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Melbourne's Yarra river deadliest for drowning deaths in Australia
Men in late 20s and early 30s with alcohol or drugs in their system the most frequent victims of fatal river drowning
Risk-taking young men who drown trying to swim Melbourne’s Yarra river are making it the deadliest inland river per metre in Australia.
New data shows alcohol, drugs, tourists and young men who dare each other to swim the river are contributing to regular drownings.
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Europe will benefit hugely from keeping global warming to 1.5°C
From heatwaves to intense rainfall and severe cold weather, Europe experiences its fair share of weather extremes.
In an open access study, published in Environmental Research Letters, David Karoly and I have found that without limiting global warming, Europe is likely to see even more severe heat, less frequent extreme cold, and more intense rain events.
The Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to limit the global temperature increase to “well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃”, so as to “significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.
Read more: What is a pre-industrial climate and why does it matter?
Our analysis compares temperature and rainfall extremes under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ levels of global warming, with these same events in the current climate (with global warming of just over 1℃) and a pre-industrial climate.
Hotter, and more frequent, heat extremesAs the world warms up, so does Europe, although more in the Mediterranean and the east and less over Scandinavia and the British Isles.
We studied changes in a few different heat events, including hot summers like the record of 2003 in Central Europe. A blocking high pressure pattern led to persistent sunny hot weather across much of the continent, which dried out the region and enhanced the heat. Temperature records tumbled across the continent, with new national records for daily maximum temperatures in France, the UK and other countries. Previous work has already found a clear human fingerprint in both the event itself and the excess deaths associated with the heat.
Our study projects hot summers like 2003 will become more frequent at 1.5℃ and 2℃ of global warming. At 2℃ of global warming, Central European hot summers like 2003 would very likely occur in most years.
![](https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188313/width754/file-20171002-12126-1bmxv9i.png)
We also find an increasing likelihood of events like the recent record hot year in Europe in 2016 and the record hot year in Central England in 2014 under the Paris Agreement’s targeted levels of global warming.
… But fewer, and less intense, cold extremesThe December of 2010 was exceptionally cold across the British Isles, as a lack of weather systems crossing the Atlantic allowed air from the north and the east to frequently cross the region. There was a new cold temperature record for Northern Ireland and persistent cold weather across the UK and Ireland, with long runs of sub-zero days. Heavy snowfall caused widespread disruption for days at a time.
Our analysis finds that such a cold December was already very unlikely to occur in the current climate, and would be extremely unlikely under either 1.5℃ or 2℃ of global warming. Future cold weather events would still be associated with similar weather patterns, but the background warming in the climate system would make them less intense than in the world of today or under pre-industrial conditions.
When it rains, it poursWe also studied extreme rain events, in particular the heavy rain that led to large-scale flooding in England and Wales in May, June and July of 2007. Low pressure systems passed over the British Isles almost continually for that three-month period, so the rain was falling on already saturated ground. On July 19 and 20 more than 100mm of rain fell on a broad swathe of the English Midlands. This record-breaking rainfall resulted in some of the worst floods in British history.
![](https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188316/width754/file-20171002-12122-6exxi8.jpg)
Extended rainy periods like May-July 2007 are very rare, and not projected to become more frequent at 1.5℃ or 2℃ of global warming.
However, extreme rainfall days like we saw during that period are projected to become both more frequent and more intense in a warmer world. In a 2℃ world we would expect very heavy rain days to be at least 70% more frequent than in the current climate over the UK and Ireland.
Clear benefits to keeping a lid on global warmingMany of the most costly extreme weather events in Europe, in particular extreme heat and intense rainfall events, are projected to become more common, even at the relatively low levels of global warming that are being targeted under the Paris Agreement.
![](https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188317/width754/file-20171002-12115-1x4bfgw.png)
The worst impacts of these events can be avoided through improving the planning and responses for such events, whether it is increasing support for the elderly in France during summer heatwaves or improving flood protection on major rivers in Britain.
However, limiting global warming to 1.5℃, rather than 2℃ or more, would reduce the frequency with which these extreme event responses would need to be implemented.
Put simply, to prevent a more extreme future for Europe’s weather, we need to keep the lid on global warming.
![The Conversation](https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85009/count.gif)
Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
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The oil and gas sector needs to diversify if it wants to prosper
![](https://theconversation.imgix.net/files/188725/original/file-20171004-6753-1sycgxe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip)
One does not have to look far to see signs that the oil and gas industry has a bumpy road ahead. Demand might stay high for decades, but given the dizzying pace of technological change, who would bet on that?
Take the recent pledges by India, France, Britain, and China to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles. Or the plummeting costs of grid-scale solar power, rapidly becoming cheaper than fossil-fuelled electricity.
These developments should cause oil and gas companies to think very carefully about their next move. Big investments in natural gas globally, made on the assumption that gas is a bridge to a clean energy future, may fall flat because renewables are developing so swiftly.
The fact of the matter is that oil and gas companies need to start planning for a low-carbon future and embrace the opportunities it presents. One approach is to diversify their products and embrace renewable energy, one of four strategies that CSIRO has identified in its industry-led Oil and Gas Roadmap that outlines some of the future directions the industry might take.
Read more: Big oil’s offshore scramble is risky business all round
With 40% of companies involved in the exploration and production of petroleum likely to move away from oil and gas in 2017, solar photovoltaics and energy storage offer alternative avenues in which oil and gas companies can invest.
Renewables can be integrated into operations to reduce both the cost and the carbon intensity of operations. In the longer term, these technologies could help energy companies to develop more sophisticated offerings. For instance, hybrid solar and gas microgrids could be sold to developing nations, allowing them to leapfrog from energy poverty into clean, cheap distributed energy for all, effectively skipping expensive, centralised electricity grid infrastructure.
The Oil and Gas roadmap. Gas-powered shipsTwo more strategic opportunities focus on expanding the potential of the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel: natural gas.
For example, global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) for transport is expected to grow fourfold to 100 million tonnes a year by 2030, a prime target being maritime shipping. Meeting this LNG demand could open up a valuable market for Australia.
Another opportunity lies in the creation of higher-value products. Natural gas can be converted to many refined products that can fetch higher margins in the market, including diesel and other chemicals such as methanol and dimethyl ether.
More investment is needed to make conversion technology economically competitive, but it would be a wise investment, especially in light of Australia’s lack of domestic strategic fuel reserves.
Read more: Running on empty: Australia’s risky approach to oil supplies
Hydrogen fuel is another possibility for Australian resource companies. It can be produced from gas, but in the future hydrogen fuel could also be manufactured by solar-powered electrolysis of water. Both would be good options, given Australia’s abundance of gas and sunlight.
Investments will be needed to improve the production and transport economics of hydrogen, including the development of efficient technologies that can convert hydrogen carriers (like ammonia) to hydrogen at the point of use.
![](https://cdn.theconversation.com/files/188719/width754/file-20171004-6708-zyu9qf.png)
Our roadmap also suggests other ways for companies to get involved in the energy transition, by becoming more efficient, less wasteful, and more productive.
Advanced environmental solutions point to ways to improve water quality and reuse, reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions (including sequestering carbon dioxide, controlling fugitive emissions, and finding alternatives to flaring), and finding the best ways to decommission assets like wells and offshore platforms after their useful life is over.
The industry needs to be much more efficient in exploring and producing oil and gas so that the life of existing assets can be lengthened, often using less environmentally damaging approaches such as waterless fracturing and reservoir rejuvenation using microbes. Robots and artificial intelligence could also help to improve efficiency and safety.
The oil and gas sector has an important role to play in the future of the energy sector, but that role is changing. Companies need to be proactive to remain relevant. If they pursue some of the opportunities outlined here, they will help ensure they stay viable into the future.
![The Conversation](https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85176/count.gif)
Jerad A. Ford has previously received research funding and scholarships from the UQ Centre for Coal Seam Gas while a student and post-doc researcher at the University of Queensland Business School.
Sputnik's influence
The day we witnessed wildlife rangers being gunned down in Congo
When two Dutch journalists travelled to the DRC to report on illegal gold mining in the vast Okapi wildlife reserve, they ended up running for their lives
Conflict is never far away in the Democratic Republic of Congo – a country rich in natural resources such as gold, diamonds, coltan and tin – and the country is on the brink of a new civil war. Tensions have been rising since December, when President Joseph Kabila postponed the elections.
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