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Team arrow evaluating level of interest in its prototype ‘commercial’ solar car that it plans to road register by second half of 2017.

Eastern quolls – small, fleet-footed and ferocious – are one of Australia’s few surviving marsupial predators. They were once so common in southeast Australia that when Europeans arrived the quolls were reportedly hyperabundant.

But by the 1960s they were extinct on the mainland, driven down by a combination of disease, poisoning, persecution and predation.

Despite their mainland demise, eastern quolls continued to thrive in Tasmania – until recently. Across Tasmania, quoll numbers declined by more than 50% in the 10 years to 2009 and show no sign of recovery.

Recognising this worrying decline, the quolls have recently been listed as endangered internationally and in Australia. This is a stark reminder of how quickly a common species can plunge towards extinction.

But the quolls can still recover, as long as we act now while we still have an opportunity. In research published in Wildlife Research, I looked at what caused the decline, and how we can help.

Change in the weather

Several factors coincided with the decline, but after five years of investigation I found that a period of unfavourable weather was the most likely explanation.

Eastern quolls prefer areas with low rainfall and cold winters. But an 18-month period of warm winters and higher seasonal rainfall during 2002-03 resulted in most of Tasmania becoming unsuitable for eastern quolls. This rapidly drove their numbers down. In fact, the amount of environmentally suitable habitat in this period was lower than at any other time during the previous 60 years.

With the frequency of extreme weather events predicted to increase over coming decades, the future for eastern quolls looks uncertain.

Eastern quoll numbers declined as unfavourable weather conditions reduced the amount of environmentally suitable habitat across Tasmania (grey shading). Fancourt et al (2015) The predator pit

Interestingly, while weather conditions have since improved, eastern quolls have not recovered. With their numbers pushed so low, the remaining small populations can no longer breed faster than other threats kill them off. Historically, when quoll numbers were higher, they could cope with these threats.

Quolls are now trapped in what ecologists call a “predator pit”. Predators, cars, poison and a range of other threats are killing quolls as quickly as they can reproduce.

So population growth is in limbo – not because any threats have increased, but because small populations don’t have the capacity to outpace those same threats anymore.

Contrary to earlier predictions, feral cat numbers in Tasmania have not increased following declines in the Tasmanian devil population. Quoll populations could previously cope with the loss of a few quolls (mainly juveniles) to cats. However, that same number of quolls killed by cats is now potentially enough to wipe out any population growth, preventing the species’ recovery.

While feral cat numbers have not increased in Tasmania, cat predation of juvenile quolls could still be preventing their population from recovering. Bronwyn Fancourt Numbers game

The key factor preventing quoll recovery is their current small population. Quoll numbers need a boost, increasing reproductive capacity so that they can once again outpace the threats they are facing. This could be done by supplementing small, surviving populations in Tasmanian with quolls from captive-breeding colonies, insurance populations or the wild population on Bruny Island (which is doing better than mainland Tasmania).

Reducing feral cat numbers at key sites in early summer could also help reduce predation as juvenile quolls enter the population. That would potentially increase juvenile survival and allow quoll populations to grow and recover.

Increasing survival rates of juvenile quolls in the wild is key to helping the species recover. Bronwyn Fancourt Should quolls be reintroduced to the mainland?

Since word of the eastern quolls’ plight has spread, there has been increasing talk of reintroducing them to Australia’s mainland, where they disappeared more than 50 years ago. Such proposals are often well-intentioned and could potentially help restore some mainland ecosystems.

However, this could actually serve to drive wild populations in Tasmania closer to extinction, making the species’ recovery more difficult.

With only small populations persisting in the wild, removing only one or two individuals from a population could be enough to render that population functionally extinct – and once a population is functionally extinct it is on the path to total extinction.

Similarly, using quolls from captive colonies and insurance populations for mainland reintroductions further removes valuable quolls that could be used to repopulate and recover wild populations in Tasmania.

The eastern quoll’s persistence in Tasmania decades after it disappeared from the mainland suggests Tasmania is a far safer place for eastern quolls and offers them the best chance to recover. Removing them from a relatively safe place and reintroducing them to high-risk mainland sites filled with dingoes, foxes and toxic fox baits could actually hinder, not help, their recovery. For example, while baiting foxes may reduce the threat from foxes, it takes less than half of one fox bait to kill an adult female eastern quoll.

Mainland reintroductions should definitely be a goal in the longer term. But given the dangerously low numbers in Tasmania, we shouldn’t take Tasmanian quolls for high-risk mainland reintroductions until the Tasmanian population is safe. Once numbers in the wild have recovered, wild-sourced Tasmanian quolls could be reintroduced to mainland sites without putting wild populations at risk.

It’s time to act

Australia’s declining species face a slippery slope towards extinction. The key to recovery is understanding why the species declined, then acting while there is still time.

Australia’s history is littered with examples where delays and inaction prevented small populations from recovering, with some species now lost forever. The eastern quolls’ fate is not yet sealed. But we have to act now.

Bronwyn Fancourt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

The rise in interest in autonomous vehicles is just one indication the era of high numbers of personally owned vehicles in US is coming to an end.

The governing body for our energy market, the Australian Energy Market Commission, has just missed a major opportunity to modernise our electricity networks.

The Australian and Queensland governments today released the first Reef 2050 Plan annual report showing good progress has been made towards protecting the Great Barrier Reef.

Josh Frydenberg says he puts ‘human safety first’ after teenage surfer mauled by a great white at Ballina

The federal government has signalled it would consider a shark cull on the New South Wales north coast after a teenage surfer was mauled by a great white.

It comes as the NSW government announces a new three-month trial of shark-spotting drones for the area, and additional drum lines off the coast.

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Interview with Kichwa leader José Fachín on oil contamination, social struggle and the future of Peru’s biggest region

Indigenous peoples are part blockading one of the main tributaries of the River Amazon and demanding that Peru’s new president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski visit them - with no positive response to date. The protest is one of the latest instances of social unrest across Peru and in Loreto in particular, which, at 50% larger than the UK, is Peru’s biggest and most difficult-to-access region - as well as one of the poorest.

This poverty, together with poor infrastructure and a weak or non-existent state, is particularly outrageous given that some of Peru’s historically most productive oil fields are in Loreto. True, more than 40 years of operations, mostly by foreign companies, have transformed the region to the extent that the economy is now largely dependent on oil, generating wealth through tax revenues and casual employment for many people. But how have such revenues been spent? And what of the fact that the location of the oil fields has meant the systematic invasion and exploitation of huge swathes of indigenous peoples’ territories - allegedly contaminating rivers and local inhabitants, blocking efforts by communities to obtain land title, creating economic dependency, dominating local politics, buying off leaders, misleading community members, dumping trash, wasting staggering amounts of energy and resources, and, in general, leaving precious little behind in terms of infrastructure, basic services, education, beneficial projects and skilled, sustainable employment?

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Garden ponds are playing a role in the spread of deadly frog diseases across the UK, a study suggests.

British conservationist Sacha Dench is on the first leg of an epic 4,500 mile paramotor flight following migrating swans.

Dr Daniel Bucher, a senior lecturer in Marine Biology and Fishery Science at Southern Cross University, says culling isn't a suitable approach.

The federal government will today release the first annual Reef 2050 report, and says 'good progress' is being made towards protecting the Great Barrier Reef.

Small power generators like solar panels take pressure of the electricity grid. Solar image from www.shutterstock.com

The governing body for our energy market, the Australian Energy Market Commission, has just missed a major opportunity to modernise our electricity networks. Last week the commission rejected a proposal to pay credits to small, local generators (such as small wind, solar and gas). Our research shows that this could save electricity consumers A$1.2 billion by 2050.

In July 2015, the City of Sydney, Total Environment Centre and NSW Property Council proposed the Local Generation Network Credit rule change. This would have required network businesses to pay a credit for electricity exported into the distribution grid – that is, close to where it is actually consumed.

This is different to the credit (known as a “feed-in tariff”, or FIT) paid by electricity retailers for solar households that export power, which reflects the energy value of the solar rather than any network value. FITs are a fixed payment for the amount of power exported with no variation for the time of day. In most states, retailer FITs have replaced generous mandatory FITs set by state governments, and usually have an upper limit on system size somewhere between 5 and 100 kilowatts.

The network rule change would have been a small but crucial step towards recognising that in the future electricity will flow both to and from consumers, as more and more individuals, communities and businesses install their own generation.

It is just one of the rule changes needed to make an orderly, efficient transition, rather than a cycle where consumers get more and more frustrated as they are forced into workarounds to deal with outdated regulations, and regulators and markets play catch-up.

The cost of connection

About half of our electricity prices are made up of network charges. These cover the cost of building and maintaining the poles and wires that get electricity from generators to our homes and businesses. Traditionally, that was a long way, as electricity all came from large centralised generators.

This is all changing, as homes and businesses increasingly install their own solar, wind or gas generators. These trends are being driven by the increase in electricity prices, cost reductions in renewable energy, and a range of other motives such as climate targets, aspirations for self-sufficiency, and wishing to take control of energy spending.

Network costs have been the main contributor to a big jump in Australian electricity prices over the last 15 years. There was a huge investment to cope with the projected rise in electricity demand, which has so far failed to happen.

Described as “gold plating”, it would have been smarter and cheaper to do a whole mix of other things – energy efficiency, local generation and so on – instead of the big investment focused on network infrastructure.

Because the electricity from local generators is used physically close to where it is generated, it reduces congestion on the network and so can reduce the need to upgrade. The proposed rule change is aimed at rewarding local generators for export at peak times, when the network is under most strain, and so avoiding the long-term need for network investment.

The rule change would also enable many local generation projects, and keep them using the network to share energy. Without this incentive most generators will use their energy onsite rather than exporting to the grid.

This gets the biggest return, as it means each unit you generate avoids the entire volume charge of a unit imported from the grid.

Consumers lose out

But what if you have several buildings and want to generate at one and use it at the other? Tough luck.

Unless you can connect those buildings with a private wire – instead of connecting them via the grid – it’s unlikely to be economic. Consumers pay the same network charges whether the energy is transported across the road or halfway across the state.

This rule change would have meant that you got a network credit for the generation, and therefore helped reduce what you pay to use the network. It would be a win-win for everyone, as putting in a private wire is just duplication of the network that already exists and makes everyone – the network business, the organisation and, by implication, other consumers – worse off.

Of course, a private wire isn’t possible in all situations, but the principle remains: the local network credit offers an alternative to behind-the-meter generation.

The Institute for Sustainable Futures recently led a year-long project looking at local generation network credits and local electricity trading. The results showed pretty clearly that, if designed well, this rule change would be good for local energy projects and good for electricity consumers.

As a result of the economic modelling, we recommended that existing systems and all small (less than 10 kilowatt) systems do not receive the network credit, in order to maximise benefits for everyone. The payments are unlikely to make a difference to whether those small systems go in, and paying them the credit would means an overall cost, rather than a long-term benefit of A$1.2 billion for everyone.

This was a change from the original proposal and was presented to the AEMC in great detail. The rule change proponents were also quite happy with these limits being imposed.

So what did the AEMC decide?

The AEMC considers rule change proposals – and accepts, rejects, or makes what is called a “preferred rule”. It is a very arcane process, with little scope for collaborative outcomes.

On this issue, the AEMC delivered a “preferred rule” – which does nothing to solve the problem. The commission ignored the opportunity to work with stakeholders to deliver an alternative rule that would benefit both local projects and all consumers.

Instead, it proposes that network businesses be required to provide information on upcoming constraints, including a dollar value for alternatives to network investment. That’s all well and good, except that the information is already available in the form of Network Opportunity Maps.

Unfortunately it’s just more evidence that the AEMC has lost touch with what is actually happening in the market, and with what consumers want.

So where to now? There is a six-week consultation period on the draft rule – and we can only hope that the AEMC reconsiders its decision.

Jay Rutovitz will be online for an Author Q&A between 4 and 5pm on Wednesday, September 28, 2016. Post any questions you have in the comments below.

The research by Institute for Sustainable Futures was supported by funding from ARENA, UTS, Ergon Energy, Moira Shire Council, Swan Hill Rural City Council, Wannon Water, City of Sydney, Byron Shire Council, and Willoughby City Council, with in-kind support from AGL, NSW Government Department of Industry, Powercor the Total Environment Centre, and other project participants.

A blue topaz stone, thought to be the largest-ever, is to go on permanent loan to the Natural History Museum in London.

Protest follows report linking company’s suppliers in Indonesia to deforestation, forest fires and human rights abuses

Greenpeace activists have blockaded a palm oil refinery owned by IOI in the port of Rotterdam after a report linked the company’s third-party suppliers in Indonesia to deforestation, forest fires and human rights abuses, including child labour.

For seven hours on Tuesday, a felled tree barricaded the entrance to the Croklaan refinery, which processes palm oil mostly sourced from Indonesia and Malaysia.

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After days expensively moored awaiting party in its honour, Ineos ship carrying shale gas from US fails to make entrance

There are some things even a billionaire petrochemicals baron can’t control.

Jim Ratcliffe, the founder-chairman of Anglo-Swiss firm Ineos, had carefully choreographed the arrival of the company’s first shipment of shale gas from the US. Its planned arrival in Scotland was the culmination of a $2bn (£1.5bn) investment designed to make its loss-making Grangemouth plant profitable again, not to mention a high-profile platform to lobby publicly for Britain to launch a fracking revolution.

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Federal government figures show sulphur dioxide, hydrochloric acid, fine particle pollution and mercury output rose steeply in 2014-15

Toxic emissions from the power plant that made AGL Australia’s largest carbon polluter surged in the year the gas company acquired it, commonwealth figures reveal.

Bayswater power station in New South Wales recorded double-digit rises in sulphur dioxide, hydrochloric acid, fine particle pollution and mercury output in 2014-15, according to the National Pollutant Inventory.

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Scientists have pre-programmed materials to change their shape over time.

A singularly distinguished roster of scientists, and others, with an interest in wildlife conservation have signed a petition calling for Theresa May to impose a “total UK ban on ivory sales” (Conservationists and MPs call for a total UK ban on ivory sales, theguardian.com, 22 September), claiming that Andrea Leadsom’s announcement of a ban on post-1947 ivory “falls short of what is needed”. I beg to differ.

The entire community of art historians, curators, connoisseurs and collectors unequivocally supports the preservation of endangered species. But by the same token it can be said with confidence that bona fide, pre-1947 works of art documented by Cites (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species) made of or incorporating ivory have no impact whatsoever on the thirst for modern tusks and trinkets: these are two utterly separate issues.

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The world's first baby has been born using a new "three person" fertility technique, heralding a new era in medicine, say experts.

Entrepreneur Elon Musk outlines his vision for establishing a human colony on Mars for people that can afford a $200,000 ticket price.