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Ecosystem services – the natural processes that allow Earth to sustain life and provide us with everything we have and see – are facing an uncertain future.

Between 1997 and 2011, the global value of ecosystem services declined by up to US$20 trillion per year as a result of changing land use. To put that in context, the world’s entire GDP is currently just under US$74 trillion.

Our research shows that, in the Asia-Pacific region, this downward trend is likely to continue unless there are significant policy changes. By 2050, we predict that ecosystem service values could drop by 34% from their 2011 base value of US$13 trillion.

But, more optimistically, we also forecast that ecosystems could grow in value by 24% by mid-century, if policies are put in place to safeguard these crucial environmental values.

An Asian century (of ecosystems)

The Asia-Pacific region has historically followed the global trend in ecosystem depletion. But the future doesn’t have to be like the past. The decisions we make as a society will determine what our world will look like in that future.

With that in mind, our research focused on a range of land-use scenarios to try to forecast the consequences of various social, environmental and economic policies.

We used these scenarios to derive estimates of land-use change (urban, cropland, forest, grassland, wetland, desert), population, GDP and other variables such as inequality up to the year 2050. Changes in total value of ecosystem services in these scenarios were estimated to be due to two factors: the change in area covered by each ecosystem type; and the change in the “unit value” – the total value of all the marketed and non-marketed ecosystem services, per area, per year of each ecosystem type due to degradation or restoration.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Afghanistan shows the greatest potential losses and gains, as do other countries that are more susceptible to desertification. At the same time, these countries also have the greatest potential for reversing land degradation.

On the other hand, in this region, countries like Japan and New Zealand have the least potential for fluctuations in their ecosystem service values. This is because they are already highly developed and potentially have more stable climates.

Australia’s prospects

Australia, second only to China in ecosystem services value, also shows an extensive range of values among our four scenarios. Starting with a terrestrial ecosystem services value of US$3.4 trillion per year in 2011 (roughly three times Australia’s GDP that year), we forecast that by 2050 ecosystem services could grow in value by as much as 21%, or decrease by up to 29%.

This translates to either a gain of US$700 billion per year or a loss of US$980 billion per year – a figure that’s not far short of Australia’s current annual GDP.

The scenarios used incorporate a range of world views and policies, and the impacts of these on the entire, integrated system, including population, energy use, equity, environmental change, climate change and more. Our research features a country-by-country breakdown of the outcomes of each scenario, although it is impossible to separate out the impact of individual policies, especially given the differences in each country.

The consequences and solutions

The loss of ecosystem services will be felt most strongly by the poorest in any society, as they depend most directly on ecosystem services. They are the first to feel the effects when those services begin to disappear, and the least able to replace or ameliorate the loss. Increasing ecosystem services, on the other hand, would increase sustainable human well-being.

Around the world, the focus on ecosystem services has been growing quickly. Recent major policy reforms in this direction include a White House memo directing US federal agencies to incorporate ecosystem services into their planning, investment and regulations.

Other countries have also begun to incorporate ecosystem services in their policies. The European Union has mandated all member countries to produce national ecosystem service assessments, for use in policy and decision-making.

At the international level, the United Nations has set up an Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, analogous in structure and function to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The international Ecosystem Services Partnership has also been established to co-ordinate and facilitate the exchange of information and expertise across the world.

We have taken ecosystem services for granted for far too long. The UN Sustainable Development Goals, adopted last year by all UN countries, include specific calls to promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, to halt and reverse land degradation, to ensure clean water and food security, as well as to safeguard life both on land and in the oceans.

If we are taking these goals seriously, we need to put natural capital and ecosystem services “on the books” as a major contributor to sustainable well-being.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

As Patrick Barkham says (Postcards from the hedge, 2 August) austerity is responsible for wild roadsides. But this is only partly so. Plantlife has for years campaigned for roadside verges to be left uncut until flowers have dropped their seeds, which can be as late as August or September. One cut can be ideal, with the proviso that visibility is maintained for road users. Dorset county council is following such guidelines and is experimenting with stripping topsoil to reduce fertility and introducing yellow rattle to inhibit vigorous grass growth. It is hoped that other local authorities will introduce such measures into their roadside maintenance schedules to help wildflowers that have been pushed from farmlands to the margins.
Paul Walker
Buxton, Derbyshire

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China National Nuclear Corporation on government list of preferred bidders for development funding for next-generation modular reactors

A controversial Chinese company has been selected to bid for millions of pounds of public money in a UK government competition to develop mini nuclear power stations.

The China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) features twice in a government list of 33 projects and companies deemed eligible to compete for a share in up to £250m to develop so-called small modular reactors (SMR).

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Researchers from the Centre for Coastal Studies (CCS) catch on camera a great white shark feasting on the carcass of a minke whale this week. The sighting is a sign of a resurgence of the species along the north-eastern US Atlantic coast, and led to three popular tourist beaches being temporarily closed

• Great white shark feast caught on film points to population rebound in US

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Greenpeace accuses Theresa May of wanting to ‘silence concerns with a wad of cash’ as Labour and Green party join attack

Environmental campaigners have accused the government of trying to bribe the public to accept fracking, after Theresa May unveiled plans to give households cash payments worth thousands of pounds if shale drilling occurs in their areas.

The prime minister personally intervened with proposals for households to get direct cash handouts in areas where fracking takes place, changing plans that would have given money to local communities.

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A resurgence of gray seals, a favorite food, has been credited for the shark’s comeback on the Atlantic coast – but sighting has led to beach closures

Researchers in Massachusetts this week captured footage of a great white shark feasting on a minke whale carcass, off the coast of Cape Cod. The sighting led to the temporary and precautionary closure of three popular tourist beaches.

Related: Monster shark fishing tournaments face growing pressure to reform

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China launched its first mobile telecommunications satellite, to establish a network serving large swathes of the world.

Theresa May rewrites the rules so that private individuals will directly benefit

The prime minister has intervened to allow people who live near sites used for shale gas exploration to be given cash payments so that they benefit from the developments.

In rewriting George Osborne’s plans, Theresa May has ensured local people can share in proceeds from fracking projects. Previous proposals for the Shale Wealth Fund only included cash for community trusts and councils.

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After 25 years, the decision to site the National Forest amid derelict coal and quarry workings has borne spectacular fruit

Twenty-five years ago, the Midlands villages of Moira, Donisthorpe and Overseal overlooked a gruesome landscape. The communities were surrounded by opencast mines, old clay quarries, spoil heaps, derelict coal workings, polluted waterways and all the other ecological wreckage of heavy industry.

The air smelt and tasted unpleasant and the land was poisoned. There were next to no trees, not many jobs and little wildlife. Following the closure of the pits, people were deserting the area for Midlands cities such as Birmingham, Derby and Leicester. The future looked bleak.

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France’s slow response to ONR on suspect components raises question for regulator’s interaction with Chinese contractors

Britain’s nuclear watchdog was made to wait more than a fortnight for key files from energy giant EDF confirming that components recently revealed to be suspect had not been used in one of Britain’s largest nuclear power stations.

Emails released under the Freedom of Information Act show that in early May, France’s EDF Group initially rebuffed requests from the Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) to hand over files about a foundry in France that made specialist parts for EDF’s reactors. The request followed a shock announcement by the foundry’s owner, Areva, on 2 May that quality control reports could have been falsified. The email trail shows the ONR was still making requests for a components list on 18 May, 16 days after the safety fears were first aired.

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The opening of the Rio Olympics, ongoing violence in Syria, elections in South Africa – the best photography in news, culture and sport from around the world this week

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Newport, Pembrokeshire Of all birds, none reminds me more clearly and poignantly that ‘summer’s lease hath all too short a date’

“Like miniature magpies!” That’s how my friends’ young daughter described them to me years ago, delighted by the little dancing birds of summer that thronged the track down to my house. She wanted to know what they were called. They were here again as I climbed out of Newport heading for Carn Ingli.

If any bird typifies Wales and summer, it’s surely the pied flycatcher, performing its quick and lightsome aerial minuets along the lanes. So long as there are sessile oak woods nearby, especially ones equipped with nest-boxes, from April to early August you’ll witness the birds’ incessant activity. You’ll hear their tuneful quarrels with the redstarts, see them with their young darting and flurrying among the foliage and gorging on the oakwood caterpillar feast as they prepare for the journey back to their winter home in west Africa.

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David Attenborough has become a household name having taken viewers to every part of the globe, sharing the intimate workings of the natural world. As he celebrates his 90th birthday, David reflects on his life on Earth, the changes he has observed, and the challenges that confront a world full of people.

The ABC’s citizen science project allows everyone to join in the identification of a million wild animals.

It is covered in flamboyantly coloured sausages, it’s a hermaphrodite, breathes through its skin, goes through metamorphoses AND this new species needs a name.

The orca, nicknamed Bob, was dehydrated and emaciated, and refused food offered by scientists trying to save him

The baby orca stranded in Tauranga harbour in New Zealand for more than 20 days has died.

The calf – nicknamed Bob by locals – had been separated from it’s pod in mid-July, and despite the efforts of a task force set up to reunite Bob with his family, his kin were never located.

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Four seasons just aren't enough for some people. Tim Entwisle's come up with 'Sprinter' and, with Matthew Crawford, he investigates some harbingers of the new season — native orchids and migrating cuckoos.

German consumers and farmers are trying to understand each other better, thanks to the push toward sustainable agriculture.

George Monbiot’s article (The climate crisis is already here – but no one’s telling us, 3 August) reinforced something I’ve been aware of since the Paris climate talks – a dearth of information and emphasis in the media regarding action worldwide aiming to ensure that the world’s average temperature doesn’t rise by more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial level.

Why am I hearing about small community efforts to install solar panels in emails from organisations like Friends of the Earth and 10:10 and not on TV or in the papers? Why is it that the decision of the Saudi government to move to renewables was not trumpeted by the media, but had to be searched out online? Why is it that the efforts of organisations like Ethex are not being publicised and praised, giving more people the knowledge they need in order to invest in community renewable energy projects? Above all, why is it that the appalling and shameful lack of action of the Conservative government on reaching the Paris goals is not being more frequently and urgently challenged in the media?

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Your editorial “The future of food and the farming revolution” (4 August) discusses a speech by the director of the National Trust, whose main role is protecting British heritage. That Brexit provides an opportunity to reform agricultural policy is reasonable, but many of the problems outlined were not solely due to failures of the common agricultural policy (CAP). For example, the lack of improved productivity from British farms is largely due to low farm-gate prices that make it hard to justify investment in new techniques. This is exacerbated by the arbitrary management of supermarket contracts. The use of immigrant labour has more to do with rural housing and employment policy, restrictions on the traditional Travellers’ way of life, and lack of employment in eastern Europe, than with the CAP. Neither was CAP responsible for the horse-meat scandal, which was caused by reaction to low prices in the processing industry. Pollution of water courses, due to loss of nutrients, represents an economic disaster for farms, and is caused either by severe weather, or by incompetent management. Management problems have been made worse by the closure of agricultural colleges and the Agricultural Advisory Service.

Butterfly populations are still in decline in spite of the diversion of subsidies into environmental schemes. The lack of planning for individual farms, and the lack of before and after ecological surveys on individual farms, are major contributors to this. While there have been some successes, much of the publicity appears to be green-washing by companies practising uniform management over several different habitats.

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