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Three recent studies point to just how broad, bizarre, and potentially devastating climate change is to life on Earth. And we’ve only seen one degree Celsius of warming so far.

Climate change is rapidly becoming a crisis that defies hyperbole.

For all the sound and fury of climate change denialists, self-deluding politicians and a very bewildered global public, the science behind climate change is rock solid while the impacts – observed on every ecosystem on the planet – are occurring faster in many parts of the world than even the most gloomy scientists predicted.

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The giant armadillo benefits 80 other species by providing a unique lodging and dining service in the largest wetland on Earth – the Pantanal in Brazil. Here’s a sneak peek into the lives of nature’s most amazing host and its guests

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The Paris agreement to limit global warming to below 2°C requires nothing short of a global energy revolution. Is this possible?

Drawing from personal experience, a look at what the new national standard for solar installation could mean for home solar and battery plans.

White-tail spider unlikely to be responsible for necrotising skin infection that led to amputation of Filipino tourist’s legs

A Melbourne man’s double amputation is likely to have been misattributed to a white-tail spider bite.

The family of Terry Pareja, a Filipino tourist, say he may have been bitten by a white-tailed spider while visiting relatives in Birchip in regional Victoria in late February.

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Environmental and legal groups fear impact on groundwater and accuse Queensland government of giving Indian mining company special treatment

Adani’s controversial $21bn Carmichael coalmine has been granted an unlimited 60-year water licence in what environmental and legal groups say is another example of governments giving the company special treatment.

The associated water licence, signed by a Queensland government representative the day after Cyclone Debbie tore through the state’s north, allows Adani Mining to take water from or near the Betts Creek formation when removing or draining water from the mine.

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The 2017 Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme target has been revealed. So what does this mean for solar installs?

Last year in Paris, for the very first time, English sparkling wine beat champagne in a blind tasting event. Well established French Champagne houses have started buying fields in Britain to grow grapes, and even the royal family is investing in this new venture.

At the same time, coffee-growing regions are shrinking and shifting. Farmers are being forced to move to higher altitudes, as the band in which to grow tasty coffee moves up the mountain.

The evidence that climate change is affecting some of our most prized beverages is simply too great to be ignored. So while British sparkling wine and the beginning of the “coffeepocalypse” were inconceivable just a few decades ago, they are now a reality. It’s unlikely that you’ll find many climate deniers among winemakers and coffee connoisseurs. But there are far greater impacts in store for human society than disruptions to our favourite drinks.

Dramatic examples of climate-mediated change to species distributions are not exceptions; they are fast becoming the rule. As our study published last week in the journal Science shows, climate change is driving a universal major redistribution of life on Earth.

Documented and predicted changes in species distribution are occurring all over the globe. Pecl et al. 2017

These changes are already having serious consequences for economic development, livelihoods, food security, human health, and culture. They are even influencing the pace of climate change itself, producing feedbacks to the climate system.

Species on the move

Species have, of course, been on the move since the dawn of life on Earth. The geographical ranges of species are naturally dynamic and fluctuate over time. But the critical issue here is the magnitude and rate of climatic changes for the 21st century, which are comparable to the largest global changes in the past 65 million years. Species have often adapted to changes in their physical environment, but never before have they been expected to do it so fast, and to accommodate so many human needs along the way.

For most species – marine, freshwater, and terrestrial species alike – the first response to rapid changes in climate is a shift in location, to stay within their preferred environmental conditions. On average, species are moving towards the poles at 17km per decade on land and 78km per decade in the ocean. On land, species are also moving to cooler, higher elevations, while in the ocean some fish are venturing deeper in search of cooler water.

Why does it matter?

Different species respond at different rates and to different degrees, with the result that new ecological communities are starting to emerge. Species that had never before interacted are now intermingled, and species that previously depended on one another for food or shelter are forced apart.

Why do changes in species distribution matter?

This global reshuffling of species can lead to pervasive and often unexpected consequences for both biological and human communities. For example, the range expansion of plant-eating tropical fish can have catastrophic impacts by overgrazing kelp forests, affecting biodiversity and important fisheries.

In wealthier countries these changes will create substantial challenges. For developing countries, the impacts may be devastating.

Knock-on effects

Many changes in species distribution have implications that are immediately obvious, like the spread of disease vectors such as mosquitoes or agricultural pests. However, other changes that may initially appear more subtle can also have great effects via impacting global climate feedbacks.

Mangroves, which store more carbon per unit area than most tropical forests, are moving towards the poles. Spring blooms of microscopic sea algae are projected to weaken and shift into the Arctic Ocean, as the global temperature rises and the seasonal Arctic sea ice retreats. This will change the patterns of “biological carbon sequestration” over Earth’s surface, and may lead to less carbon dioxide being removed from the atmosphere.

Redistribution of the vegetation on land is also expected to influence climate change. With more vegetation, less solar radiation is reflected back into the atmosphere, resulting in further warming. “Greening of the Arctic”, where larger shrubs are taking over from mosses and lichens, is expected to substantially change the reflectivity of the surface.

These changes in the distribution of vegetation are also affecting the culture of Indigenous Arctic communities. The northward growth of shrubs is leading to declines in the low-lying mosses and lichens eaten by caribou and reindeer. The opportunities for Indigenous reindeer herding and hunting are greatly reduced, with economic and cultural implications.

Reindeer in the Arctic are very important components of Indigenous and traditional ways of life. Snowchange 2016 /Tero Mustonen Winners and losers

Not all changes in distribution will be harmful. There will be winners and losers for species, and for the human communities and economic activities that rely on them. For example, coastal fishing communities in northern India are benefiting from the northward shift in the oil sardine’s range. In contrast, skipjack tuna is projected to become less abundant in western areas of the Pacific, where many countries depend on this fishery for economic development and food security.

Local communities can help forge solutions to these challenges. Citizen science initiatives like Redmap are boosting traditional scientific research and can be used as an early indication of how species distributions are changing. Having local communities engaged in such participatory monitoring can also increase the chances of timely and site-specific management interventions.

Even with improved monitoring and communication, we face an enormous challenge in addressing these changes in species distribution, to reduce their adverse impacts and maximise any opportunities. Responses will be needed at all levels of governance.

Internationally, the impacts of species on the move will affect our capacity to achieve virtually all of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, including good health, poverty reduction, economic growth, and gender equity.

Currently, these goals do not yet adequately consider effects of climate-driven changes in species distributions. This needs to change if we are to have any chance of achieving them in the future.

National development plans, economic strategies, conservation priorities, and supporting policies and governance arrangements will all need to be recalibrated to reflect the realities of climate change impacts on our natural systems. At the regional and local levels, a range of responses may be needed to enable affected places and communities to survive or thrive under new conditions.

For communities, this might include changed farming, forestry or fishing practices, new health interventions, and, in some cases, alternative livelihoods. Management responses such as relocating coffee production will itself have spillover effects on other communities or natural areas, so adaptation responses may need to anticipate indirect effects and negotiate these trade-offs.

To promote global biodiversity, protected areas will need to be managed to explicitly recognise novel ecological communities, and to promote connectivity across the landscape. For some species, managed relocations or direct interventions may be needed. Our commitment to conservation will need to be reflected in funding levels and priorities.

The success of human societies has always depended on the living components of natural and managed systems. For all our development and modernisation, this hasn’t changed. But human society has yet to appreciate the full implications for life on Earth, including human lives, of our current unprecedented climate-driven species redistribution. Enhanced awareness, supported by appropriate governance, will provide the best chance of minimising negative consequences while maximising opportunities arising from species movements.

Gretta Pecl receives funding from several sources including the Australian Research Council, Fisheries Research development Corporation, National Environment Research Council, Inspiring Australia and Holsworth.

Adriana Vergés receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

Ekaterina Popova receives funding from Natural Environment Research Council, UK.

Jan McDonald has received funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility and the Western Australian Marine Science Institute. She on a board member of the National Environmental Law Association.

Victoria battery storage tender attracts more than 100 proposals, outstripping even the phenomenal response to South Australia tender. Meanwhile, changes to obscure rules that could encourage more storage and demand response become a mainstream issue.

Scrapping of planned coal power and accelerated investment in wind and solar are essential, but it can be done significantly cheaper than IEA estimates.

Wenlock Edge Violets have a built-in nostalgia, a belonging to something that is always fleeting and longed for

A century and a half ago, when springs were different, the poet John Clare wrote: “All bleaching in the thin March air / the scattered violets lie.” (March Violet). He may have meant violets growing under withered and bleached nettle stems, but for me, today, there are shining white violets “bleaching” on the hedge bank in one of the last cold, grey, “thin” mornings in March.

Even though there are beautifully subtle violet violets scattered in the mossy shadows under trees and through the emerging leaves beneath hedges, the eye is drawn to the white ones. I wonder if bees prefer white violets to violet-coloured violets? The more common forms have ultraviolet markings on their petals called bee guides, which look like veins filled with iodine and must be as vivid as rope lights to insects.

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Having lost ground early in the month, March energy efficiency market prices were stable, amid talk of cheaper forms of commercial lighting.

A trio of red pandas have made their public debut at Symbio wildlife park, south of Sydney. They were born to first-time mother Kesari and father Pabu on Christmas Eve, weighing about 100g each. The pups are all male and the Symbio team will be announcing their names, once decided, over the coming days

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Herbert Smith Freehills has acted for the financiers on the project financing of the A$26.6 million Gullen Solar Farm project near Canberra.

Researchers estimate that there are 60,065 species of trees in the world.

Theresa May ‘very conscious’ that past governments encouraged motorists to buy diesel cars, as increased charges for polluting vehicles loom large

Theresa May says she will not punish drivers of older diesel cars who were encouraged to buy the polluting vehicles under the Labour government.

A crackdown on the vehicles to tackle poor air quality has been announced by the London mayor, Sadiq Khan, with drivers of polluting vehicles facing £24-a-day charges to drive in central London from 2019.

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The BBC's Pallab Ghosh has been finding out about a filter made from graphene that can turn salt water into drinking water.

US defence expert warns people fleeing low-lying Pacific islands a precursor to ‘climate-exacerbated water insecurities’ that could trigger wider conflict

Australia could be on the frontline of a new wave of “climate refugees” displaced by extreme weather events, droughts and rising seas, a US expert on the national security impacts of climate change has warned.

Sherri Goodman, a former US deputy undersecretary of defence, argues the impact of climate change – rising seas, extreme weather, prolonged droughts – will be a “threat multiplier” for sepacurity challenges, and could be the spark that ignites conflict and drives new waves of mass forced migration.

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Cyclone Debbie, which lashed the Queensland coast a week ago, has hit farmers hard in the area around Bowen – a crucial supplier of vegetables to Sydney, Melbourne and much of eastern Australia.

With the Queensland Farmers’ Federation estimating the damage at more than A$100 million and winter crop losses at 20%, the event looks set to affect the cost and availability of fresh food for millions of Australians. Growers are reportedly forecasting a price spike in May, when the damaged crops were scheduled to have arrived on shelves.

The incident also raises broader questions about the resilience of Australia’s fresh vegetable supply, much of which comes from a relatively small number of areas that are under pressure from climate and land use change.

In 2011 the Bowen area produced 33% of Australia’s fresh beans, 46% of capsicum and 23% of fresh tomatoes, making it the country’s largest producer of beans and capsicums, and number two in fresh tomatoes.

The region also produces a significant amount of chillies, corn, cucumbers, eggplant, pumpkin, zucchini and squash, and is a key production area for mangoes and melons.

Coastal Queensland’s vegetable regions are among the highest-producing in the country, especially for perishable vegetables. The Whitsunday region around Bowen, and the area around Bundaberg further south are each responsible for around 13% of the national perishable vegetable supply.

As the chart below shows, vegetable production is highly concentrated in particular regions, typically on the fringes of large cities. These “peri-urban” regions, when added to the two major growing areas in coastal Queensland, account for about 75% of Australia’s perishable vegetables.

Proportion of State Perishable Vegetable Production by weight. ABS 7121.0 Agricultural Commodities Australia, 2010-11

Australia’s climate variability means that most fresh produce can be grown domestically. The seasonable variability allows production to move from the south to the north in the winter, when the Bundaberg and Bowen areas produce most of the winter vegetables consumed in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. The Bowen Gumlu Growers Association estimates that during the spring growing season in September—October, the region produces 90% of Australia’s fresh tomatoes and 95% of capsicums.

Besides damaging crops, Cyclone Debbie has also destroyed many growers’ packing and cool storage sheds. The cost of rebuilding this infrastructure may be too much for many farmers, and the waterlogged soils are also set to make planting the next crop more difficult.

The recovery of production in these areas is crucial for the supply. Growers who have lost their May crop will first have to wait until the paddocks dry out, then source new seedlings and plant them. It could be weeks until crops can be replanted, and storage and processing facilities replaced.

The Queensland government has announced natural disaster relief funding, including concessional loans of up to A$250,000 and essential working capital loans of up to A$100,000, to help farmers replant and rebuild.

Meanwhile, consumers of fresh vegetables in Sydney and Melbourne and many other places are likely to find themselves paying more until the shortfall can be replaced.

Fresh food for growing cities

Australia’s cities are growing rapidly, along with those of many other countries. The United Nations has predicted that by 2050 about 87% of the world’s population will live in cities. This urban expansion is putting ever more pressure on peri-urban food bowls.

Food production is also under pressure from climate change, raising the risk of future food shocks and price spikes in the wake of disasters such as cyclones. Meanwhile, the desire for semi-rural lifestyles is also conflicting with the use of land for farming (see Sydney’s Food Futures and Foodprint Melbourne for more).

These pressures mean that Australia’s cities need to make their food systems more resilient, so that they can withstand food shocks more easily, and recover more quickly.

Key features of a resilient food system are likely to include:

• geographic diversity in production, which spreads the risk of crop damage from extreme weather events across a number of different production areas;

• more local food production, to reduce transportation and storage costs and avoid over-reliance on particular regions;

• a diverse, healthy and innovative farming community;

• greater consumer awareness of the importance of seasonal and locally produced food;

• recycling of urban waste and water for use on farms, to reduce the use of fresh water and fertilisers;

• the capacity to import food from overseas to meet shortfalls in domestic supply;

• increased use of protected cropping systems such as greenhouses, which are better able to withstand adverse weather.

Two recent studies of food production around Sydney and Melbourne provide examples of a range of mechanisms and policies for increasing the resilience of the food systems of Australian cities.

Our food system has served us well until now, but land use pressures and climate change will make it harder in future. When a cyclone can knock out a major production region overnight, with knock-on effects for Australian consumers, this points to a lack of resilience in Australia’s fresh vegetable supply.

Ian Sinclair is a PhD Candidate and Rural Planning Consultant and has consulted to and received funding from Whitsunday Regional Council as well as Sydney peri-urban Councils and the Department of Planning and Environment.

Brent Jacobs receives funding from NSW Office of Environment and Heritage and the NSW Environmental Trust. He has conducted research on peri-urban food production for the Sydney's Food Future project. Partners in this project included Wollondilly Shire Council.

Laura Wynne managed a research project on peri-urban food production for the Sydney's Food Futures project, which received funding from the Office and Environment and Heritage and the NSW Environmental Trust. The project involved Wollondilly Shire Council, the Sydney Peri-Urban Network of Councils and other partners.

Rachel Carey led the Foodprint Melbourne project, which was funded by the Lord Mayor's Charitable Foundation. Project partners included the City of Melbourne and the peak bodies representing the local government areas in Melbourne's city fringe foodbowl. She is also a Research Fellow on the project 'Regulating Food Labels: The case of free range food products in Australia', which is funded by the Australian Research Council.

Daffodils on verges | Gendered Oscars | Anti-antidisestablishmentarianism | The world’s oldest continuously established parliament | The Boat Race | San Serriffe

I agree with Jill Bennett (Letters, 4 April) that daffodils may not look great on urban verges, but here in Old Buckenham we persuaded the parish council to fund the purchase of sacks of varied narcissi for us in 1999. These were planted in bulk by volunteers around the base of all of the seven 30mph speed signs at the various entrances to the village as a Millennium project. They first bloomed in 2000 and are still providing a welcome sight, some 18 seasons later. Perhaps Patrick Barkham should come and have a look before the blooms die off.
Ron Brewer
Old Buckenham, Norfolk

• Re David Shariatmadari’s article “Here’s one title we need” (3 April), using the word “actress” to describe a female actor is frowned upon. Might the Academy Awards help “remove gender from our calculations” by abolishing this anachronism and awarding one Oscar for the best actor, regardless of gender. Apart from anything else, it would make life easier for PwC.
John Lowery
London

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