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The large-scale renewable energy PPA RFP is part of UTS's continued commitment to the sustainability of its operations, which includes rooftop solar PV installations on several campus buildings and energy efficiency measures.

Tesla, Neoen win South Australia battery storage tender, with Tesla to build 100MW facility at Neon's Hornsdale wind farm.

France's announcement that it willban all petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 is an urgent wake-up call for Australian governments to take immediate action to support growth in the domestic industry.

France bans sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2040, underling just how quickly the transition to electric vehicles is likely to happen.

Australia's birds face a number of threats, including habitat destruction and climate change.

Last summer was the fourth worst since scientific monitoring began in 1976, but let’s be delighted and count these small blessings

I don’t want to jinx it so I’m only whispering but, shhh, we may be blessed with a half-decent butterfly summer. Last week, I saw a purple emperor, tipsy on sap from an old oak, lurching around a meadow on a deeply overcast day that normally only brings out the ringlets and meadow browns.

Like most of our 59 native butterflies, the midsummer-loving purple emperor has emerged ten days earlier than usual. On the exuberant rewilded farmland of Knepp Castle, West Sussex, there are more emperors flying than anywhere else in the country. This iridescent beauty inspires great obsession and its leading devotees, Matthew Oates of the National Trust and Butterfly Conservation’s Neil Hulme, spotted 148 emperors in one day last week. That’s extreme butterflying.

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Climate teams: if countries pooled resources, they could support a low-emission transformation. CC BY-ND

Despite the US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, other countries, including New Zealand, remain committed to cutting their greenhouse gas emissions.

In our report, we explore how New Zealand, a trailblazer for emissions trading, might drive a low-emission transformation, both at home and overseas.

Turning off the tap

Emitting greenhouse gases is a lot like overflowing a bathtub. Even a slow trickle will eventually flood the room.

The Paris Agreement gives all countries a common destination: net zero emissions during the second half of the century. It is also an acknowledgement that the world has only a short time to turn the tide on emissions and limit global temperature rise to below two degrees. The sooner we turn down the tap, the more time we have for developing solutions.

Time is running out on meeting the goal of keeping global temperature rise below two degrees. from Unsplash, CC BY-ND

New Zealand’s 2030 commitment is to reduce emissions 30% below 2005 levels (11% below 1990). In 2015, our emissions (excluding forestry) were 24% above 1990 levels. The government projects a gap of 235 million tonnes between what has been pledged and what New Zealand will actually emit in the period from 2021 to 2030.

Reducing emissions rapidly enough within New Zealand to achieve our Paris commitment could be extremely expensive, and even at a cost of NZ$300 per tonne, the target could not be met through domestic action alone.

International emission reductions help bridge the gap. New Zealand could turn off its own greenhouse gas tap while supporting other countries to do the same.

Joining forces across borders

In the past, New Zealand relied heavily on the global Kyoto carbon market and purchased international emission reductions using the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Some ETS firms bought low-cost overseas Kyoto units of questionable integrity while domestic emissions continued to rise.

In 2015, New Zealand pulled out of the Kyoto carbon market and its ETS is now a domestic-only system.

Under the Paris Agreement, carbon markets have changed in three important ways:

• Currently, international emission reductions can be traded only from government to government. It is no longer possible for NZ ETS participants to buy international units directly from the market.

• International emission reductions sold as offsets to other countries will have to be additional to the seller’s own Paris target.

• Countries have flexibility to trade international emission reductions through arrangements outside of the central UN mechanism which is at an early stage of development.

A new approach to reducing emissions

What does this mean for New Zealand? First, we cannot and must not rely on international markets to set our future domestic emission price.

Second, as both taxpayers and responsible global citizens, we need to decide where to fund emission reductions. Most mitigation opportunities are in developing countries. The benefits of investing in lower-cost reductions overseas need to be weighed against the costs of deferring strategic investment in New Zealand’s own low-emission transformation.

Third, we need an effective mechanism to direct New Zealand’s contribution to mitigation overseas.

In collaboration with others, Motu researchers are prototyping a new approach: a results-based agreement between buyer and seller governments within a climate team.

For example, New Zealand could partner with other buyers – such as Australia, South Korea or Norway – to pool funding at a scale that provides incentives for a country with a developing or emerging economy – such as Colombia or Chile – to invest in low-emission transformation beyond its Paris target. These countries could then create a more favourable environment for low-emission investment – including by New Zealand companies.

Emissions trading could play an important role in New Zealand’s transition to a low-emissions economy. from Unsplash, CC BY-ND Retooling the ETS for domestic decarbonisation

So far, New Zealand has been moving at speed but in the wrong direction, relying heavily on international emission reductions to meet its targets from 2008 through 2020 while domestic emissions continued to rise. Gross emissions (excluding forestry) are projected to climb 29% above 1990 gross emission levels by 2030 under current measures. This is a far cry from our 2030 Paris target of net emissions of 30% below 2005 gross emission levels (11% below 1990).

New Zealand’s ETS has an important role to play in achieving a successful low-emission domestic economy, but it needs to be properly equipped.

Unlike other financial markets, the purpose of an ETS market is more than price discovery, resource allocation and liquidity. It is designed to create a change in behaviour to reduce emissions. Prices are driven not just by the interplay of demand and supply, but by current policy decisions, emission reduction opportunities, and expectations about future decisions and opportunities.

Since de-linking from the Kyoto market in mid-2015, NZ ETS participants have had no certainty on how to invest. They need clear near-term signals for unit supply and cost and predictable processes for longer-term decision making.

Five changes to make the emissions trading work

1. Introducing a cap (fixed limit) on NZ ETS units sold or freely allocated by the government will define supply and enable the market to set an efficient price. In the past, the NZ ETS borrowed the global Kyoto cap, which essentially allowed unlimited domestic supply. The Kyoto cap is no longer available and we have committed to reducing domestic emissions.

2. Establishing a price band will provide a minimum and maximum emission price limit, set by government. A price floor will guarantee a minimum return on low-emission investment and a price ceiling will safeguard against upside price shocks. When the floor and ceiling are far apart, the market has latitude when setting the price. The closer they are, the more the government manages the price. The price band will be implemented at auction and replace the current fixed-price option set at NZ$25 per tonne.

3. Fixing both the cap and the price band for five years and extending them by one year each year will provide short-term certainty. The government will also need to set indicative trajectories for caps and price bands for a further 10 years in alignment with its decarbonisation objectives. This will enable long-term decision-making.

4. Given the technical complexity of the ETS, we recommend that an independent body be tasked with advising government on ETS supply and price settings. Ultimately however, decisions on caps and price bands are political and therefore should be taken by government, with transparency and public accountability.

5. The era of top-down carbon markets, unlimited unit supply and rising domestic emissions has ended. Right now, only governments can purchase international emissions reductions. In the longer term, ETS participants may also be able to do so. However, the quantity must be limited and displace other supply under the cap to avoid devaluing domestic investment and disrupting New Zealand’s progress toward decarbonisation. All international emission reductions applied toward New Zealand’s targets must be quality assured to manage risks with environmental integrity.

These adjustments can be achieved through practical legislative amendments and regulation. There is merit in implementing these changes as soon as possible so that low-emission investors and emitters can get on the road.

Setting the ambition of domestic ETS caps and price bands can be politically challenging. That is why New Zealand skipped this step the first time around and borrowed the Kyoto ones instead. Under the Paris Agreement, New Zealand needs to establish a resilient policy architecture with cross-party support that offers predictable processes to guide future political decision making. It’s time for us to forge our own pathway to a successful low-emission economy.

This article was prepared by Suzi Kerr, Catherine Leining and Ceridwyn Roberts at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. The supporting paper was funded by the Aotearoa Foundation and informed by participants in Motu’s ETS Dialogue. The content does not necessarily represent the views of or endorsement by ETS Dialogue participants, their organisation or the funder.

Suzi Kerr is a Senior Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust, a not-for-profit research organisation in New Zealand, and an adjunct professor at Victoria University of Wellington. Motu’s work through the ETS Dialogue on reforming the NZ Emissions Trading Scheme has been funded by the Aotearoa Foundation.

A mission to Mercury is getting closer to the launch pad.

Prospect of seasonal labour crisis prompts calls for introducing new scheme to ensure UK farms have enough workers to pick fruit and veg

The price of British strawberries could rise by 50% if ministers fail to plug growing gaps in seasonal labour which are expected to get worse after Brexit, MPs have heard.

The prospect of a £3 punnet of strawberries was raised by MPs as they called for a new seasonal agricultural workers scheme to be introduced by next year – or sooner – to stop the shortage of EU labour becoming a crisis.

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Officials say world’s ‘largest ever’ seizure of about 7.2 tonnes of ivory has an estimated street value of $72m

Authorities in Hong Kong have announced what they say is the world’s largest ever seizure of about 7.2 tonnes of ivory tusks with an estimated street value close to $72m.

If the size of the haul is verified, it will replace the current record held by Singapore for a seizure of 7.138 tonnes of ivory tusks in 2002.

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Scientists have detected a new particle at the Large Hadron Collider at Cern

Exotic migrants to the UK have set up home in a quarry owned by a sand mining company – an industry that is destroying wildlife habitats worldwide

At the end of June some exotic migrants flew into the country who have been enthusiastically welcomed by the Daily Mail. Following a hazardous journey from southern Europe a gang of seven bee-eaters have set up home in a desolate quarry in Nottinghamshire.

But while their presence is an inspiring example of the benefits of free movement, their choice of a quarry owned by Mexican minerals multinational Cemex raises some difficult questions about the relationship conservation has with big business.

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A week after the Chinese bike sharing scheme hit Manchester, the Guardian’s North of England editor Helen Pidd is already hooked

I was sceptical about Manchester’s new hire bikes, fearing they would all end up at the bottom of the Ship Canal.

Yet just a week after Chinese firm Mobike plonked 1,000 silver and orange two-wheelers on the streets of Manchester and Salford, I’m already a convert. Yes, there have been a few glitches with the app (you’re supposed to be able to reserve a bike for 15 minutes but I haven’t been able to for a few days), and I’ve no idea what those messages say that they’ve sent me in Chinese. But Mobikes are significantly better than London’s hire bikes, or any I’ve tried in other cities across the world. Here’s why:

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A two-week-old pygmy hippopotamus steps out under the care of its mum, at an animal park in Santiago.

Roy Morgan research shows almost one in four Australian households own solar panels – almost one-third in South Australia.

Invitation to comment closes 14th July.

Charities have obtained supplies of the vaccine following a shortage last year but the government’s vaccination programme won’t resume until 2018

Wildlife charities have resumed vaccinating badgers against bovine TB after a global shortage of the vaccine caused it to be suspended last year.

But more badgers than ever before are set to be culled this summer as Wales follows England in introducing a targeted cull in a bid to reduce bovine TB.

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Elephants are being exploited to entertain tourists in south-east Asia, and kept in harsh conditions, says a new report from an animal rights NGO

Thousands of elephants being used for entertainment across Asia are kept in cruel, abusive conditions fuelled by the growing tourism industry, World Animal Protection has found.

Three out of four elephants surveyed in south-east Asia’s popular tourist destinations are living in harsh conditions where they are being used for rides, with mostly steel or wooden saddles, and tied in chains less than three metres long.

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This June was the seventh-warmest and second-driest on record for Australia. Parts of the southwest and southeast saw record dry conditions as frontal systems passed further south than normal and high pressure exerted its influence on the continent.

Australia’s second-driest June on record saw unusually dry conditions over most of the continent but more rain than average for Sydney and northeast New South Wales. Bureau of Meteorology

While many of us will have enjoyed warm, dry weather, farmers in the south of the country will be concerned at the lack of winter rain for their crops. Winter is the dominant season for rainfall, especially in the southwest of the continent, so a return to wetter conditions would be welcome.

There are already indications of drought developing across the west coast of Western Australia and in other areas of the country.

Did climate change play a role?

To deduce whether climate change had an influence on this particular event, I used two sets of climate model simulations: one representing the world of today and another representing a world without human influences (that is, with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations).

I compared the likelihood and magnitude of dry Junes in the two sets of simulations to determine the net effect of human-caused climate change.

I looked at the climate change influence on very dry Junes (such as the one we’ve just experienced) both for Australia as a whole, and for the southeast, which had its driest June on record. Both of these areas received well below half of their average June rainfall in June 2017.

Southeast Australia had its driest June on record this year. Bureau of Meteorology

For Australia-wide June rainfall, I found a clear climate change signal towards drier conditions.

According to my analysis, climate change has increased the likelihood of very dry Junes by at least a third. The driest Junes now are about 12% drier than they would be in the absence of human greenhouse emissions.

When I looked at southeast Australia, however, I found that the influence of climate change is less clear.

My analysis suggested that climate change has probably increased the chance of dry conditions, although there is more uncertainty than for Australia as a whole.

That said, the driest Junes appear to be drier in the world of today than they would have been without climate change, by about 8% in the case of southeast Australia.

It’s not surprising that the result for southeast Australia is less distinct. Generally speaking, the smaller the area, the harder it is to detect an influence of climate change, as there is more year-to-year variability.

What can we expect in future?

The Paris Agreement aims to hold global warming well below 2℃ and preferably at around 1.5℃ above pre-industrial average temperatures. For context, we have had a little over 1℃ of global warming so far, so we’re more than two-thirds of the way to the 1.5℃ target already.

Under either a 1.5℃ or 2℃ global warming target, I project that dry Junes in Australia will become more frequent. For the southeast of the continent the picture is less clear, with high uncertainty in the change we might see.

Climate change is increasing the likelihood of dry Junes for Australia as a whole, but the signal is less clear over the southeast. The best estimate likelihoods are shown with 90% confidence intervals in parentheses. Author provided

The trend towards drier Junes across Australia is related to the southward shift in the storm track, the prevailing westerly winds that bring frontal weather systems across southern Australia. June 2017 is a very clear example of this effect.

Scientists use the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) to describe the position of the storm track. It has been trending towards more “positive” conditions, reflecting a poleward movement in the frontal systems which typically causes them to pass to the south of the Australian landmass.

These positive SAM phases bring drier conditions to most of Australia, but wetter conditions to coastal New South Wales. This is precisely what we have seen in June 2017.

As the effects of climate change intensify in the coming years, scientists expect to see the frontal systems that bring vital rainfall to the south of Australia moving further and further south. This increases the chance of Australia experiencing more dry Junes like the one just passed. Increasing temperatures will cause greater evaporation when there is rainfall, further exacerbating drought conditions.

You can find full details of the methods used in this analysis here.

Disclosure

Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

A new paper improves our estimate of the climate's sensitivity to carbon dioxide. NASA/Wikimedia Commons

One of the key questions about climate change is the strength of the greenhouse effect. In scientific terms this is described as “climate sensitivity”. It’s defined as the amount Earth’s average temperature will ultimately rise in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

Climate sensitivity has been hard to pin down accurately. Climate models give a range of 1.5-4.5℃ per doubling of CO₂, whereas historical weather observations suggest a smaller range of 1.5-3.0℃ per doubling of CO₂.

In a new study published in Science Advances, Cristian Proistosescu and Peter J. Huybers of Harvard University resolve this discrepancy, by showing that the models are likely to be right.

According to their statistical analysis, historical weather observations reveal only a portion of the planet’s full response to rising CO₂ levels. The true climate sensitivity will only become manifest on a time scale of centuries, due to effects that researchers call “slow climate feedbacks”.

Fast and slow

To understand this, it is important to know precisely what we mean when we talk about climate sensitivity. So-called “equilibrium climate sensitivity”, or slow climate feedbacks, refers to the ultimate consequence of climate response – in other words, the final effects and environmental consequences that a given greenhouse gas concentration will deliver.

These can include long-term climate feedback processes such as ice sheet disintegration with consequent changes in Earth’s surface reflection (albedo), changes to vegetation patterns, and the release of greenhouse gases such as methane from soils, tundra or ocean sediments. These processes can take place on time scales of centuries or more. As such they can only be predicted using climate models based on prehistoric data and paleoclimate evidence.

On the other hand, when greenhouse gas forcing rises at a rate as high as 2–3 parts per million (ppm) of CO₂ per year, as is the case during the past decade or so, the rate of slow feedback processes may be accelerated.

Measurements of atmosphere and marine changes made since the Industrial Revolution (when humans first began the mass release of greenhouse gases) capture mainly the direct warming effects of CO₂, as well as short-term feedbacks such as changes to water vapour and clouds.

A study led by climatologist James Hansen concluded that climate sensitivity is about 3℃ for a doubling of CO₂ when considering only short-term feedbacks. However, it’s potentially as high as 6℃ when considering a final equilibrium involving much of the West and East Antarctic ice melting, if and when global greenhouse levels transcend the 500-700ppm CO₂ range.

This illustrates the problem with using historical weather observations to estimate climate sensitivity – it assumes the response will be linear. In fact, there are factors in the future that can push the curve upwards and increase climate variability, including transient reversals that might interrupt long-term warming. Put simply, temperatures have not yet caught up with the rising greenhouse gas levels.

Prehistoric climate records for the Holocene (10,000-250 years ago), the end of the last ice age roughly 11,700 years ago, and earlier periods such as the Eemian (around 115,000-130,000 years ago) suggest equilibrium climate sensitivities as high as 7.1-8.7℃.

So far we have experienced about 1.1℃ of average global warming since the Industrial Revolution. Over this time atmospheric CO₂ levels have risen from 280ppm to 410ppm – and the equivalent of more than 450ppm after factoring in the effects of all the other greenhouse gases besides CO₂.

Estimate of climate forcing for 1750-2000. Author provided Crossing the threshold

Climate change is unlikely to proceed in a linear way. Instead, there is a range of potential thresholds, tipping points, and points of no return that can be crossed during either warming or transient short-lived cooling pauses followed by further warming.

The prehistoric records of the cycles between ice ages, namely intervening warmer “interglacial” periods, reveal several such events, such as the big freeze that suddenly took hold about 12,900 years ago, and the abrupt thaw about 8,200 years ago.

In the prehistoric record, sudden freezing events (called “stadial events”) consistently follow peak interglacial temperatures.

Such events could include the collapse of the Atlantic Mid-Ocean Circulation (AMOC), with consequent widespread freezing associated with influx of extensive ice melt from the Greenland and other polar ice sheets. The influx of cold ice-melt water would abort the warm salt-rich AMOC, leading to regional cooling such as is recorded following each temperature peak during previous interglacial periods.

Over the past few years cold water pools south of Greenland have indicated such cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. The current rate of global warming could potentially trigger the AMOC to collapse.

A collapse of the AMOC, which climate “sceptics” would no doubt welcome as “evidence of global cooling”, would represent a highly disruptive transient event that would damage agriculture, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of the cumulative build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere such a cool pause is bound to be followed by resumed heating, consistent with IPCC projections.

The growth in the cold water region south of Greenland, heralding a possible collapse of the Atlantic Mid-Ocean Circulation. Author provided

Humanity’s release of greenhouse gases is unprecedented in speed and scale. But if we look far enough back in time we can get some clues as to what to expect. Around 56 million years ago, Earth experienced warming by 5-8℃ lasting several millennia, after a sudden release of methane-triggered feedbacks that caused the CO₂ level rise to around 1,800ppm.

Yet even that sudden rise of CO₂ levels was lower by a large factor than the current CO₂ rise rate of 2-3ppm per year. At this rate, unprecedented in Earth’s recorded history of the past 65 million years (with the exception of the consequences of asteroid impacts), the climate may be entering truly uncharted territory.

Andrew Glikson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.