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At most, the current orthodoxy – despite its renewable energy, electric vehicles and energy efficiency – will result in flat or gently declining emissions. It's time to stick it up the orthodoxy!

Rick Perry's plan to require increased payments to some coal plants is part of a global trend as the coal lobby desperately tries to rescue failing coal plants.

The Turnbull Government today welcomed the discovery of the wreck of SS Macumba, sunk during the Second World War by Japanese air attack in the Arafura Sea north-east of Darwin.

The remains of a passenger liner torpedoed by a U-boat just hours into the war may have been found.

Coupled with anticipated risk to employee and customer safety and physical assets, unprepared distribution utilities must act now to improve cybersecurity capabilities.

Romilly Madew, CEO of GBCA, has been awarded the prestigious WorldGBC Chairman’s Award for her work to advance sustainable building globally.

From heatwaves to intense rainfall and severe cold weather, Europe experiences its fair share of weather extremes.

In an open access study, published in Environmental Research Letters, David Karoly and I have found that without limiting global warming, Europe is likely to see even more severe heat, less frequent extreme cold, and more intense rain events.

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to limit the global temperature increase to “well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃”, so as to “significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”.

Read more: What is a pre-industrial climate and why does it matter?

Our analysis compares temperature and rainfall extremes under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ levels of global warming, with these same events in the current climate (with global warming of just over 1℃) and a pre-industrial climate.

Hotter, and more frequent, heat extremes

As the world warms up, so does Europe, although more in the Mediterranean and the east and less over Scandinavia and the British Isles.

We studied changes in a few different heat events, including hot summers like the record of 2003 in Central Europe. A blocking high pressure pattern led to persistent sunny hot weather across much of the continent, which dried out the region and enhanced the heat. Temperature records tumbled across the continent, with new national records for daily maximum temperatures in France, the UK and other countries. Previous work has already found a clear human fingerprint in both the event itself and the excess deaths associated with the heat.

Our study projects hot summers like 2003 will become more frequent at 1.5℃ and 2℃ of global warming. At 2℃ of global warming, Central European hot summers like 2003 would very likely occur in most years.

Hot European summers like 2003 become more frequent at higher levels of global warming. Bars show best estimates of the chance of an event per year, with the black lines showing 90% confidence intervals. Author provided

We also find an increasing likelihood of events like the recent record hot year in Europe in 2016 and the record hot year in Central England in 2014 under the Paris Agreement’s targeted levels of global warming.

… But fewer, and less intense, cold extremes

The December of 2010 was exceptionally cold across the British Isles, as a lack of weather systems crossing the Atlantic allowed air from the north and the east to frequently cross the region. There was a new cold temperature record for Northern Ireland and persistent cold weather across the UK and Ireland, with long runs of sub-zero days. Heavy snowfall caused widespread disruption for days at a time.

A snowy scene at Worcester Cathedral in December 2010. David King

Our analysis finds that such a cold December was already very unlikely to occur in the current climate, and would be extremely unlikely under either 1.5℃ or 2℃ of global warming. Future cold weather events would still be associated with similar weather patterns, but the background warming in the climate system would make them less intense than in the world of today or under pre-industrial conditions.

When it rains, it pours

We also studied extreme rain events, in particular the heavy rain that led to large-scale flooding in England and Wales in May, June and July of 2007. Low pressure systems passed over the British Isles almost continually for that three-month period, so the rain was falling on already saturated ground. On July 19 and 20 more than 100mm of rain fell on a broad swathe of the English Midlands. This record-breaking rainfall resulted in some of the worst floods in British history.

The River Teme near Worcester, England in flood in July 2007. David King

Extended rainy periods like May-July 2007 are very rare, and not projected to become more frequent at 1.5℃ or 2℃ of global warming.

However, extreme rainfall days like we saw during that period are projected to become both more frequent and more intense in a warmer world. In a 2℃ world we would expect very heavy rain days to be at least 70% more frequent than in the current climate over the UK and Ireland.

Clear benefits to keeping a lid on global warming

Many of the most costly extreme weather events in Europe, in particular extreme heat and intense rainfall events, are projected to become more common, even at the relatively low levels of global warming that are being targeted under the Paris Agreement.

More frequent heat extremes expected as the globe warms up. Best estimates of the likelihood of extreme events are shown (with 90% confidence intervals in parentheses). T means average temperature and R means total rainfall. TXx and TNn mean the hottest daily maximum and coldest daily minimum, respectively, while Rx1day means the wettest single day. Author provided

The worst impacts of these events can be avoided through improving the planning and responses for such events, whether it is increasing support for the elderly in France during summer heatwaves or improving flood protection on major rivers in Britain.

However, limiting global warming to 1.5℃, rather than 2℃ or more, would reduce the frequency with which these extreme event responses would need to be implemented.

Put simply, to prevent a more extreme future for Europe’s weather, we need to keep the lid on global warming.

Disclosure

Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

Spot market jumps to highest levels since May as staged transition unveiled to changes in credits for lighting upgrades.

AECOM Australia & New Zealand has made three key appointments to its growing power industry team.

Impact officially opens Williamsdale solar farm in ACT, and puts together portfolio of solar assets in NSW, Victoria and Queensland for a second solar investment fund.

Charlie Veron was the first full-time scientist to study the Great Barrier Reef in the 1970s — now he fears for its future.

Business as usual is not an option. CSIRO/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

One does not have to look far to see signs that the oil and gas industry has a bumpy road ahead. Demand might stay high for decades, but given the dizzying pace of technological change, who would bet on that?

Take the recent pledges by India, France, Britain, and China to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles. Or the plummeting costs of grid-scale solar power, rapidly becoming cheaper than fossil-fuelled electricity.

These developments should cause oil and gas companies to think very carefully about their next move. Big investments in natural gas globally, made on the assumption that gas is a bridge to a clean energy future, may fall flat because renewables are developing so swiftly.

The fact of the matter is that oil and gas companies need to start planning for a low-carbon future and embrace the opportunities it presents. One approach is to diversify their products and embrace renewable energy, one of four strategies that CSIRO has identified in its industry-led Oil and Gas Roadmap that outlines some of the future directions the industry might take.

Read more: Big oil’s offshore scramble is risky business all round

With 40% of companies involved in the exploration and production of petroleum likely to move away from oil and gas in 2017, solar photovoltaics and energy storage offer alternative avenues in which oil and gas companies can invest.

Renewables can be integrated into operations to reduce both the cost and the carbon intensity of operations. In the longer term, these technologies could help energy companies to develop more sophisticated offerings. For instance, hybrid solar and gas microgrids could be sold to developing nations, allowing them to leapfrog from energy poverty into clean, cheap distributed energy for all, effectively skipping expensive, centralised electricity grid infrastructure.

The Oil and Gas roadmap. Gas-powered ships

Two more strategic opportunities focus on expanding the potential of the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel: natural gas.

For example, global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) for transport is expected to grow fourfold to 100 million tonnes a year by 2030, a prime target being maritime shipping. Meeting this LNG demand could open up a valuable market for Australia.

Another opportunity lies in the creation of higher-value products. Natural gas can be converted to many refined products that can fetch higher margins in the market, including diesel and other chemicals such as methanol and dimethyl ether.

More investment is needed to make conversion technology economically competitive, but it would be a wise investment, especially in light of Australia’s lack of domestic strategic fuel reserves.

Read more: Running on empty: Australia’s risky approach to oil supplies

Hydrogen fuel is another possibility for Australian resource companies. It can be produced from gas, but in the future hydrogen fuel could also be manufactured by solar-powered electrolysis of water. Both would be good options, given Australia’s abundance of gas and sunlight.

Investments will be needed to improve the production and transport economics of hydrogen, including the development of efficient technologies that can convert hydrogen carriers (like ammonia) to hydrogen at the point of use.

Smarter fuel options. CSIRO, Author provided

Our roadmap also suggests other ways for companies to get involved in the energy transition, by becoming more efficient, less wasteful, and more productive.

Advanced environmental solutions point to ways to improve water quality and reuse, reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions (including sequestering carbon dioxide, controlling fugitive emissions, and finding alternatives to flaring), and finding the best ways to decommission assets like wells and offshore platforms after their useful life is over.

The industry needs to be much more efficient in exploring and producing oil and gas so that the life of existing assets can be lengthened, often using less environmentally damaging approaches such as waterless fracturing and reservoir rejuvenation using microbes. Robots and artificial intelligence could also help to improve efficiency and safety.

The oil and gas sector has an important role to play in the future of the energy sector, but that role is changing. Companies need to be proactive to remain relevant. If they pursue some of the opportunities outlined here, they will help ensure they stay viable into the future.

Jerad A. Ford has previously received research funding and scholarships from the UQ Centre for Coal Seam Gas while a student and post-doc researcher at the University of Queensland Business School.

For the Soviet Union, the launch of the satellite was a triumph not just for science. but socialism.

When two Dutch journalists travelled to the DRC to report on illegal gold mining in the vast Okapi wildlife reserve, they ended up running for their lives

Conflict is never far away in the Democratic Republic of Congo – a country rich in natural resources such as gold, diamonds, coltan and tin – and the country is on the brink of a new civil war. Tensions have been rising since December, when President Joseph Kabila postponed the elections.

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Meet Mochi from South Dakota, who has just bagged herself a Guinness World Record.

It’s time the world woke up to the real impact of modern, industrial farming, says Philip Lymbery, author of Farmageddon and the Deadzone

The world desperately needs joined-up action on industrial farming if it is to avoid catastrophic impacts on life on earth, according to the head of one of the world’s most highly regarded animal campaign groups.

Philip Lymbery, chief executive of Compassion in World Farming (CIWF) and the author of Farmageddon and more recently Deadzone, said: “Every day there is a new confirmation of how destructive, inefficient, wasteful, cruel and unhealthy the industrial agriculture machine is. We need a total rethink of our food and farming systems before it’s too late.”

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The Nobel prize in chemistry is awarded to three scientists for advances in the imaging of biological molecules

Tepco, still struggling to decommission Fukushima Daiichi, gets initial approval to start two reactors at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa

The operator of Japan’s stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been given initial approval to restart reactors at another atomic facility, marking the first step towards the firm’s return to nuclear power generation more than six years after the March 2011 triple meltdown.

Japan’s nuclear regulator on Wednesday approved an application from Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco) to restart two reactors at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa – the world’s biggest nuclear power plant – even as the utility struggles to decommission Fukushima Daiichi.

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South Africa’s rising poaching problem has seen a shocking 6,115 rhinos killed in the last nine years. Saving the Survivors’ ground-breaking initiative sees a small team of vets race to the scene to try and treat the animals before it’s too late

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Exclusive: Every area of the capital breaches global standards for PM2.5 pollution particles, with most areas exceeding levels by at least 50%

The scale of London’s air pollution crisis was laid bare on Wednesday, with new figures showing that every person in the capital is breathing air that exceeds global guidelines for one of the most dangerous toxic particles.

The research, based on the latest updated London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, shows that every area in the capital exceeds World Health Organisation (WHO) limits for a damaging type of particle known as PM2.5.

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