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WARMING OCEANS: Great swathes of the temperate kelp forests on Western Australia's reefs that underpin tourism and fisheries industries worth $10 billion annually are gone.

The Chinese icebreaker Xue Long sails from Fremantle Harbour on its way home from Antarctica. Bahnfrend/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Antarctica’s early history was marked by national rivalries – think of Britain and Norway racing to the South Pole in 1911. But since the signing of the Antarctic Treaty in 1959, collaboration has become more important than competition. And the relationship between Australia – Antarctica’s biggest territorial claimant – and China, the emerging superpower, is among the most crucial of all.

One of Australia’s key aims, as set out in its Antarctic Strategy and 20 Year Action Plan, is to strengthen the existing Antarctic Treaty system, by “building and maintaining strong and effective relationships with other Antarctic Treaty nations through international engagement”.

As Australia’s largest trading partner and a significant player in Antarctica, China is a crucial nation with which to engage if Australia is to meet its objectives. This raises the question of how the two countries might fruitfully cooperate in Antarctica over the next 20 years.

Existing ties

China began its first scientific expedition to Antarctica in 1984. It now has four Antarctic bases, two on Australian-claimed territory.

Australia and China’s Antarctic ties have thus been evolving for more than three decades, with a focus on science, logistics and operations. Bilateral relations seem to have strengthened in recent years.

In 2014, President Xi Jinping visited Hobart and signed a memorandum of understanding with Australia to collaborate in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.

Last year, Australia’s Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre signed an agreement with its Chinese counterpart, the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Centre, to develop new forecasting methods to aid the challenging task of navigating Antarctic sea ice.

February 2016 saw the inaugural meeting of the China-Australia Joint Committee on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Collaboration, which arose from the 2014 agreement.

But it has not all been smooth sailing. China has strongly opposed Australia’s proposal to establish a network of marine protected areas off East Antarctica.

Proposed marine parks off East Antarctica. Australian Antarctic Division

Australia is also concerned about China’s presence in Antarctica. For example, a news article at the time of Xi’s 2014 visit suggested that “China may eventually try to overthrow the Antarctic Treaty system underpinning Australia’s claim to 43% of the frozen continent”, while questions have been asked about the scope of China’s mining ambitions on the frozen continent.

Potential future collaborations

There are several reasons, however, to expect that China and Australia can put aside their diplomatic differences in pursuit of Antarctic science.

First, it seems more likely that China will continue to endorse the Antarctic Treaty than to undermine it. As a rising power, China has growing interests in the Southern Ocean but it has no territorial claim in Antarctica. It would certainly not be at the front of the queue in the ensuing land grab if the treaty were to end.

Realistically, China should therefore continue to support the treaty, under which the seven existing national claims (plus any prospective claim by the United States, which has a research base at the South Pole) are suspended.

This logic is backed up by China’s behaviour with regard to the even more politically fraught North Pole. By becoming an observer of the Arctic Council, China has opted to embrace rather than challenge the current Arctic regime, despite the jockeying among Arctic nations over territorial rights.

Second, to maintain Australia’s leadership and excellence in Antarctic science, it will need to collaborate with industry and other nations. As an economic powerhouse, China has both the funding and the technology to deliver things like icebreaker ships, a well as a keen interest in Antarctica, which should extend to long-term scientific collaborations.

Third, Australia wants to maintain its leadership in environmental stewardship of Antarctica. One current hurdle seems to be China’s opposition to Australia, France and the European Union over the planned marine protected areas off East Antarctica. As the world’s largest fishing nation, China’s reluctance to support “no-take zones” is hardly surprising.

Nevertheless, this issue could potentially be converted from obstacle to opportunity, perhaps by Australia inviting Chinese scientists to conduct joint scientific research in these areas of the Southern Ocean. This would not only improve understanding of unknown marine ecosystems, but would also be a useful way for Australia to exert diplomatic “soft power”.

Antarctica is increasingly attractive to the more affluent of China’s tourists. Butterfly voyages/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Finally, Australia has its own economic interests in Antarctica, such as sustainable fishing and tourism. Meanwhile, ever greater numbers of Chinese tourists are venturing abroad, with visits to Australia passing the 1 million mark last year. With Antarctica now also on the radar for China’s richer tourists, Australia could not only benefit economically but must also work closely with China to develop regulations that prevent this nascent industry from damaging the Antarctic environment.

All of this means we can reasonably expect Australian-Chinese ties to grow ever closer over the next two decades – even in the world’s remotest place.

This article is part of a series on Australian science and diplomacy in Antarctica. Look out for more articles in the coming days.

Nengye Liu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Social care | Women cleaning up the mess | Artificial turf | Resigning | Fishermen and Sturgeon

The plain fact is that we are not going to get proper funding for social care until we see providers either exiting the market, or refusing unsustainable contracts (Letters, 7 July). This must be a warning to local authorities and the government that once this sector starts to fail it will also bring the NHS to breaking point because nobody can be discharged. At which point we hope the minister of state might finally get it into his head that social care is an essential part of the system.
Professor Martin Green
Chief executive, Care England

• So Die Welt writer Mara Delius expresses the view that Merkel, May, Sturgeon et al are coming along to “clean up the mess created by the men” (Report, 6 July). Or, as the teacher Mrs Lintott put it in Alan Bennett’s The History Boys: “History is women following behind, with a bucket.” Precisely.
Margaret Farnworth
Liverpool

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Around 90% of the world’s stocks are now fully or overfished and production is set to increase further by 2025, according to report from UN’s food body

Global fish production is approaching its sustainable limit, with around 90% of the world’s stocks now fully or overfished and a 17% increase in production forecast by 2025, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

Overexploitation of the planet’s fish has more than tripled since the 1970s, with 40% of popular species like tuna now being caught unsustainably, the UN FAO’s biannual State of the world’s fisheries report says.

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Average temperature of 71.8F is 3.3F above 20th-century average for the month and comes amid a string of climate- and weather-related calamities

The US experienced its warmest ever June last month, with a scorching summer set to compound a string of climate-related disasters that have already claimed dozens of lives and cost billions of dollars in damage this year.

Worldwide, heat records have been broken for 13 months in a row, an unprecedented streak of warmth that has stunned climate scientists and heightened concerns over the future livability of parts of the planet.

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About 90% of forests off the western coast were wiped out between 2011 to 2013, posing a threat to biodiversity and the marine economy, say scientists

A hundred kilometres of kelp forests off the western coast of Australia were wiped out by a marine heatwave between 2010 and 2013, a new study has revealed.

About 90% of the forests that make up the north-western tip of the Great Southern Reef disappeared over the period, replaced by seaweed turfs, corals, and coral fish usually found in tropical and subtropical waters.

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From mid-June onwards, ice cover disappeared at an average rate of 29,000 miles a day, about 70% faster than the typical rate of ice loss, experts say

The summer sea ice cover over the Arctic raced towards oblivion in June, crashing through previous records to reach a new all-time low.

The Arctic sea ice extent was a staggering 260,000 sq km (100,000 sq miles) below the previous record for June, set in 2010. And it was 1.36m sq km (525,000 sq miles) below the 1981-2010 long-term average, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

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Campaigners welcome decision to turn down National Farming Union’s application for ‘emergency’ use of neonicotinoids for oil seed rape, reports ENDS

An application to use neonicotinoid pesticides to protect winter oilseed rape has been refused by government for the second time.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) concluded that the request did not meet the criteria for emergency use of two seed treatment agents to fight cabbage stem flea beetle, according to a statement issued by the National Farming Union (NFU) on 5 July.

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UN’s former climate change chief, who was a key architect of the Paris climate agreement, joins long list of candidates to succeed Ban Ki-moon

One of the chief architects of the global accord on climate change signed last year in Paris has been nominated for the post of secretary general of the United Nations.

Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), won plaudits from around the world at the successful conclusion of the Paris talks in December. The summit saw all of the world’s nations agree for the first time to a binding commitment to avoid dangerous levels of global warming.

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A doomed Japanese satellite managed to capture a spectacular view of a cluster of galaxies 250 million light years away just before it died, scientists reveal.

The impact of India’s drought, a remote volcanic eruption and an oasis in the Sahara and were among the images captured by European Space Agency and Nasa satellites last month

Stagnant lakes stretch east-west across the upper reaches of the Volga river delta in southern Russia. The lakes are trapped by sandy mounds, left behind after the Caspian Sea’s level rose then fell in the wake of the last ice age.

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Week-long foraging trip from the Channel Islands to Scandinavian waters and back is the longest recorded for the species, conservationists say

A gannet has returned home after a fishing trip of almost 1,700 miles (2,700 km), the longest recorded for the species, conservationists said.

Cosmo, a northern gannet which lives on Alderney in the Channel Islands, made the foraging trip up the English Channel, across the North Sea and into Scandinavian waters - and back - in less than a week.

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A month-old male giant panda cub in Belgium's Pairi Daiza wildlife park is growing fast and gaining weight - but still not quite standing up.

Rightwing MEPs vote to slow down the introduction of the new rules that could delay simple, colour-coded system until 2030

Householders in Europe buying a new boiler could face confusing energy labels until as late as 2030, after rightwing MEPs voted to slow down an introduction of the new rules in the European parliament on Wednesday.

The current labelling system means a product rated at A+ may be the least efficient appliance in its class due to the introduction of A+++ labels, prompting a European commission proposal to replace the grading with a simpler A-G format.

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Climate Science Legal Defense Fund is forced to defend climate scientists against constant frivolous lawsuits

Today’s climate scientists have a lot more to worry about than peer review. Organizations with perverse financial incentives harass scientists with lawsuit after lawsuit, obstructing research and seeking to embarrass them with disclosures of private information.

On June 14th, an Arizona court ruled that thousands of emails from two prominent climate scientists must be turned over to the Energy & Environment Legal Institute (E&E), a group that disputes the 97% expert consensus on human-caused climate change and argues against action to confront it. E&E and its attorneys are funded by Peabody Coal, Arch Coal, and Alpha Natural Resources, coal corporations with billions of dollars in revenue.

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Mongabay: New IUCN assessment shows hunting and habitat loss are the biggest drivers, with experts warning ‘conservation is failing’

The Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) is now critically endangered according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This change means that both species of orangutan now face an “extremely high risk of extinction in the wild.”

“This is full acknowledgement of what has been clear for a long time: orangutan conservation is failing,” Andrew Marshall, one of the authors of the assessment, told Mongabay. Regardless of any positive outcomes of past conservation efforts, they have not achieved the only meaningful goal: a stable or increasing population.

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Katter says he raised the issue in negotiating his support for a possible minority Coalition government, but says it would be ‘unacceptable’ for Indian miner Adani to own it

Bob Katter has canvassed federal funding for the Galilee basin railway in talks with Malcolm Turnbull but says it would be “totally unacceptable” for the Indian coalminer Adani to own it.

Katter said he raised the issue as a factor of his support for a possible minority Coalition government with Turnbull in Brisbane on Thursday but “we’ve done no deals”.

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The government’s climate change advisors have given a cautious green light to fracking in the UK.

Government advisers also say more action would be needed to cut emissions in other areas to cope with full-scale fracking

Shale gas production will break the UK’s climate change targets unless there is stricter regulation now, according to the government’s official advisers.

More action to cut carbon emissions in other areas would also be needed to cope with full-scale fracking, despite the government already struggling to meet existing commitments.

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Global per capita fish consumption passes the 20kg per year mark for the first time, but natural marine resources continue to be overfished, UN data shows.