figures show last year was the deadliest for environment and land campaigners since 2002

Three environmental activists were killed per week last year, murdered defending land rights and the environment from mining, dam projects and logging, a campaign group said on Monday.

In 16 countries surveyed in a report by Global Witness, 185 activists were killed, making 2015 the deadliest year for environment and land campaigners since 2002.

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Solar-powered plane sets off from JFK airport on the transatlantic leg of its record-breaking flight to promote renewable energy

The sun-powered Solar Impulse 2 aircraft set off from New York’s JFK airport early on Monday, embarking on the transatlantic leg of its record-breaking flight around the world to promote renewable energy.

The flight, piloted by Swiss adventurer Bertrand Piccard, is expected to take about 90 hours - during which Piccard will only take short naps - before landing at Spain’s Seville airport.

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Improvements to ocean temperature measurements are making good measurements great

I have often said that global warming is really ocean warming. As humans add more heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere, it causes the Earth to gain energy. Almost all of that energy ends up in the oceans. So, if you want to know how fast the Earth is warming, you have to measure how fast the oceans are heating up.

Sounds easy enough at first, but when we recognize that the oceans are vast (and deep) we can appreciate the difficulties. How can we get enough measurements, at enough locations, and enough depths, to measure the oceans’ temperatures? Not only that, but since climate change is a long-term trend, it means we have to measure ocean temperature changes over many years and decades. We really want to know how fast the oceans’ temperatures are changing over long durations.

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Research has found that despite having excellent quality water, 40 per cent of Sydneysiders don't drink water straight from the tap.

Solar Impulse 2 sets off from New York to cross the Atlantic, one of the toughest stages of its attempt to fly around the globe using solar energy.

From deep inside caves to the bottom of the ocean, wildlife photographer Danté Fenolio seeks out the creatures that don’t want to be found

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Documents seen by Guardian show that the commission’s in-house science service told it in 2010 that tests had uncovered what researchers suspected to be a ‘defeat device’

The European commission was warned by its own experts that a car maker was suspected of cheating emissions tests five years before the VW emissions scandal.

A documents cache seen by the Guardian show that the commission’s in-house science service told it in 2010 that tests had uncovered what researchers suspected to be a “defeat device” that could cheat emissions tests.

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Working group on investment responsibility argues it is better to keep investments in oil and gas companies, rather than divest £5.9bn endowment

The University of Cambridge has rejected calls to divest its £5.9bn endowment from fossil fuels, as students, academics and the former archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams have called for.

In a report on Friday, the university ruled out future investments in coal and tar sands, although it currently has no direct holdings in either, and only negligible holdings in coal by investments managed externally.

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Two shipwrecks have been uncovered, the Zephyr, near Bream Creek, and a new wreck at the Friendly Beaches at Freycinet National Park.

Originally published in the Manchester Guardian on 20 June 1916

June 19.
Deep purple marsh orchids pushed their sturdy, densely-packed heads through the damp turf, and graceful white flowers hung from the upright stalks of the wintergreens. These were in the level spaces between the dunes, but on the sand itself the pink-flowered bindweeds were out, trailing up the slopes and striving to hold the shifting grains. Good as the bindweed is, it is less effective than the restharrow, whose sticky leaves were dusted with blown particles though its matted roots held firm enough, firmer even than the marram grass, actually planted to stop the shifting of the sand.

Blue butterflies enjoyed the sunshine, settling to close their bright wings when a cloud obscured the sun, and lizards lay basking, but not sleeping, almost invisible upon the sand. Predatory tiger beetles, green gems, quartered the slopes like sporting dogs, then rising, whisked down wind to the next dune; and large, metallic-coated flies, their prey, dropped on the warm sand for a moment, ready to dart off sideways from even the shadow of the foe. The ringed plover whistled plaintively as it strove to lure us from the neighbourhood of its nest, now flying, now running swiftly to attract our attention, but the noisy redshanks, well dubbed “yelpers,” kept up an incessant din as they rapidly flew round and round, or passed above, yelping hard, with quivering wings and expanded, wedge-shaped tails.

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