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Closing coal plants by 2023 rather than 2025 will cut carbon emissions and air pollution, and boost clean energy projects, Tory thinktank tells government

The UK should close all its coal-fired power stations two years earlier than the government’s pledge of 2025, according to green Conservatives including former energy minister Lord Greg Barker.

The move would not cause the lights to go out, would cut both carbon emissions and air pollution and would boost cleaner energy projects, according to a report from Bright Blue, a thinktank of Tory modernisers.

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Will beachfront properties become uninsurable before they become uninhabitable?

Australian scientists have used genetic material to pinpoint the origin of the deep-sea mushroom, an unusual gelatinous creature first dredged up near Tasmania in 1986.

Eastern Australia’s wild weather has left coastal homes teetering on the brink of collapse, and has eroded beaches by up to 50m in parts of Sydney.

Now the attention turns to the clean-up. There are several legal issues for owners of damaged properties, particularly the question of if and how they can be compensated.

While the recent events cannot be attributed directly to climate change, they are certainly consistent with a warming world. Our institutions are ill-prepared for a potential increase in the frequency and severity of such events.

Insurance

Unfortunately, the success of insurance claims for damaged homes in Sydney will depend entirely on the terms of their policies. Some policies don’t cover erosion at all. Some policies only cover it if it occurs within a certain proximity of another insured event (for example, within 48 hours of a named storm event). Some policies also comprehensively exclude coverage for damage caused by actions of the sea.

What’s more, while insurance will cover damage to buildings, policies do not extend to cover damage to or loss of land. This is especially problematic in the case of damage caused by waves and storms, because erosion will often result in loss of land.

Under the traditional law doctrine, where land is lost to erosion, the Crown automatically gains title to the inundated land, without any obligation to pay compensation. So even if a home-owner is insured, they may find themselves with no land to rebuild on.

Legal proceedings

Another potential avenue for home-owners to pursue is proceedings against the relevant local government for negligent approval of development. The success of this type of proceeding is highly speculative – much will hinge upon when the development was approved and how much information on the coastal hazards was available at that time.

Where development was approved decades ago, it may be difficult to prove that a local government was negligent, because of the limited state of knowledge at the time. In the case of more recent development approvals, there may be an argument that a local government had a high level of knowledge of the risk and control of risk information. These are the type of factors a court will look at in assessing negligence.

On the flip side, a court may also find that a landholder knew of and accepted the risk. Negligence proceedings are by no means a guaranteed avenue for landholders to recoup their loss, but are an avenue that Collaroy landholders may be able to explore.

Disaster assistance

Where insurance is not available, and there are no strict legal rights against government, landholders may request disaster relief or assistance from government.

Despite the lack of any legal compulsion to do so, Australian governments have a long history of providing disaster relief to citizens when an extreme weather event causes property damage.

A recent Productivity Commission report estimated that, over the past decade, the federal government spent A$8 billion on post-disaster relief and recovery. State governments spent a further A$5.6 billion.

However, the availability and amount of a payment are not guaranteed. This may depend upon the number of other claims for assistance, and any other demands on government resources. A claim for disaster relief from government may be an option for Collaroy landholders, but many other home-owners are also affected by flooding due to the recent extreme weather – and so potentially there are many other requests for relief.

What should we learn from this event for the future?

While the pictures of houses being lost to the sea in Collaroy are confronting, these images may become more commonplace. The most recent scientific report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that, under a business-as-usual scenario, a global sea-level rise in the range of 0.53-0.97m by 2100 is likely.

Even if emissions are immediately reduced, a global sea-level rise of 0.28-0.60m by 2100 is still possible. This will be especially problematic in Australia, with an estimated 711,000 residential addresses located within 3km of the shore and less than 6m above sea level – not to mention the billions of dollars' worth of government infrastructure also located in these regions.

As sea levels rise, some properties may be permanently inundated. Others may be hit by storm surge impacts or erosion, which may be exacerbated by sea-level rise.

If these events continue to attract disaster relief, the financial burden will become too great for governments to bear. Furthermore, government disaster assistance does not solve the more intractable problem of land being lost to the sea.

The pictures from Collaroy should therefore prompt a discussion about how we, as a society, can deal with the potential impacts of coastal hazards on existing developments.

This is a challenging question to answer, but there is an opportunity to address it in a planned and co-ordinated fashion.

Justine Bell-James has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.

This unlucky fish came unstuck when it was ‘swallowed up’ by a roaming jellyfish in waters off Byron Bay, Australia. The shot was captured by ocean photographer Tim Samuel, who says the fish was still alive and fighting to escape. ‘It was able to propel the jellyfish forward and controlled its movement to an extent. The jellyfish threw it off balance, though, and they would wobble around, and sometimes get stuck doing circles.’

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The massive storms that have lashed Australia’s east coast over the past few days are not just a threat to lives and property, but also to our marine wildlife.

The increasing urbanisation of our coastlines, and proliferation of impervious surfaces, has meant that up to 80% of stormwater now runs rapidly into a dense underground network of drains.

These drains act like an expressway for pollution and debris in our cities, roads, gutters and gardens, sending a cocktail of contaminants directly into the aquatic ecosystems that lie at the end of the pipe.

Stormageddons

Earlier this year, Newcastle recorded its wettest January day since 1862. In 2015, New South Wales experienced a “once in a century” storm event.

These storms along Australia’s east coast originated mainly from naturally occurring low-pressure systems, which may become less frequent but more severe in the future. Worldwide extreme weather events are becoming more common, with about 18% of heavy precipitation events attributed to global warming.

Australia is not the only country receiving a drenching. Torrential rains have hit Texas twice this year, breaking records in May and unleashing two 100-year storms in less than a week. Louisiana and Mississippi have been placed on flood watch.

Across the Atlantic, Europe is also emerging from receding flood waters, with the River Seine in France at its highest levels since 1910 and southern Germany battered by thunderstorms, hail and flash flooding.

A pollution cocktail

Stormwater is a mixture of rain and any dissolved or solid pollutants carried along with it. The excess water flowing along streets and gutters picks up litter, oil and grease, and metals. Run-off from parks and gardens introduces fertilisers, pathogens, pesticides and soil.

In Sydney Harbour it has been estimated that more than two-thirds of the pollutants entering the waterway do so via stormwater drains, creating hotspots of pollution with concentrations 20 times higher than natural levels. More than 80% of the city’s catchment is covered by concrete, increasing the volumes of stormwater run-off.

When stormwater reaches a waterway it represents a significant ecological risk. Together with international colleagues, we have been investigating the impact of stormwater pollution on ecological communities large and small, including changes to the number of species, nutrient cycling, and the release of toxic compounds such as ammonia, nitrous oxide and hydrogen sulphide.

Mobile animals such as fish and crustaceans may be able to avoid pollution by temporarily moving. But other aquatic organisms such as seaweeds and animals that anchor to rocks are more vulnerable. If they don’t die from the exposure, they may accumulate significant concentrations of pollutants within their bodies.

In stagnant or poorly flushed waterways, the risk of exposure is greater as pollutants tend to linger in the water and become bound to sediments where they act as an ongoing stress.

A big question is what happens when ecosystems are exposed to many different pollutants. Some studies suggest the impacts will be greater than the sum of the individual pollutants.

Building better cities

The solution to stormwater run-off is to build better: to design and construct cities to protect waterways such as rivers, manage stormwater and also make them liveable for people too. This approach is known as water-sensitive urban design.

One example is the large underground water tanks that collect stormwater to be reused for irrigation at Sydney’s Barangaroo Reserve.

You can help at home too by retaining vegetation, installing rainwater tanks, clearing excess leaf litter and debris from guttering and driveways, and reducing the use of pesticides and fertilisers on gardens. Rainwater tanks have proven particularly successful at capturing all stormwater for reuse in toilet flushing and irrigation.

While we need to clean up our waterways, we also need to make sure that enough water and organic matter are flowing through our rivers and into the oceans. Getting the balance right will make for better cities and healthier oceans.

Katherine Dafforn receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Lendlease. She is affiliated with the Sydney Institute of Marine Science.

Emma Johnston receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

The flooding rains that have drenched eastern Australia have tragically left several people dead and several more missing in New South Wales and Tasmania. This is an all-too-common story – flooding rains are a major cause of deaths around the globe.

Since 1994, we have studied the trends and causes of deaths due to natural disasters. Recent research into flood fatalities in Australia from 1900 to 2015 is revealing some important insights.

Our research suggests many of these deaths are avoidable.

How people die in floods

Since 1900, 1,859 people in Australia have died in floods. That’s more than in bushfires and earthquakes, but less than heatwaves, which remain by far Australia’s most deadly natural peril (excluding pandemic diseases). Of these flood deaths, 178 have occurred since 2000.

The majority of deaths have been male (79%), although the proportion of females has increased since the 1960s. Children and adults younger than 29 make up the majority.

Overall, most deaths have occurred in New South Wales and Queensland, although a greater proportion of people die in the Northern Territory compared to the population. Most deaths happen in relative isolation, in flood events that claim either one or two lives.

Most people have died while attempting to cross a bridge, causeway, culvert or road, either on foot or in a vehicle. While most victims were capable of independent action and aware of the flood, the speed and depth of the water took them by surprise.

Of those who were attempting to reach a destination at the time of death, the greatest number were on their way home. Playing in flood water is also a significant cause of death, particularly for children and young adults. More women and children died in floods due to the decisions of others – for example, being a passenger in a vehicle.

Those on foot mostly perished during the daytime, whereas those in vehicles were more likely to die in the evening when visibility is poorer. The majority of fatalities happened within the local area close to where they lived.

Overall, flood deaths have been declining since the early 1960s. This is probably due to investments in flood mitigation and warning systems, and the work of emergency service organisations such as the State Emergency Services. Deaths associated with motor vehicles, however, are on the rise and those associated with four-wheel-drive vehicles have increased over the past 15 years. The large majority of drivers have been men.

Our research has shown that many people simply ignore warnings and road closure signs. In one case in 2015 in NSW, 84% of motorists were observed driving past road closure signs and entering flood waters. Most were men driving four-wheel-drive vehicles.

How can we prepare people?

Our unpublished survey has revealed that Australian emergency managers prefer improving roadside warning signage at causeways, flood warning systems and road design in flood-prone areas.

However, it is clear that current practices are failing and must be complemented with a strategy to inspire behavioural change in the community.

Education programs should be targeted at young males at risk of entering floodwater, and at females and children to raise their awareness so that they may be empowered to influence motorist behaviour.

It is too easy to underestimate the dangers associated with floods. Our vehicles, even four-wheel-drives, do not provide a safe means of crossing flooded roadways. The public must understand that flood waters need to be respected, and be ready to work with authorities to reduce risks posed by flooding to our towns and cities.

See here for the full research report.

Katharine Haynes receives funding from and is affiliated with the Bushfire and Natural Hazard Cooperative Research Centre.

Andrew Gissimg receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.

Australia’s natural wonder is in mortal danger. Bleaching caused by climate change has killed almost a quarter of its coral this year and many scientists believe it could be too late for the rest. Using exclusive photographs and new data, a Guardian special report investigates how the reef has been devastated – and what can be done to save it

It was the smell that really got to diver Richard Vevers. The smell of death on the reef.

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Jon Brodie from James Cook University says to give the Great Barrier Reef even a fighting chance to survive, Australia needs to spend $1bn a year for the next 10 years to improve water quality. If we don’t do that now, he says, we might need to just give up on the reef. ‘Climate change is happening much more quickly and much more severely than most scientists predicted’

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Terry Hughes from James Cook University in Queensland leads a taskforce measuring the condition of the Great Barrier Reef amid a global coral bleaching event that is ‘off the scale’. ‘The kind of bleaching we’re seeing now is an entirely modern phenomenon,’ he says. ‘We’re now in a very precarious position, where every El Niño that comes along, every five or six years, can potentially bleach the entire Great Barrier Reef’

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Richard Vevers from the Ocean Agency had never experienced anything like the devastation he witnessed in May diving around the dead and dying coral reefs off Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef. When his team emerged from the water, he says, ‘We realised we just stank – we stank of the smell of rotting animals.’ The reefs around the island have been ravaged by coral bleaching caused by climate change

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Paul Crocombe from Adrenalin Dive in Townsville has been taking tourists to the Great Barrier Reef for more than 20 years. ‘We were really fortuntate this time with the coral bleaching that the majority of the mortality is a long way north of here,’ he says. With the reef in danger, he adds, accurate information is needed

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Dead and dying coral at Lizard Island on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. The once brilliant coral is blanketed by seaweed – a sign of extreme ecosystem meltdown. These exclusive photographs are from a series taken by not-for-profit the Ocean Agency as part of its work around the world documenting the longest coral bleaching event in history

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Tiny bird flies 59,650 miles from its breeding grounds in Farne Islands in the UK to Antarctica and back again, clocking the longest ever migration recorded

A tiny bird from the Farne Islands off Northumberland has clocked up the longest migration ever recorded. The Arctic tern’s meandering journey to Antarctica and back saw it clock up 59,650 miles, more than twice the circumference of the planet.

The bird, which weighs just 100g, left its breeding grounds last July and flew down the west coast of Africa, rounded the Cape of Good Hope into the Indian Ocean and arrived in Antarctica in November. Its mammoth trek was recorded by a tiny device attached to its leg, weighing 0.7g - too light to affect its flight.

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GREAT MOMENTS IN SCIENCE: There may be a whole range of reasons why it's not good to water plants in the middle of the day, but is burning the plant's leaves one of them? Dr Karl investigates the physics of plants and water.

Europe’s influence on cleaning up the air Britons breathe is driven by the 2008 clean air directive but dates back much further

The UK government freely says that almost all its efforts to cut air pollution in recent years have been driven by EU legislation.

There is one reason why air pollution was a big issue in the London mayoral campaign and why the government is facing a legal challenge on its clean-up plans: the EU’s 2008 clean air directive.

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The hunt for a cancer cure should be treated with as much urgency as the Ebola outbreak, says US Vice-President Joe Biden.

Report recommends breeding the endangered species – which is the world’s smallest porpoise – in captivity, but some experts disagree

Mexican authorities should consider trapping some of the few remaining vaquita marina porpoises in order to attempt breeding the endangered species in captivity or semi-captivity, conservationists have recommended.

Related: Mexico urged to act and save world's smallest porpoise – the little sea cow

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Fire significantly added to our ability to change the world. Fire image from www.shutterstock.com

Over the past year, carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels in the atmosphere have risen faster than any period in the past 55 million years. That’s the finding of my study published in Global Change Biology.

From April 2015 to April 2016, CO₂ levels rose by 4.6 parts per million (ppm), reaching a level of 407.42ppm at Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii. This rate has increased in the past 200 years and forms a unique spike, reflecting accelerating global warming reinforced by the recent El Niño.

CO₂ levels above 400ppm have not been observed in the Earth’s climate record since the Pliocene, 5.3-2.6 million years ago, when sea level was about 25 metres higher than at present.

While climate change has gained scientific attention in the past 50 years, and political action in the last 25, humans have been altering the atmosphere much longer than that.

About 7,000 years ago, the development of agriculture, burning and land clearing is believed to have led to a small rise in CO₂ in the atmosphere (around 20-25ppm). Methane also rose by a small amount from 5,000 years ago.

These small rises didn’t lead to increasing temperatures, because the overall temperature trend until the 18th century was cooling.

Humans have since increased CO₂ from 280ppm before the Industrial Revolution to over 400ppm. Together these global changes, driven by our use of energy, have led scientists to define a new geological age, the Anthropocene.

A new age

Although not yet officially recognised, the Anthropocene is widely considered to have begun in the 18th century with the release of greenhouse gases (CO₂, methane and nitrogen oxides), land clearing, chemical pollution and other human activities. These changes have accelerated since the 1950s.

Some think the Anthropocene began much earlier, linked to the first rise in greenhouse gases around 7,000 years ago. In evolutionary terms, it can be suggested the blueprint for anthropogenic global warming originated earlier still with the harnessing of fire.

The only natural parallel with the speed of climate changes over the last few decades is during mass extinctions, when the pace of change exceeds the ability of species to adapt. Mass extinctions in the past have been triggered by large-scale volcanic events or asteroid impacts.

This time it’s us causing the changes. The unique ability of an organism to trigger a mass extinction has a possible precedent in the history of Earth.

As US palaeontologist Peter Ward explains in Under Green Sky (2008), the Permian-Triassic mass extinction (about 251 million years ago) was, at least in part, caused by toxic gas released by purple-green algae from the oceans.

Fire and ice

What has made humans so effective at causing environmental change? There are two essential factors.

First, with the exception of humans, no species has ever been able to harness combustion in order to magnify its energy output. Humans mastered fire at least 1 million years ago, and possibly earlier.

Fire has allowed us to cook. Consequently, we were able to increase our protein consumption, hunt, protect ourselves from cold and wild animals, move into inhospitable climate, clear the land, smelt metals and construct machines.

Fire vastly increased the amount of energy available for people to use. Human respiration dissipates 2–10 calories per minute, a camp fire covering one square metre releases approximately three to four orders of magnitude more, and the output of a 1,000 megawatt-hour power plant expends yet higher orders of magnitude than the energy produced by human respiration.

Second, humans have been blessed by a relatively stable climate over the past 7,000 years, although mean global variations of less than 1℃ were sufficient to cause serious disruption to agriculture and a decline to collapse of civilisations.

Ice core evidence for the concentration of greenhouse gases and atmospheric temperatures during the last 740,000 years suggests highly unstable and often extreme climates during the ice ages (glacial) and during abrupt cooling phases (called “stadials”) during warmer (interglacial) periods, preventing the development of farming.

A stable climate developed around 7,000 years ago. This allowed large-scale Neolithic production of extra food and thereby the emergence of villages, towns and later cities. This opened the way for Homo sapiens to expand its population and trigger energy output by huge amounts.

Thus, despite their high intelligence, humans were largely restricted to hunting and gathering until they mastered fire and then until the climate stabilised enough to allow farming.

The future

Since the onset of the industrial age, humans have released more than 600 billion tonnes of carbon, pushing mean global temperatures up by around 1°C globally, or 1.5°C on the continents.

Allowing for the cooling effects of sulphur aerosols (which reflect sunlight), the rise in temperatures is closer to 2°C, a mean global temperature similar to the Pliocene (2.6 - 5.3 million years ago). More recently the rise of atmospheric CO₂ accelerated, to rates higher than 3ppm per year during 2012-2016.

While we know a lot about what may happen in a warming world, widely agreed projections of future temperatures do not include the possibility of abrupt climate tipping point events.

Following the peak of previous warm periods, the Atlantic Mid-Ocean Circulation (AMOC) has repeatedly collapsed due to the melting Greenland ice sheet and flow of cold meltwater into the ocean, triggering much colder temperatures, followed by further warming. Examples are the cold Younger Dryas (12,900-11,700 years ago) and the collapse of the North American ice sheet about 8,200 years ago.

A future AMOC collapse may be signified by a growing cold region southeast of Greenland in the North Atlantic. An AMOC collapse will trigger a sharp decline in temperatures in the North Atlantic region for a limited but unspecified period. With high atmospheric CO₂ levels, such a collapse would be followed by renewed warming.

Recent history inexorably links human civilisation to the Earth’s climate. Given its mastery of fire and nuclear fission, humanity would need to be both wise and in control if it is to avert the energy released from these sources from threatening nature and its own future.

This article is based on Climate, Fire and Human Evolution (2016) by Andrew Glikson.

Andrew Glikson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

British Lung Foundation research finds those in poorer areas up to twice as affected as those in rich boroughs

People living in some of London’s most deprived areas have up to twice as much chance of dying from life-threatening lung conditions – from cancer to asthma – as those in the richest areas, new research has shown.

The research, by the British Lung Foundation charity, prompted the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, to call for urgent measures to improve air quality and reduce pollution in the capital.

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